In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Eagles vs. Bills Prediction
New Era Field, Orchard Park
Table of Contents
- Introduction & Team Review
- The Running Game
- The Passing Game
- Final Outlook & Prediction
- Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com
- Latest Updates, Injury Reports, & Line Movements
- Insiders' Best Bets
Last Updated: Sunday, October 27, 2019 at 2:02am EDT
It’s an interconference contest when a struggling team from the NFC East travels to Western New York to face an AFC East squad that has been a surprise so far this season. The Philadelphia Eagles are on the road as they travel to face the Buffalo Bills Sunday afternoon. Philadelphia comes in off a 37-10 thrashing on the road by Dallas last Sunday night in their previous contest. Buffalo knocked off Miami 31-21 at home in their previous game last Sunday. The Eagles own a 7-6 edge in the all-time regular season series between the teams, including a 23-20 home win in the last matchup on December 13, 2015.
Philadelphia Eagles Review
Philadelphia has been up and down this season with the needle firmly pointing in the downward direction at the moment. The Eagles opened the season with a 32-27 home win over the Redskins before losing close games on the road to the Falcons (24-20) and at home to the Lions (27-24) to drop to 1-2. Philadelphia rebounded with victories over Green Bay (34-27) on the road in a Thursday night game and then rolled over the Jets 31-6 at home. The last two weeks have been one-sided road losses as the Eagles were trounced by the Vikings (38-20) before going on the road to face Dallas last week.
The Eagles struggled in all facets of the game as the Cowboys ran them into oblivion to take over sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Philadelphia was in a 14-0 hole in the first 6:04 of the game with the Cowboys starting both drives on the plus side of the 50-yard line. After the Eagles got on the board, Dallas put together three scoring drives in the second quarter to take a 27-7 lead and put the game away. Philadelphia was outgained 402-283, gave up 23 first downs while picking up 16 and lost the time of possession battle 32:22 to 27:38 in the contest. The Eagles turned the ball over four times in the game while forcing just one takeaway. For the second straight week after a loss, Philadelphia cut defensive starters: after Minnesota, it was Zach Brown while after the Dallas game, Orlando Scandrick and Akeem Spence were cut loose.
Buffalo Bills Review
Buffalo has been off to a strong start this season as they have found ways to win close games this season. The Bills are 5-1 on the year and are the lone one-loss team in the AFC: the problem is, they stand behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Buffalo opened the year with a come from behind 17-16 win over the Jets on the road and then dumped the Giants 28-13 in the same stadium in week 2. The Bills rallied for a 21-17 home win over Cincinnati in week 3 before falling 16-10 to New England at home for their lone loss in week 4. Buffalo earned a hard-fought 14-7 road win over Tennessee to head into the bye with momentum. Coming out of the bye, the Bills had a home date with winless Miami.
The Bills had their struggles as they seemed to sleepwalk through most of the first two and a half quarters. Buffalo led 6-0 by kicking a couple of field goals and added a third in the second quarter yet trailed 14-9 as former Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick did damage. The turning point of the game came on the first drive of the third quarter: after Miami drove 63 yards in 16 plays, taking 9:59 off the clock, including converting a fake field goal, Tre White picked off Fitzpatrick at the two-yard line. Buffalo drove 98 yards in 12 plays to take the lead on a 20-yard touchdown pass to John Brown to take a lead they wouldn’t relinquish. The Bills were outgained 381-305, gave up 24 first downs while picking up 17 and lost the time of possession battle 33:31 to 26:29 in the game. Buffalo forced two turnovers, which they turned into 14 points, while not committing a turnover. The Bills also closed out the game by scoring on an onside kick return for a score by Micah Hyde: that was the first onside kick returned for a score since Tyjuan Hagler of the Colts turned the trick in 2010.
