In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Packers vs. Chiefs Prediction
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Table of Contents
- Introduction & Team Review
- The Running Game
- The Passing Game
- Final Outlook & Prediction
- Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com
- Latest Updates, Injury Reports, & Line Movements
- Insiders' Best Bets
Last Updated: Saturday, October 26, 2019 at 10:14pm EDT
It’s an interconference battle that may have lost a little luster thanks to a big injury last week down in the Show Me State. The Green Bay Packers are on the road as they travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday night. Green Bay comes in off a 42-24 home win over Oakland in their previous contest last Sunday. Kansas City overcame a major injury to blow out Denver 30-6 on the road on Thursday Night Football in their previous contest October 17. The Chiefs lead the all-time regular season series 7-3-1 though the Packers took a 38-28 win at home in the most recent matchup on September 28, 2015.
Green Bay Packers Review
Green Bay has overcome some tough contests and prevailed in several close games as they come into this contest 6-1 on the season. The Packers enter week 8 with a one-game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North. Green Bay won their season opener 10-3 on the road over the Bears and followed that up with a 21-16 home win over Minnesota in week two. The Packers earned a home win over Denver (27-16) before suffering their first loss of the season at home to the Eagles on Thursday Night Football in week 4 (34-27) thanks to two long drives fizzling in the fourth quarter. Green Bay bounced back by jumping on Dallas early on the road en route to a 34-24 win. The Packers, despite being banged up, got their offense going against the Raiders.
In their week 7 matchup against an Oakland team coming off a bye with two straight wins in their pocket, the Packers made all the big plays to come up with the victory. Green Bay was down 10-7 late in the second quarter before taking the lead for good with 3:27 to play in the half on a Jamaal Williams two-yard TD reception. The Packers’ defense then came up with the biggest play of the game, forcing David Carr to fumble through the end zone for a touchdown. Rather than trailing 17-14, the Packers led 14-10: they scored a touchdown with 12 seconds to play in the first half and then scored on the opening drive of the second half to go up 28-10. Green Bay didn’t see their lead trimmed below 11 the rest of the way. The Packers were edged 484-481 in total offense but had 22 first downs to Oakland’s 21 while owning a 30:24 to 29:36 edge in time of possession. Green Bay forced two turnovers while not committing one in the contest.
Kansas City Chiefs Review
Kansas City started the season where they left off last year but hit a speed bump of late. The Chiefs opened the season with four straight victories, rolling over the Jaguars (40-26) and Raiders (28-10) before winning a pair of close games over Baltimore (33-28) at home and Detroit (34-30) on the road. Kansas City has battled through injuries to skill position players but they’ve been held in check for long stretches in the last couple of games. The Chiefs were neutralized by the Colts in a 19-13 home loss in week five before falling to Houston at home in week six. That set the stage for an AFC West tilt with the Broncos last week.
The Chiefs were punched in the mouth early against Denver as they gave up a 10 play, 75-yard drive that ended up in a Denver touchdown. After the Broncos went for two and were stuffed by the Kansas City defense, the Chiefs seemed to wake up. Kansas City led 10-6 after the opening quarter and opened a 20-6 edge at the half. The defense took center stage, recording nine sacks and scoring a touchdown on a Reggie Ragland fumble return for a score. Kansas City did lose reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes with a dislocated knee: while initial reports have him out at least three weeks, the team says that he is rehabbing well and could return sooner, though coach Andy Reid says that it would “be a stretch” to see him playing this week. The Chiefs outgained the Broncos 271-205 and owned the time of possession by a 32:13 to 27:47 margin despite giving up 15 first downs to their 14. Kansas City forced the game’s lone turnover, which they cashed in immediately for seven points.
The Running Game
Green Bay Packers Running Offense
Kansas City Chiefs Running Defense
Green Bay Packers Running Offense
Green Bay’s run game struggled in the first quarter of the season and they’re still trying to be more consistent in the ground game. The Packers cracked the century mark just once and averaged more than four yards per carry only one time in their first four games. Green Bay was stifled in the opener, running the ball 21 times for 47 yards against the Bears. The Packers had a season-high 144 yards plus a score on 33 carries against the Vikings before being held in check the last two weeks. Green Bay ran 23 times for 77 yards and two scores against Denver in week 3 and 20 times for 77 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia in week 4. The last couple of games has seen the run game improve: the Packers ran the ball 29 times for 120 yards and four scores against Dallas before adding 29 carries for 170 yards against Detroit in week six. Against the Raiders in week seven, the team regressed to previous form as they ran the ball 23 times for only 60 yards.
