In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Bills vs. Browns Prediction
FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
Table of Contents
- Introduction & Team Review
- The Running Game
- The Passing Game
- Final Outlook & Prediction
- Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com
- Latest Updates, Injury Reports, & Line Movements
- Insiders' Best Bets
Last Updated: Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:11am EST
It’s a battle of AFC teams from the northeast on the shores of Lake Erie. The Buffalo Bills are on the road as they travel to face the Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon. Buffalo comes in off a 24-9 home victory over Washington in their previous contest last Sunday. Cleveland came up a 24-19 loser on the road to Denver in their previous contest last Sunday. The Browns lead the all-time regular season series 11-9 but Buffalo has taken the last two and four of the five previous matchups. In the most recent matchup, the Bills rolled to a 33-13 home victory on December 18, 2016.
Buffalo Bills Review
Buffalo has been off to a strong start this season as they have found ways to win close games this season. The Bills are 5-1 on the year and are the lone one-loss team in the AFC: the problem is, they stand behind the Patriots in the AFC East. Buffalo opened the year with a come from behind 17-16 win over the Jets on the road and then dumped the Giants 28-13 in the same stadium in week 2. The Bills rallied for a 21-17 home win over Cincinnati in week 3 before falling 16-10 to New England at home for their lone loss in week 4. Buffalo earned a hard-fought 14-7 road win over Tennessee to head into the bye with momentum. Coming out of the bye, the Bills had a home date with winless Miami, prevailing 31-21 before getting drubbed 31-13 at home by the Eagles. That set up their contest with the Redskins last week to close their three-game homestand.
The Bills were strong offensively as they scored on their opening three drives to jump to a 17-3 lead. Buffalo’s defense stiffened in the second half after getting gouged for 101 yards by Adrian Peterson in the first half of the game: they held him to just seven second-half yards. The Bills kept the Redskins out of the end zone, picked up four sacks and came up with the clutch plays in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. Buffalo owned a 266-243 edge in total offense, won the first down battle 18-12 and won the time of possession by a 31:47 to 28:13 margin in the contest. Neither team turned the ball over in the game.
Cleveland Browns Review
Cleveland had a ton of expectations after last season’s improvement and the offseason acquisition of Odell Beckham Jr. from the Giants to add another playmaker. Instead, things haven’t gone according to plan as the Browns are just 2-6 at the midway point of the season, four games behind the Ravens in the AFC North. Cleveland opened the season with a thud as they were clobbered 43-13 at home by Tennessee before bouncing back with a 23-3 demolition of the Jets on the road. The Browns lost 20-13 at home to the Rams before taking down Baltimore 40-25 on the road to even their mark at 2-2. Entering this contest, that’s their most recent win: they were drubbed 31-3 by San Francisco on Monday Night Football on the road, blew a double-digit lead to lose 32-28 to Seattle at home and then hit the bye. Coming out of the bye, the Browns turned the ball over on three straight plays en route to a 27-13 road loss to the Patriots, setting them up for their game against the Broncos.
Facing a Denver team that had placed quarterback Joe Flacco on injured reserve and was giving Brandon Allen his first career start seemed like it would be a favorable matchup for the Browns. Instead, flashbacks to the mid-1980s seemed to haunt the Browns as the Broncos found a way to stymie their offense. Cleveland settled for four field goals in the first half, three of them coming after drives bogged down in the red zone: they didn’t reach the end zone until the fourth quarter. The Browns turned the ball over on downs at the Denver 28 with 3:19 to play and didn’t get the ball back. Cleveland owned a 351-302 edge in total offense, won the first down battle 21-13 and controlled the clock by a 35:30 to 24:30 margin yet still lost. For good measure, the Browns forced the game’s lone turnover but they gave up big plays: Denver’s three touchdowns came on plays of 21, 75 and 30 yards.
The Running Game
Buffalo Bills Running Offense
Cleveland Browns Running Defense
Buffalo Bills Running Offense
Buffalo has found a way to recommit to the ground game and it has served them well this season. The Bills have gone over the 100-yard mark as a team seven times and averaged at least four yards per carry in seven of their games this season. In four of those games, Buffalo has run for at least 125 yards and they have averaged at least 4.9 yards per carry in five of their eight games this season. The Bills have run for at least 100 yards in three of their last four games and the game where they missed saw them run for 98 yards against the Eagles.
Frank Gore leads the Bills in rushing as he has run the ball 106 times for 437 yards and two scores on the season. Josh Allen contributes 61 carries for 247 yards and four touchdowns while Devin Singletary (40 carries, 267 yards, two TD) and T.J. Yeldon (10 carries, 45 yards) provide solid production when called upon. The Bills have six run plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season: Gore and Singletary each have three on the year. Buffalo has moved the sticks 58 times via the ground this season.