The Running Game
Philadelphia Eagles Running Offense
Buffalo Bills Running Defense
Philadelphia Eagles Running Offense
Philadelphia has been pretty solid moving the ball on the ground this season as they have run for more than 100 yards five times in the first seven weeks of the season. The Eagles had 31 carries for 123 yards and a score in week 1 against Washington, 30 carries for 127 yards plus a touchdown in week 3 against Detroit and 33 carries for a season-high 176 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in week 4. Against the Falcons in week 2, the Eagles finished with 21 carries for just 49 yards plus a touchdown: they had 29 carries for 84 yards and a score against the Jets in week 5. The Eagles have cracked the century mark despite one-sided defeats to the Vikings (22 carries, 108 yards) in week six and Cowboys (28 carries, 115 yards) in week seven.
Jordan Howard, who came over from the Bears in the offseason, leads the team with 77 carries for 347 yards and four scores this season. Rookie second-round pick Miles Sanders has 63 carries for 220 yards while Carson Wentz has 25 carries for 94 yards plus a score. Darren Sproles (15 carries, 59 yards) provides a spark as a change of pace or third-down back. Sanders has the team’s lone run play that has covered more than 20 yards this season: the team has moved the chains 43 times via the ground this season.
Buffalo Bills Run Defense
Buffalo has been pretty tough against the run this season as they’ve yet to allow more than 130 yards in a game on the ground this season. The Bills have an aggressive front seven that can plug holes and make life tough to find daylight. Five of Buffalo’s six opponents have been limited to 3.8 yards or less per carry on the season. The Bills have given up more than 100 yards three times this season: the Giants ran for 129 yards in week two, the Titans had 102 in week five (3.8 yards per carry) and the Dolphins had 109 last week, though they were held to 3.6 yards per carry.
Tremaine Edmunds leads the Bills with 43 tackles (25 solo) this season from his inside linebacker spot. Jordan Poyer (42 tackles, forced fumble, fumble recovery), Matt Milano (31 tackles, fumble recovery), Levi Wallace (31 tackles) and Lorenzo Alexander (31 tackles, forced fumble) each are among the team leaders in stops. Jordan Phillips (12 tackles, forced fumble) leads the team with seven tackles for loss while Edmunds has five: Shaq Lawson (eight tackles), Siran Neal (25 tackles) and Poyer each have 3.5 tackles for loss on the year. As a team, the Bills have 40 tackles for loss, six forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries on the year.
- 12th in run play percentage (42.83 percent)
- 10th in rushing attempts per game (27.7)
- 14th in rushing yards per game (111.7)
- 18th in yards per carry (four)
- Tied for 13th in rushing TD (six)
- Tied for 22nd in longest rush (30 yards)
- 9th in percentage of run plays against (37.74 percent)
- 9th in run plays per game against (23.3)
- 10th in rushing yards allowed per game (91.3)
- 10th in opposing yards per carry (3.9)
- Tied for 14th in rushing TD allowed (six)
- 7th in longest rush allowed (27 yards)
Who has the Edge?
Philadelphia has had their struggles committing to the run game this season and the three yards and a cloud of dust may be difficult against the Bills. The Eagles are going to have to try and open up holes for the run via the passing game and that could be a challenge for them. Buffalo has been tough against the run and the Eagles lack the big play component that you'd like to have on the ground. Philadelphia hasn't faced this tough of a defense all season and it wouldn't be a surprise if they abandon the run game all together.
Advantage: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Running Offense
Philadelphia Eagles Running Defense
Buffalo Bills Running Offense
Buffalo has found a way to recommit to the ground game and it has served them well this season. The Bills have gone over the 100-yard mark as a team and averaged at least four yards per carry in each of their six games this season. In four of those games, Buffalo has run for at least 125 yards four times and they have averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry in four of their six games this season. Last week against Miami, the Bills ran the ball 23 times for 117 yards with a good chunk of them coming in the second half.