Aaron Jones is the leading ground gainer for the Packers though his numbers are hardly impressive. He has 101 carries for 399 yards and eight touchdowns on the season. Jamaal Williams has 43 carries for 196 yards while Aaron Rodgers has 19 rushing attempts for 68 yards and a score on the season. As a team, the Packers have just one run play that covered at least 20 yards. Green Bay has mustered only 39 first downs via the ground game this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Run Defense
The Chiefs have had their problems stopping opposing on the ground this season, much as they did in 2018. Kansas City suffers at stopping opposing teams as their bend but don't break strategy led to some quick strikes by the opposition. The Chiefs have had their struggles so far this season as they've given up more than five yards per carry in four of their six contests. Kansas City allowed 16 carries for 81 yards to Jacksonville in the opener and saw the Raiders run the ball 19 times for 129 yards in week 2. The run defense continued to be an issue as Baltimore pounded the ball on the ground 32 times for 203 yards and four scores. Kansas City’s struggles continued as the Lions (35 carries, 186 yards), Colts (45 carries, 180 yards, TD) and Texans (41 carries, 192 yards, three TD) have sliced through the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs managed to control the scoreboard and contain the Broncos’ run game as they allowed 21 carries for a season-low 71 yards in their win last week.
Linebacker Damien Wilson (forced fumble) leads the team with 44 tackles on the year. Corner Kendall Fuller (31 tackles, Anthony Hitchens (33 tackles), Charvarius Ward (39 tackles, forced fumble) and Tyrann Mathieu (34 tackles) are among the team's leaders in tackles. Frank Clark (17 tackles, two forced fumbles, fumble recovery) leads the team with six tackles for loss on the year. Emmanuel Ogbah (24 tackles, forced fumble) contributes 5.5 tackles for loss while Tanon Kpassagnon (14 tackles, forced fumble) has four. As a team, the Chiefs have racked up 38 tackles for loss while forcing 10 fumbles and recovering five so far this season.
- 18th in run play percentage (40.59 percent)
- 20th in rushing attempts per game (25.6)
- 20th in rushing yards per game (99.3)
- 20th in yards per carry (3.9)
- Tied for 7th in rushing TD (nine)
- 12th in longest rush (45 yards)
- 25th in percentage of run plays against (43.36 percent)
- 26th in run plays per game against (29.9)
- 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (148.9)
- 30th in opposing yards per carry (five)
- Tied for 28th in rushing TD allowed (nine)
- 19th in longest rush allowed (51 yards)
Who has the Edge?
The Packers haven't been running the ball all that well this season but they get a chance to face a Kansas City defense that is weak against the run. Kansas City has been carved up on the ground even though they were solid against the Broncos' run game last week. It's going to be a test for the Chiefs to find a way to make it work for the second straight week. Based on what we've seen this season, that's not something you can rely on. Jones had a big game against Dallas this season: look for him to be solid and help the Packers do some damage on the ground.
Advantage: Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs Running Offense
Green Bay Packers Running Defense
Kansas City Chiefs Running Offense
The rushing attack was a secondary option for Kansas City last season and things aren't all that different so far in 2019 either. The Chiefs are intent on trying to do damage through the air and making the run game only relevant when it comes to trying to bleed the clock or to set up something else. Kansas City was relatively effective pounding the ball against the Jaguars in the opener, picking up 26 carries for 113 yards and a score, but things tapered off in week 2. The Chiefs were completely bottled up by the Raiders' run defense as they ran the ball 22 times for only 31 yards in the victory. Kansas City was more effective on the ground against Baltimore as they ran the ball 26 times for a season-high 140 yards plus a score. The Chiefs followed that up with 25 carries for 123 yards plus three scores against the Lions in week four but they’ve been held in check the last two weeks. Kansas City struggled against Indianapolis (14 carries, 36 yards) and Houston (11 carries, 53 yards, TD) in weeks five and six. The Chiefs didn’t have a ton of success in week seven as they ran the ball 27 times for 80 yards.
