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San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts,
10-8-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#461 San Francisco
49ers
#462 Indianapolis
Colts

Sunday, October 8, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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San Francisco 49ers (0-4 SU, 3-1-0 PS, 1-3-0 O/U) vs Indianapolis Colts (1-3 SU, 2-2-0 PS, 3-1-0 O/U)

When: 1:00 PM EDT, Sunday, October 8, 2017

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

Lines: Indianapolis -1.5

Total: 43

A little inter-conference NFL action this afternoon as the San Francisco 49ers grapple with the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Niners are off a very tough 18-15 OT loss to Arizona on the road, while the Colts check in off a rough 46-18 loss to the Seahawks on the road. These teams last met in 2013 and the Colts won that game on the road by a score of 27-7.  

Niners Take A Very Tough Loss In the Desert

The San Francisco 49ers have had a few rough years in a row and while they are not year playoff material, they are an improved team that will compete hard on the field and pull some upsets just when you least expect it. The Arizona Cardinals almost found that out the hard way. The Niners really played them tough and went into OT with the game tied at 12. The Niners held the ball for 7:36 of the OT and got an FG to take a 15-12 lead, but the Cardinals then got their turn with the ball and scored a TD with just 32 seconds left in OT to win the game. It was a very tough loss for the Niners, but it also showed that they are on the right track, especially defensively. They did allow 317 yards passing in the game, but on just 33 of 51 passing and they did pick off a pass. Their defense also limited the Cardinals to just 51 yards on the ground. This was the worst defense in the league last year and now they are middle of the pack. The offense still has plenty of work to do and they had just 305 yards in the loss to the Cardinals. Brian Hoyer struggled in the game as he hit just 24 of 49 passes for 234 yards and an INT. This year they have improved on the defense and next year they will need to start working on that offense.    

The Niners have been poor on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 25th in the league in total offense (297.8 ypg), 25th in passing (193.2 ypg), 18th in rushing (104.5 ypg) and 26th in scoring at 16.5 ppg. On defense, they have been rather average so far as they come in ranked 19th in total yards allowed (346.2 ypg), 22nd against the pass (240.2 ypg) and 15th vs the run (106.0 ypg), while allowing 23.5 ppg, which is 24th in the league.

The Colts Get Blasted In The Great Northwest

The Indianapolis Colts have had a rough start to their year as they have been without Andrew Luck so far and their only win has come by three points at home over the lowly Browns. This past week, they took on the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night football and actually led the game 15-10 at the half, but the 2nd half was a different story as the Seattle offense exploded for 36 points after the break to walk away with a 46-18 win. This team could be in for a long season, especially if they don’t get Luck back anytime soon, but even if they do get Luck back soon, they have to be concerned with their defense, which is among the worst in the league. The Seahawks have had a ton of issues on offense in the early going, but they were able to roll up 477 yards on this Colts’ defense. That breaks down to 194 yards on the ground and 283 through the air, so they struggled in all phases of their defense in this one. They will not be taking on a great offense in this one, so maybe their defense will look a bit better. On offense, they could muster just 237 yards of offense overall, including just 139 through the air. Jacoby Brissett hit just 16 of 29 passes for 157 yards with a TD and an INT. He is not a QB that can lead them to the postseason. This is a team with many issues right now and they hope to get some of them straightened out this week against what has been an improved San Francisco squad.   

Indianapolis enters this contest ranked 31st in the league in total offense (265.8 ypg), 29th in passing (180.5 ypg), 25th in rushing (85.2 ypg) and 25th in scoring at 17.8 ppg. On defense, they have been very poor so far as they come in ranked 31st in total yards allowed (296.2 ypg), 29th against the pass (283.5 ypg) and 22nd vs the run (112.8 ypg), while allowing 34.0 ppg, which is 32nd in the league.

Trends

San Francisco is:

  • 6-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
  • 0-5 ATS in their last five games in October

Indianapolis is:

  • 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in Week Five
  • 26-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record

The Colts are a mess right now, while the Niners have really played hard and look far improved over last year. Still, the Colts’ only win has come at home against Cleveland and I feel they can duplicate that feat in this one, especially with the Niners coming off a draining OT loss in the desert last week. Jacoby Brissett will not lead this team to the postseason, but he has shown signs of promise, especially in their home win over the Browns when he threw for 259 yards and a TD with no INTs. The week before, the Colts took the Cardinals to OT on this field before losing so they have played well here at home so far, compared to getting blown out in their two road losses. The defense has played far better at home and will be taking on a Niners offense that may be just as bad as last years was. Look for the Colts to win a by an FG in this one.

Pick: Indianapolis -1.5

Something has to give here as one of the worst offenses in the league will take on one of the worst defenses in the league. The Niners had struggles on offense last year and it has carried over to this year and while the Colts have been torched on the road, they have played much better defense at home. The Niners had the worst defense in the league last year, but they are much-improved on that side of the ball this year and the Colts have had their issues scoring without Andrew luck on the field. The Under is 4-1 in San Fran’s last five vs. a team with a losing record, while the Under is 6-1 in the Colts’ last seven home games. Take the Under in this one.   

Pick: Under 43

Confidence: 2

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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