Frank Gore leads the Bills in rushing as he has run the ball 86 times for 388 yards and two scores on the season. Josh Allen contributes 45 carries for 190 yards and three touchdowns while Devin Singletary (17 carries, 153 yards, TD) and T.J. Yeldon (10 carries, 45 yards) provide solid production when called upon. The Bills have six run plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season: Gore and Singletary each have three on the year. Buffalo has moved the sticks 43 times via the ground this season.
Philadelphia Eagles Run Defense
The Eagles had been effective at containing the ground game of the opposition in the early portion of this season. Philadelphia has had problems against good running teams in the last couple weeks, so this will be a challenge against the Bills. In week 1 against Washington, the Eagles held the Redskins to 13 carries for 28 yards. Philadelphia then limited the Falcons to 17 carries for 57 yards, the Lions to 28 carries for 86 yards and the Packers to 20 carries for 77 yards. In week five against the hapless Jets, the Eagles allowed 19 carries for 67 yards. The last two weeks has seen Philadelphia struggle: they allowed 35 carries for 122 yards against Minnesota in week 6 and 36 carries for a season-high 189 yards to Dallas last week.
Rodney McLeod leads the team with 41 tackles (21 solo) on the season. Rasul Douglas (27 tackles), Nigel Bradham (26 tackles), Andrew Sendejo (25 tackles) and Malcolm Jenkins (31 tackles, two forced fumbles) are among the team leaders in tackles. Brandon Graham (23 tackles, fumble recovery) leads the team with seven tackles for loss on the year. Derek Barnett (17 tackles, forced fumble) and Fletcher Cox (17 tackles) each have five this season. As a team, the Eagles have racked up 46 tackles for loss, six forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries: they have one defensive touchdown via fumble return this season.
- 10th in run play percentage (43.04 percent)
- 9th in rushing attempts per game (27.8)
- 7th in rushing yards per game (135.8)
- 9th in yards per carry (4.9)
- Tied for 13th in rushing TD (six)
- Tied for 15th in longest rush (41 yards)
- 11th in percentage of run plays against (38.27 percent)
- 12th in run plays per game against (24)
- 6th in rushing yards allowed per game (89.4)
- 7th in opposing yards per carry (3.7)
- Tied for 17th in rushing TD allowed (seven)
- 16th in longest rush allowed (44 yards)
Who has the Edge?
The Eagles were pretty tough against the run in the first five games of the season but they have struggled in the last couple of weeks. Philadelphia was chopped up for 311 yards in the last two games on the ground by the Vikings and Cowboys. Buffalo has been very good with the ground game this season and the return of Singletary last week helps Gore as it keeps a fresh rotation. The Eagles can make the run game a struggle but seeing how vulnerable they've been the last couple weeks makes you think they're susceptible in this contest.
Advantage: Buffalo Bills
The Passing Game
Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense
vs. Buffalo Bills Passing Defense
Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense
Philadelphia had a big passing game in the opener but things have been an issue after that as injuries to the receiving corps have taken their toll. The Eagles went for 313 yards against Washington in the opener but have trended downward since. Philadelphia threw for 255 yards against the Falcons in week 2, 259 yards against Detroit in week three and a season-low 160 yards against Green Bay in week four. The Eagles did improve in week five against the Jets but still threw for only 189 yards, though they didn’t need that much to get the victory. Philadelphia went over 300 yards in week six against Minnesota (306) before dropping back down to 191 yards in week seven against Dallas.
Carson Wentz has completed 147 of 240 passes for 1,152 yards with 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 13 times this season for a loss of 76 yards. Josh McCown is three of five for 24 yards this year while kicker Jake Elliott was picked off on his lone pass attempt. Tight end Zach Ertz leads the team with 35 receptions for 404 yards and a score on the year. Nelson Agholor (25 receptions, 254 yards, three touchdowns), Alshon Jeffery (26 receptions, 253 yards, three TD) and Mack Hollins (10 grabs, 125 yards) all have to produce as DeSean Jackson (eight catches, 151 yards, two TD) is still out with an abdominal strain: he is expected to return in the next couple weeks. The Eagles have 14 pass plays cover at least 20 yards: Ertz has six while Sanders (16 catches, 230 yards) has five and Agholor chips in four.