LeSean McCoy, who was picked up after the Bills cut him at the end of preseason, leads the team with 60 carries for 322 yards plus two scores on the year. Damien Williams has 41 carries but has totaled only 70 yards plus a score. He's missed a couple games already this season with a knee injury. Darwin Thompson (four carries, nine yards) and Darrel Williams (17 carries, 75 yards, two TD) are further down the pecking order in the run game. Kansas City has six run plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season while picking up 41 first downs via the ground game. McCoy leads the team with four such plays while Mahomes (17 carries, 82 yards) and Darrel Williams have the others.
Green Bay Packers Run Defense
Green Bay's defense has struggled containing the run game of the opposition this season: five teams have run for at least 100 yards against them this season. After holding the Bears to just 47 yards on 22 carries in the opener, things went downhill for the Packers. Green Bay allowed Minnesota to run the ball 27 times for 198 yards and a score in week 2 and followed that up by seeing Denver run 38 times for 149 yards and two scores in week 3. Against the Eagles in week 4, the Packers were gouged for 176 yards and two scores on 33 carries. Green Bay gave up 122 yards on the ground to the Cowboys in week five before stifling the Lions as they held Detroit to only 56 yards last in week six. The Packers regressed in week seven as they gave up 31 carries for 155 yards in the contest against the Raiders.
Blake Martinez leads the Packers with 76 tackles (48 solo) on the season. Safety Adrian Amos (39 tackles) and linebacker Preston Smith (24 tackles, forced fumble), along with cornerback Kevin King (31 tackles, forced fumble) and Will Redmond (29 tackles) are among the team’s tackle leaders. Preston Smith leads the team with 6.5 tackles for loss while Za’Darius Smith has six and Martinez contributes 4.5 this season. As a team, the Packers have recorded 28 tackles for loss, seven forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries on the season.
- 26th in run play percentage (35.71 percent)
- 25th in rushing attempts per game (21.4)
- 25th in rushing yards per game (82.3)
- 21st in yards per carry (3.8)
- Tied for 18th in rushing TD (five)
- Tied for 15th in longest rush (41 yards)
- 19th in percentage of run plays against (41.76 percent)
- 19th in run plays per game against (26.4)
- 24th in rushing yards allowed per game (128.9)
- 26th in opposing yards per carry (4.9)
- Tied for 17th in rushing TD allowed (seven)
- 27th in longest rush allowed (75 yards)
Who has the Edge?
Kansas City hasn't run the ball much this season, which is a similar M.O. to what they did last season. With Mahomes missing, one has to wonder if the Chiefs will be more committed to running the ball here to take pressure off Moore. Green Bay has been carved up on the ground this season and that is something that has to be watched out for in this one. The Packers have been unable to stop opposing teams from moving the sticks on the ground but unless the Chiefs commit to it, then this one is a wash at best.
The Passing Game
Green Bay Packers Passing Offense
vs. Kansas City Chiefs Passing Defense
Green Bay Packers Passing Offense
The Packers have improved offensively as the season has worn on as they continue becoming more comfortable with Matt LaFleur’s offensive system. Green Bay threw for 240 yards against the Bears in the season opener in a low-scoring victory. Against Minnesota in week two, the Packers threw for 209 yards and followed that up with 235 yards in a victory over Denver in week 3. In week four against the Eagles, Green Bay racked up 422 yards against the shredded Eagles’ secondary, though those numbers came in a loss. Green Bay threw for 238 yards against Dallas in week five and followed that up with 283 yards against Detroit Monday night. The Packers put up a season-high 429 yards through the air in their win over Oakland, helped by shoddy tackling and poor coverage.
Aaron Rodgers has hit 162 of 250 passes for 2,019 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He has been sacked 12 times, losing 100 yards in the process. Davante Adams is second on the team with 25 receptions for 378 yards on the season: he’s missed the last three weeks with a toe injury. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (21 catches, 416 yards, two TD) and Aaron Jones (team-high 27 grabs, 196 yards, TD) are solid secondary options in the passing game this season The Packers need more from Jimmy Graham (18 catches, 214 yards, three TD) and Geronimo Allison (17 receptions, 177 yards, two TD) in order to take pressure off Adams. Green Bay has 31 pass plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season: Valdez-Scantling leads the team with seven such plays while Adams has five: Graham, Allison and fullback Danny Vitale (six catches, 94 yards) each have three.
