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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs,
10-30-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#273 Denver
Broncos
#274 Kansas City
Chiefs

Monday, October 30, 2017 at 8:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Denver Broncos (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS, 3-3 O/U) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U)

When and Where: Monday, Oct. 30, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo., 8:30pmET

Line: Kansas City -7

Total: 43

Kansas City and Denver face off in their first meeting this season as AFC West rivals. The Chiefs have lost two straight, including falling in the last seconds in Oakland, 31-30 on Oct. 19. Denver has lost two straight, getting shut out by the LA Chargers this past Sunday, 21-0. They’ll meet up on Monday night from Arrowhead Stadium.

Injuries, QB play hurting the Broncos

Denver is dealing with several injuries on the offensive line and at wide receiver. Emmanuel Sanders missed their last game against the Chargers due to an ankle sprain and is questionable for the MNF game.  Sanders has 25 catches for 266  yards and two TDs. Against the Chargers, quarterback Trevor Siemian completed 25 of 35 for 207 yards with a pick. He wasn’t really able to get the ball downfield and due to injuries up front, including tackle Menelik Watson, the Broncos were unable to run the ball (69 yards on 19 carries). Defensively, they played well enough to win, holding the Chargers to 162 yards passing and 80 yards rushing. But the special teams struggled, allowing Travis Benjamin to score on a 65-yard punt return for the first Chargers touchdown in the first quarter. That’s all Los Angeles needed to win the game as the Broncos had a pick, lost two fumbles and committed 10 penalties for 68 yards.

With Paxton Lynch out due to a shoulder injury, Denver has very little choice but to start Siemian. They could turn to Brock Osweiler but with their offensive line issues, they need a more mobile quarterback. Siemian has completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,471 yards with eight TDs and seven picks (82.5 QB rating). The Broncos are allowing just 258.5 yards per game and 71.8 on the ground.

Chiefs lose a tough one

Kansas City had won their first five games before dropping their last two. Both games were winnable but while the offense struggled against Pittsburgh (19-13 loss), the defense lost their way against Oakland last Thursday night. After several defensive holding penalties in the end zone, Derek Carr completed a 2-yard pass to Michael Crabtree with no time left and Giorgio Tavecchio nailed the extra point to give the Raiders the 31-30 win. The Chiefs pass defense was obliterated by Carr, allowing 417 yards in the air and 88 on the ground. Offensively, Alex Smith played well, completing 25 of 36 for 342 yards with three touchdowns. Amazingly, Smith has 15 touchdowns and no interceptions on the season with a 120.5 quarterback rating. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt added 87 yards rushing and now has 1,002 yards on the season with six TDs.

The Chiefs rank third in the NFL in yards per game (392.4ypg), fifth in passing yards (263.4ypg) and fifth in rushing yards (129ypg). However, they are struggling on the defensive end, giving up 396.3 yards per game (29th), 271.1 yards passing (28th) and 124.6 rushing yards per game (25th).

NFL Trends:

Denver is:

  • 5-0 ATS last 5 in Week 8.
  • 17-8 ATS last 25 after a SU loss.

Kansas City is:

  • 1-6 ATS last 7 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Here is the concern. Kansas City has not looked like the same team in their last two games and Denver should get a few more players back including Sanders with an extra day rest. The Broncos stop the run so that forces Smith to throw and Von Miller will be in his face as much as Khalil Mack was last Thursday. It would also be nice to get the hook.

Pick: Denver

Kansas City has defensive issues but Denver has offensive issues. Denver is 7-1 Under last 8 in October and 8-1 Under last 9 after an ATS loss. Kansas City is 40-18 Under last 58 home games.

Under

3

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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