Buffalo Bills Passing Defense
Buffalo has been stout against the pass this season as they have been good at forcing opposing quarterbacks to make throws that were off the mark. The Bills have yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season: in fact, last week was the first time all season that they had allowed an opposing team to crack the 250-yard mark in a contest. Buffalo has held all six opponents to a QB rating below 87 this season and they’ve been good at making plays when it matters, either via the pass rush or by generating a takeaway.
Phillips leads the Bills with five sacks this season while Alexander has two and Jerry Hughes (13 tackles, three tackles for loss, fumble recovery) has 1.5 on the season. Alexander and Edmunds each have five pass defenses to share the team lead this season while Wallace is right behind them with four of his own. Tre’Davious White (26 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles) has three interceptions to lead the team. Micah Hyde (21 tackles, tackle for loss, two pass defenses, forced fumble), Poyer and Trent Murphy (eight tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, three pass defenses, fumble recovery) each have one pick. As a team, the Bills have 14 sacks, 36 pass defenses and six interceptions this season.
- 21st in pass play percentage (57.17 percent)
- 27th in completion percentage (61)
- 20th in passing yards per game (228.1)
- Tied for 5th in TD passes (13)
- Tied for 14th in INT thrown (five)
- 21st in net yards per pass attempt (6.5)
- 24th in longest pass play (53 yards)
- 19th in passer rating (90.4)
- 24th in pass play percentage against (62.26 percent)
- 4th in passing yards per game allowed (201.3)
- 4th in completion percentage allowed (58.7)
- 2nd in TD passes allowed (four)
- Tied for 9th in INT (six)
- Tied for 21st in sacks (14)
- 3rd in passer rating allowed (70.3)
- 3rd in net yards per pass attempt (5.5)
Who has the Edge?
The vertical component of the passing game has been lacking for the Eagles since Jackson went down in week 2 against the Falcons. Their two biggest pass plays of the season came in week 1 when Wentz hit Jackson on touchdown passes of 53 and 51 yards against the Redskins. Injuries have taken a toll on the receiving corps at different points this season but the dink and dunk strategy isn't going to set the world on fire, much less stretch the field. Buffalo has been tough against the pass and has allowed just four touchdown passes this season. The key for this one will be whether Matt Milano returns from a hamstring injury for the Bills: he'd likely be matched up with Ertz. As it stands, unless the Eagles hit some big plays, it's hard to see them doing a ton here that gives them positive momentum.
Advantage: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Passing Offense
Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense
Buffalo Bills Passing Offense
Thanks to their ability to move the ball effectively on the ground, the Bills haven’t had to rely a ton on the passing game. Buffalo hasn’t hit the 300-yard mark through the air this season but they have gone over 200 yards in each of their six games. Their low water mark on the year came last week against the Dolphins last week when they totaled 202 yards. Buffalo has fallen somewhere between that mark and the 280 yards they had in their lone loss of the season, which came to New England in week four.
Josh Allen is 118 of 189 passing for 1,324 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season. He has been sacked 15 times for 90 yards in losses. Matt Barkley is nine of 16 for 127 yards with an interception: he has been sacked once for a loss of nine yards. John Brown leads the team with 33 receptions for 473 yards and two touchdowns this season. Cole Beasley (30 receptions, 283 yards, TD), Dawson Knox (12 catches, 178 yards, TD) and Yeldon (10 grabs, 100 yards) are the only other players with double-digit receptions so far. Duke Williams (five catches, 52 yards, TD) caught the winning touchdown against the Titans in week five and could be looked at more going forward. The Bills have 21 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season: Brown leads the team with eight while Knox is next with three.
Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense
Philadelphia, even with as solid as they’ve been against the run this season, have had issues in defending the pass. While the Eagles shut down the pass game last week, it was against the Jets and their third-string quarterback. Philadelphia has given up four 300-yard passing games this season: the Eagles gave up 380 yards to Washington in week 1, 320 to Atlanta in week 2 and 422 yards to the Packers in week 4. On the flip side, Philadelphia stymied New York, holding them to 120 yards in week 5 while recording 10 sacks. In week six, the Eagles were singed for 333 yards by the Vikings before allowing 239 yards to Dallas in week seven.
Graham leads the team with four sacks on the season. Barnett has three while the now-released Orlando Scandrick (seven tackles, two tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, fumble recovery, TD) and Hassan Ridgeway (nine tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss) each have two. Rasul Douglas (16 tackles, two tackles for loss) leads the team with six pass defenses on the year. Ronald Darby (14 tackles) adds five pass defenses while Avonte Maddox (16 tackles, tackle for loss) has four of his own. Nathan Gerry (seven tackles, two pass defenses, TD) leads the team with two interceptions. Sidney Jones (16 tackles, tackle for loss, three pass defenses), Jalen Mills (four tackles, pass defense), Bradham, Sendejo, Darby and McLeod each have one interception on the year. As a team, the Eagles have 17 sacks, 37 pass defenses and eight interceptions with one returned for a touchdown.
- 23rd in pass play percentage (56.96 percent)
- 23rd in completion percentage (62)
- 21st in passing yards per game (225.3)
- Tied for 25th in TD passes (seven)
- Tied for 24th in INT thrown (eight)
- 20th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6)
- 26th in longest pass play (51 yards)
- 27th in passer rating (78.3)
- 22nd in pass play percentage against (61.73 percent)
- 27th in passing yards per game allowed (270.6)
- 19th in completion percentage allowed (65.8)
- Tied for 25th in TD passes allowed (14)
- Tied for 3rd in INT (eight)
- Tied for 16th in sacks (17)
- 21st in passer rating allowed (95.2)
- 24th in net yards per pass attempt (7.5)
Who has the Edge?
The Eagles have been ravaged by injuries to their secondary but they are expected to be as close to healthy as anyone would hope to expect here. Mills returned last week after missing the entire season and a chunk of last year with a foot injury to immediately make an impact. Darby is expected to return this week to face his former team but it remains to be seen if Philadelphia can contain anyone in the passing game. Buffalo hasn't thrown the ball a ton but Allen has had success against soft pass defenses: just ask the Giants. This one could go either way since you never know what to expect in this contest given the fact that the Eagles have struggled all season against the pass and the Bills tend to be a run-first offense.
Philadelphia is 14th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 24.4 points per game on the season. The Eagles are 23rd in the league in total offense with 339.9 yards per game and stand 24th in yards per play with 5.3 yards per snap. Philadelphia struggles a bit defensively, ranking 24th in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 26.6 points per contest. The Eagles are 18th in total defense as they allow 360 yards per game and are 20th as they give up 5.7 yards per play. Philadelphia is tied for 21st in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a -2 on the season.
The Eagles are 10th in red zone success as they have cashed in 63.64 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Philadelphia is 17th in red zone defense as they have limited opposing teams to a 56 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Philadelphia has been stellar in extending drives as they are fifth in the league by converting 48.35 percent of their third down situations. The Eagles are about league average in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 38.37 percent of their third downs, which is currently 15th in the league. Philadelphia is 13th in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 50.89 percent of the time.
Jake Elliott has hit all 17 extra point attempts and eight of eight field goal tries with a long of 53 this season. Cameron Johnston has averaged 47.6 yards per punt on 25 boots with a net of 44.6 yards this season. He has dropped 12 punts inside the opposition’s 20-yard line while not recording a touchback. Sanders averages 23.5 yards per return on 11 kick returns with a long of 67 while Corey Clement has averaged 24.3 yards on three runbacks. Sproles has averaged 9.3 yards on nine punt returns on the year. Malcolm Jenkins blocked a field goal against the Lions back in week 3.