Kansas City Chiefs Passing Defense
Kansas City's big thing defensively last season came via their pass rush as the team was pounding opposing quarterbacks into the dirt on a regular basis. The Chiefs haven't had that success as much this season and it's proven to be a bit of an issue. Kansas City made a rookie pressed into action (Gardner Minshew) look like Joe Montana in the opener before falling behind early against Derek Carr and the Raiders. The Chiefs gave up 350 yards and three scores in the opener: they held the Raiders to 198 yards in week 2 of the season. Kansas City helped keep Lamar Jackson in check, holding him to just over a 50 percent completion rate while allowing 249 yards through the air, in week 3. The Chiefs gave up 291 yards to the Lions in week four before holding the run-happy Colts to 151 yards in week five. In week six against Houston, Kansas City gave up 280 yards through the air: they had no sacks in weeks five and six. Against the Broncos in week seven, the Chiefs allowed 213 yards through the air but recorded a season-high nine sacks.
The Chiefs have to get a better pass rush going and that's something that has yet to come to fruition after trading Dee Ford and seeing Justin Houston leave via free agency. Ogbah leads the team with 3.5 sacks on the season. Clark and Alex Okafor (17 tackles, three tackles for loss, forced fumble, pass defense) each have three while Chris Jones (11 tackles, two tackles for loss, pass defense, fumble recovery) and Hitchens each have two. That's a far cry from what we saw last season. Mathieu leads the team with five pass defenses while Ward and Bashaud Breeland (24 tackles, two fumble recoveries, TD) each have four to tie for second on the team. Ward leads the team with two interceptions while Juan Thornhill (22 tackles, two pass defenses), Mathieu, Breeland and Clark each have one interception. As a team, the Chiefs have totaled 20 sacks, 30 pass defenses and six interceptions on the year.
- 15th in pass play percentage (59.41 percent)
- 15th in completion percentage (64.8)
- 8th in passing yards per game (274.1)
- Tied for 5th in TD passes (13)
- Tied for 4th in INT thrown (two)
- 6th in net yards per pass attempt (7.7)
- 8th in longest pass play (74 yards)
- 4th in passer rating (103.7)
- 8th in pass play percentage against (56.64 percent)
- 9th in passing yards per game allowed (228.6)
- 12th in completion percentage allowed (64)
- Tied for 10th in TD passes allowed (eight)
- Tied for 9th in INT (six)
- Tied for 5th in sacks (20)
- Tied for 9th in passer rating allowed (84.9)
- 8th in net yards per pass attempt (6.3)
Who has the Edge?
While the Chiefs have been good against the pass this season, it's hard to have a ton of faith in a team that has problems on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas City has to be better defensively here, especially if Mahomes is out as expected, because Moore is nowhere near the dynamic playmaker that the reigning MVP is. Green Bay is coming off their best offensive showing of the season by bombing the Raiders. Rodgers has been effective doing damage through the air, even with injuries to the receiving corps. Adams could return this week, which would only make Green Bay that much more dangerous.
Advantage: Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs Passing Offense
Green Bay Packers Passing Defense
Kansas City Chiefs Passing Offense
One thing that we saw last season was that the Chiefs were aggressive with their aerial assault. The fact that Patrick Mahomes won the league MVP last season by lighting up opposing defenses is something that isn’t overlooked but is hard to stop nonetheless. Even with opposing teams knowing that the passing attack is the key of Kansas City's offense, it's something that has worked in the first six games of the season. The Chiefs threw for 378 yards in the opening game of the season and piled up 443 yards through the air against the Raiders last week. Even with the ground game being more effective against Baltimore, Kansas City racked up another 374 yards through the air in the week 3 win. The Chiefs posted 300-yard performances against the Lions (315 yards) and Colts (321 yards) before falling short in the loss against Houston (273 yards) in week six. Last week against the Broncos, Kansas City was held to a season-low 193 yards, in large part due to the Mahomes injury.