Buffalo is slightly below average, ranking 22nd in the league in scoring offense as they put up 20.2 points per game on the season. The Bills are 17th in the league in total offense with 361.2 yards per game and stand 16th in yards per play with 5.6 yards per snap. Buffalo is rock solid defensively, ranking 3rd in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 15.2 points per contest. The Bills are 3rd in total defense as they allow only 292.7 yards per game and are 3rd as they give up 4.7 yards per play. Buffalo is tied for 19th in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a -1 on the season.
The Bills are 2nd in red zone success as they have cashed in 68.75 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Buffalo is 24th in red zone defense as they have limited opposing teams to a 64.29 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Buffalo has struggled in extending drives as they are 24th in the league by converting 33.33 percent of their third down situations. The Bills are above average in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 34.12 percent of their third downs, which is currently 9th in the league. Buffalo is ninth in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 52.19 percent of the time.
Stephen Hauschka has connected on all 12 extra point tries and seven of nine field goal attempts with a long of 46 this season. Corey Bojorquez has averaged only 42.6 yards per punt on 29 boots: his net average is a dreadful 34.4 yards this season. He has had one punt blocked while dropping 13 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line with five touchbacks. Andre Roberts has averaged 28 yards on four kick returns with a long of 40 and 5.4 yards on 14 punt returns with a long of 13. Micah Hyde ran his lone kickoff back 45 yards for a score and has averaged 5.3 yards on three punt returns with a long of 10 this season. Darryl Johnson (six tackles, sack, 1.5 tackles for loss) blocked a field goal attempt against the Titans in week five.
Who has the Edge?
Philadelphia's scoring defense has been rough and their inability to come up with takeaways is a problem for them. The Eagles are going to have to find ways to get after Allen and force him into making critical mistakes. Philadelphia has been terrific in the kicking game and their ability to flip the field in the punt game has been solid. Buffalo is excellent offensively in the red zone and their numbers are improved over last year. The Bills have to be better on special teams, especially in the punt game as Bojorquez has struggled: his blocked punt against the Patriots in week four led to the difference in the contest. Pederson owns a Super Bowl ring from a couple years ago and while McDermott has been solid with the Bills, it's hard to argue with that kind of hardware.
Advantage: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have been abysmal in the last couple of weeks and it remains to be seen if they can rebound or if they will continue to sink in the standings. We talked previously that this three-game road swing against Minnesota, Dallas, and Buffalo was crucial for Philadelphia: they've dropped the first two games by a combined 75-30. Buffalo doesn't overwhelm you but they find ways to come up with critical plays with the game on the line. Allen leads the league with three fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives already this season. That's something that you can't overlook: the fact that the Bills have made clutch plays when they needed to this year. It's something that the Eagles have summarily failed to pull off in losses to the Falcons and Lions this season. Seeing how Philadelphia has sputtered on the road, it's tough to have a ton of faith in them right now.
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Philadelphia has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements
There are some injuries to watch out for in this contest. Philadelphia is missing six players, four of which are normal starters, that will impact them on both sides of the ball. Starting left tackle Jason Peters (knee) is out, which means rookie first-round pick Andre Dillard will get the call. In addition, receiver DeSean Jackson is out again with his abdominal strain, which puts pressure on Mack Hollins and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to step up. In addition, Darren Sproles is out again, which means Howard and Sanders will see increased workloads.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Eagles will be without starting defensive tackle Tim Jernigan (foot): that means that once again, Albert Huggins, Anthony Rush or Bruce Hector has to step in. Starting middle linebacker Nigel Bradham is out again for the second straight week with an ankle injury, which pushes T.J. Edwards into action again. In addition, corner Avonte Maddox is out, which means Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones will get more work in nickel and dime packages.