Mahomes has hit on 157 of 241 passes for 2,180 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception on the season to date. He's been sacked eight times for a loss of 68 yards. Matt Moore is 10 of 20 for 117 yards and a score: he has been sacked once for a loss of two yards. Sammy Watkins is second on the team with 23 receptions for 365 yards plus three scores: he’s been hampered by an ankle injury the last few weeks. Tight end Travis Kelce (team high 38 grabs, 541 yards, TD) is his usual self while Damien Williams has 15 grabs out of the backfield for 115 yards and a score. Demarcus Robinson (20 catches, 312 yards, three TD), rookie Mecole Hardman (18 catches, 319 yards, two TD) and Byron Pringle (10 receptions, 147 yards, TD) all stepped up while Tyreek Hill (10 catches, 170 yards, three TD) and Watkins have missed time. The Chiefs have 32 pass plays of at least 20 yards on the season: Kelce has seven to lead the team while Watkins has six: Hardman and Robinson are next in line as each has four.
Green Bay Packers Passing Defense
Green Bay was active in free agency trying to find new pieces for the defensive side of the ball and it has helped pay dividends in the pass rush. The Packers were solid in the first quarter of the season as they didn’t allow more than 230 yards through the air in any game this season. Green Bay allowed 228 yards to the Bears in the opener while keeping Chicago out of the end zone. The Packers gave up 230 yards to Minnesota in week 2 and 213 yards to Denver in week 3. Against the Eagles in week 4, Green Bay gave up only 160 yards through the air, though they gave up three touchdown passes while not recording a sack or interception for the first time all season. It was tougher sledding the last couple of weeks as the Packers allowed 463 yards to the Cowboys, though much of it came in garbage time, before giving up 265 yards to the Lions Monday night in week 6. Last week against the Raiders, Green Bay had their problems, allowing 329 yards through the air.
Preston Smith leads the Packers with seven sacks on the season. Za’Darius Smith is next in line with six sacks while Kenny Clark (19 tackles, forced fumble) has 1.5 sacks on the year. Jaire Alexander (20 tackles, half-tackle for loss, forced fumble, fumble recovery) leads Green Bay with 10 pass defenses while King has eight. Preston Smith, Darnell Savage (18 tackles, half-tackle for loss, forced fumble) and Tramon Williams (13 tackles, forced fumble, fumble recovery) each have three. King leads the team with three interceptions while Savage, Preston Smith, Alexander, Chandon Sullivan (six tackles, pass defense) and Amos each have one interception this season. As a team, the Packers have totaled 18 sacks, 35 pass defenses and eight interceptions on the year.
- 7th in pass play percentage (64.29 percent)
- 19th in completion percentage (64)
- 1st in passing yards per game (318.1)
- Tied for 1st in TD passes (16)
- Tied for 1st in INT thrown (one)
- 3rd in net yards per pass attempt (8.5)
- Tied for 3rd in longest pass play (83 yards)
- 3rd in passer rating (110.9)
- 14th in pass play percentage against (58.24 percent)
- 21st in passing yards per game allowed (252.1)
- 7th in completion percentage allowed (60.4)
- Tied for 12th in TD passes allowed (nine)
- Tied for 3rd in INT (eight)
- Tied for 12th in sacks (18)
- 7th in passer rating allowed (83.8)
- 22nd in net yards per pass attempt (7.4)
Who has the Edge?
Kansas City has been effective through the air this season but the downgrade from Mahomes to Moore can be jarring. The Chiefs didn't do much offensively at all after Mahomes went out against the Broncos last week. That is something that has to be concerning for the Chiefs: even with the same complement of pass-catchers, the ability of Moore to make plays is nothing like what Mahomes brings to the table. Green Bay hasn't been great defensively this season but with Moore under center, the Chiefs' advantage in this department is neutralized.
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 10th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 26.3 points per game on the season. The Packers are 11th in the league in total offense with 373.4 yards per game and stand 9th in yards per play with 5.9 yards per snap. Green Bay is ninth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 19.9 points per contest. The Packers are 26th in total defense as they allow 381 yards per game and stand 25th as they give up six yards per play. Green Bay is tied for 3rd in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a +6 on the season.
The Packers are 4th in red zone success as they have cashed in 65.38 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Green Bay is 9th in red zone defense as they hold opposing teams to a 50 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Green Bay is a struggling 22nd in the league in third down conversions as they have converted 34.28 percent of their situations this season. The Packers are in the middle of the pack in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 38.1 percent of their third downs, which is 14th in the league. Green Bay is 7th in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 52.88 percent of the time.
Mason Crosby has hit all 22 extra point attempts and 10 of 11 field goal tries with a long of 48 on the season. Punter JK Scott has boomed the ball, averaging 49.2 yards on his 35 punts with a 44.4-yard net average. He has placed 14 punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line with only two touchbacks. Tremon Smith has averaged 22.7 yards on his three kick returns this season while Darrius Shepherd averages 16.3 yards on nine kick returns with a long of 21. On the season, the team has mustered negative eight yards on five punt returns. Tony Brown blocked an extra point against the Vikings in week 2.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs continue to be an offensive juggernaut this season as they are third in the league with 28.9 points per contest. Kansas City stands 3rd in the league in total offense as they average 400.4 yards per contest while ranking second in yards per play as they pick up 6.7 yards per snap. The Chiefs are currently 13th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 21.4 points per contest. Kansas City is 25th in the league in total defense by allowing 377.4 yards per game and 14th in yards per play by allowing 5.5 yards per snap. In giveaway/takeaway, the Chiefs are tied for 5th with a +4 ratio this season.
The Chiefs have struggled punching the ball into the end zone once they drive into the red zone as they are ranked 24th in the league by converting only 48 percent of their chances. Defensively, Kansas City has been decent so far this season, ranking 9th in red zone defense by allowing 50 percent of drives to reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. The Chiefs are near the top of the pack in third-down conversions, ranking 8th by converting 45.45 percent of their third-down situations so far this season. Kansas City’s defense is 12th in those situations as they hold the opposition to 35.96 percent success on their third downs. The Chiefs are 28th in the league in time of possession by holding the ball 45.8 percent of the time this season.
Harrison Butker is 22 of 23 on extra-point tries and has hit 14 of 16 field goals with a long of 46. Dustin Colquitt has averaged 43.9 yards on his 22 punts with a 40.7-yard net average per kick. He does have nine punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line but also has two touchbacks. Hardman has averaged 22.1 yards on his seven kick returns and has averaged 28 yards on two punt returns with a long of 36. De’Anthony Thomas has averaged 22.1 yards on seven kick returns and 4.2 yards on 13 punt returns with a long of 10 this season.
Who has the Edge?
Kansas City has really struggled in the red zone this season as they have cashed less than half their drives inside the 20 into touchdowns this season. That's not something you can have success with over the long term if you're settling for field goals instead of touchdowns. The Chiefs are good at extending their drives on the offensive side of the ball but that will be a challenge here. Green Bay is good in all facets of things offensively but they have some work to do defensively. On the plus side, the Packers are good at forcing takeaways to end up with the short field. Reid has the edge in the coaching department, which gives them a slight edge in this category.
Advantage: Kansas City Chiefs
If Mahomes was able to take the field and not be limited, this one would be a much different contest to say the least. Seeing how limited he was in practice this week and that he was fourth in the QB line, you have to assume he's not taking the field. Moore is an effective backup but he can't do what Mahomes does in the passing game. Green Bay has their weapons offensively and if Adams returns, they'll be that much more dangerous. The Packers get a break facing the Chiefs this week as game planning for Moore gives them a breather defensively.
The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Kansas City has gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. Without Mahomes, the Chiefs are average at best: give the points and take the Packers here.
Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements
There are injuries to marquee names on both sidelines for this one. Davante Adams is doubtful for the Packers as he continues to deal with a turf toe issue he suffered in week four against the Eagles. Center Corey Linsley is questionable with a back issue, which means Lucas Patrick might have to step in and contribute. Robert Tonyan, the third-string tight end, is doubtful with a hip injury. Blake Martinez is questionable with wrist and hand injuries: he practiced all week and was removed from the injury list Friday before being re-added Saturday. In addition, Darnell Savage is questionable with an ankle injury: Will Redmond would be in the mix again if he can't go.