Buffalo hasn't ruled anyone out but they do have some question marks at this point. Starting strong-side linebacker Matt Milano is questionable with a hamstring injury and is considered a game-time decision. Backup safety Kurt Coleman (hamstring), backup corner Kevin Johnson (neck) and backup linebacker Corey Thompson (ankle) are all questionable. On offense, only Duke Williams, who has practiced in limited format the last few days, is questionable with a shoulder injury: Robert Foster would likely step in if Williams was unable to go.
The weather could end up being a factor in this one as there is rain and a fair amount of wind hovering in the forecast at New Era Field. The game-time temperature is expected to be in the low-60s for this contest with cloudy skies. Winds are expected to come from the southwest between 20 and 25 miles an hour with gusts up to 37 miles per hour. There is a 40 percent chance of rain around kickoff that drops to around 20 percent as the game wears on. While the rain is expected to blow through, the winds will remain and could wreak havoc with the passing and kicking games.
When the initial lines opened for this contest, this game was a pick 'em with the over/under set at 41.5 points. As of Saturday afternoon, the line has moved upward slightly with the Bills now sitting as a 1.5-point favorite in the contest. The over/under ticked downward slightly to 41 points in this contest. Currently, the moneyline shows Buffalo a slight -120 to -130 favorite while the Eagles can be found as a +100 to +110 underdog depending on the sportsbook. As of this writing, a narrow 51 percent of the bets are backing the Bills -1.5 points. When it comes to the moneyline, a solid majority, 72 percent of the wagers, are backing the Eagles as the visiting team. Meanwhile, 55 percent of bets are projecting this one to go under the total.
Philadelphia is going to have a tough time moving the ball against a stout Buffalo defense that is in the top five of several defensive categories this season. The Eagles are dealing with a slew of injuries right now and they have to try to figure out how to work through all of those. Buffalo plays tough defense and they've been able to come up with the critical plays in the fourth quarter of games: Allen leads the league with three fourth-quarter comebacks and four game-winning drives this season. Look for more late magic as the Bills earn the win.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -2Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com
Additional Insiders' Best Bets
Full-game Total Bet
The Bills have been tough defensively against their opposition this season, as their rankings will point out. Buffalo is third in the league in scoring defense and they allowed more than 17 points for the first time all season last week. With Jackson likely missing for the Eagles again in this one, they are going to be missing the big-play component that they need in order to put teams back on their heels. Buffalo will be content to grind it out and be methodical on their scoring drives, like we saw on their 12 play, 98-yard drive that gave them the lead for good last week. Given the way the Bills have been tough this season, can the Eagles find a way to dent that defense?
The under is 4-1 in the Eagles' last 5 games in October, 4-1 in their last five in week 8, 5-2 in their last seven on the road and 5-2 in their last seven after allowing at least 150 yards on the ground. Buffalo has seen the under go 6-1 in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 6-1 in their last seven after a straight up win, 5-1 in their last six overall and 5-1 in their last six in October. The under is 4-1 in their last five meetings: seeing how the Bills have played stout defense, this one ends up short of the number.
Half-time Side Bet
The Eagles have actually trailed 75 percent of the time this season, which is cause for concern about their chances. Philadelphia has been down at the half in five of their seven games this season and one of the two games where they held the lead at intermission was a one-point edge over Green Bay. That doesn't bode well against a Buffalo team that has held the lead in three of their six games: the biggest deficit the Bills have faced at the half was 10 against New England in week four. Buffalo has held double-digit leads at the break twice this season. Their defense can make life tough for Wentz and the fact that the Eagles start slow should give the Bills the edge here.
Half-time Total Bet
Philadelphia has been involved in some high-scoring affairs this season. The Eagles have been outscored 126-82 in the opening half this season with 51 of those points given up in the last two games. Buffalo has scored just 54 first half points this season but they've been even stingier, allowing just 40 points in the opening 30 minutes. This one could go either way given the way that the Eagles have been blown up on the defensive side of the ball in the opening half. The smart mentality is to think that this one ends up under the total given the fact that Buffalo's defense is so tough to crack.