Kansas City made it official Friday as their star QB, Patrick Mahomes, has been ruled out with his dislocated knee and an ankle sprain. That means Moore gets the call under center. Starting left guard Andrew Wylie and starting left tackle Erik Fisher are both out: that means Cam Erving starts at tackle while Martinas Rankin or Stefen Wisniewski would slot in at guard. On defense, the Chiefs have issues as well: defensive tackle Chris Jones and defensive end Frank Clark are both out. That means Khalen Saunders and either Emmanuel Ogbah or Tanon Kpassagnon will slot in as starters. Corner Kendall Fuller is out with a thumb injury, which means Morris Claiborne and Rashad Fenton slot into the nickel and dime spots. Darron Lee, the backup linebacker, is questionable with an illness.
The weather might not be a major issue in this one as it could be as close to perfect as you'll get in late-October in the Midwest. The game-time temperature is expected to be in the low-50s for this contest with partly cloudy skies. Winds are expected to come from the north between five and 10 miles an hour. There is currently a solid 0 percent chance of rain in the area for Sunday evening, which makes things solid for Rodgers and company to go to the air. All things considered, there's not a lot to complain about weather wise.
When the initial lines opened for this contest, the Chiefs were a four-point favorite with the over/under set at 47 points. As of Saturday afternoon, the line has moved substantially thanks to the Mahomes injury as the Packers are now sitting as a 4.5-point favorite in the contest. The over/under ticked downward slightly to 47.5 points in this contest. Currently, the moneyline shows Green Bay as a solid -220 to -250 favorite while the Chiefs can be found as a +180 to +200 underdog depending on the sportsbook. As of this writing, a solid 69 percent of the bets are backing the Packers -4.5 points. When it comes to the moneyline, a slight majority, 52 percent of the wagers, are backing the Packers as the visiting team. Meanwhile, 62 percent of bets are projecting this one to go over the total.
Kansas City is dealing with a slew of injury woes in this one and that's not good news for a team that has had serious deficiencies defensively when they were at full strength. The Chiefs are going to have their work cut out trying to slow down the Green Bay offense, which really clicked last week against the Raiders. Moore is a capable quarterback who has started in the league before and has his best collection of weapons in his career, but he's no Mahomes. Late in the game, you have to think that Green Bay has the advantage with Rodgers: that gives the Packers the upper hand.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers -4Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com
Additional Insiders' Best Bets
Full-game Total Bet
This one was going to be a track meet if Mahomes was actually on the field in this contest. Without him, you have to wonder how explosive the Chiefs' offense will be in this one. Moore has had time to practice with the first team and get up to speed but he doesn't have the physical attributes that Mahomes does. Kansas City's defense still has their problems, even with last week's showing against Denver. Green Bay had an offensive bonanza against the Raiders last week. Rodgers is clicking and he's making the most out of secondary and tertiary options in the passing game. Can the Chiefs slow him down or will Green Bay roll right over them?
The over is 18-4 in the Packers' last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points, 4-1 in their last 5 games overall and 20-6 in their last 26 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Kansas City has seen the over go 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings: look for Rodgers and company to put up solid point totals to end up over the total.
Half-time Side Bet
Green Bay has led at the half in five of their seven games this season and hasn't been down by more than three points at the half this season. The Packers trailed the Eagles 21-20 in week 4 and 13-10 to the Lions in week six on Monday Night Football. Kansas City has held the lead four times in their seven games and were tied in a fifth contest at the half this season. The Chiefs have held double-digit leads at the half four times this season but without Mahomes, it's a challenge here. Look for the Packers to hold the lead at the half in this contest as Moore struggles.
Half-time Total Bet
Both teams have put up some hefty point totals in the opening half of games this season. Green Bay is averaging just over 16 points a game in the opening half in their games this season while allowing just over 11. Kansas City has averaged just over 19 points a game in the first half this season while allowing 12 this season. That means an average game with these teams easily goes over this number. Given the way the Packers are playing right now, you have to think that 17-10 or something along those lines isn't out of the question. The over gets the nod here at the break, even without Mahomes.