Cleveland Browns Run Defense
Cleveland has had all kinds of struggles stopping the run game of the opposition this season. The Browns have given up at least 100 yards in five of their eight games this season: they allowed at least 90 in two others and their best game saw the opposition run for 79 yards: that was the Patriots in week eight. Cleveland had allowed at least 170 yards on the ground in weeks four through six before the Patriots game. Last week, the Browns gave up 20 carries for 127 yards and a score against the Broncos.
Joe Schobert leads the team with 77 tackles (55 solo) along with two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. Jermaine Whitehead (41 tackles, forced fumble) was number two in tackles on the team but was released by the Browns after the loss to Denver after he made threats on Twitter. Mack Wilson (36 tackles), Sheldon Richardson (32 tackles) and T.J. Carrie (28 tackles, fumble recovery) round out the top five. Myles Garrett (27 tackles, two forced fumbles) leads the team with 13 tackles for loss while Olivier Vernon (23 tackles, forced fumble) and Larry Ogunjobi (25 tackles) both have five. As a team, the Browns have recorded 52 tackles for loss, forced six fumbles and recovered five this season.
- 9th in run play percentage (44.58 percent)
- 10th in rushing attempts per game (28.2)
- 11th in rushing yards per game (129.4)
- 11th in yards per carry (4.6)
- Tied for 13th in rushing TD (eight)
- 20th in longest rush (41 yards)
- 26th in percentage of run plays against (46 percent)
- 26th in run plays per game against (28.8)
- 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (141.2)
- 29th in opposing yards per carry (4.9)
- Tied for 10th in rushing TD allowed (six)
- 29th in longest rush allowed (83 yards)
Who has the Edge?
Cleveland has been gashed by the run all season long. The Browns have been pounded by opposing teams, giving up a ton of yards as they rank in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry allowed this season. While Cleveland isn't giving up a ton of rushing scores, they will have their hands full with a Buffalo run game that has picked up no fewer than 98 yards in a game on the ground this season. Singletary, Gore and Allen will all test the Cleveland defense and that gives them the edge.
Advantage: Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns Running Offense
Buffalo Bills Running Defense
Cleveland Browns Running Offense
Cleveland has been pretty effective when they use the ground game this season. The Browns have run for over 100 yards in five of their eight games this season and they have at least 90 yards in two other contests. Cleveland has three games with at least 150 yards on the ground this year, highlighted by a season-high 193 yards in week four against the Ravens. In the last month, the Browns have cracked the century mark three times: it was last week that they fell short of the mark as the team ran the ball 29 times for 90 yards against the Broncos. That 3.1 yard per carry average snapped a four-week run where the team ran for at least 5.7 yards a carry.
Nick Chubb is leading the team with 154 carries for 803 yards and six scores this season. He did fumble on back to back attempts against New England back in week eight. There’s not much production going on behind Chubb: Baker Mayfield (12 carries, 75 yards, TD) and Dontrell Hilliard (13 carries, 49 yards, two TD) are the next in line in that department. Cleveland has five run plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season with Chubb having all of them. The Browns have picked up 39 first downs via the ground this season.
Buffalo Bills Run Defense
Buffalo has been pretty tough against the run this season as they’ve yet to allow more than 130 yards in a game on the ground this season. The Bills have an aggressive front seven that can plug holes and make life tough to find daylight. Five of Buffalo’s six opponents have been limited to 3.8 yards or less per carry on the season. The Bills have given up more than 100 yards five times this season: the Giants ran for 129 yards in week two, the Titans had 102 in week five (3.8 yards per carry) and the Dolphins had 109 in week seven, though they were held to 3.6 yards per carry. In the last couple of weeks, Buffalo has had problems with the run as the Eagles ran 43 times for 218 yards while Washington had 23 carries for 127 yards last week, though most of that came in the opening half.
Tremaine Edmunds leads the Bills with 61 tackles (34 solo) this season from his inside linebacker spot. Jordan Poyer (58 tackles, two forced fumbles, fumble recovery), Matt Milano (51 tackles, fumble recovery), Levi Wallace (39 tackles) and Micah Hyde (37 tackles, forced fumble) each are among the team leaders in stops. Jordan Phillips (16 tackles, forced fumble) leads the team with 10 tackles for loss while Edmunds has 6.5 while Milano has recorded 5.5 tackles for loss on the year. As a team, the Bills have 58 tackles for loss, nine forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries on the year.
- 21st in run play percentage (38.64 percent)
- 22nd in rushing attempts per game (23.4)
- 13th in rushing yards per game (121)
- 2nd in yards per carry (5.2)
- Tied for 11th in rushing TD (nine)
- 2nd in longest rush (88 yards)
- 19th in percentage of run plays against (41.80 percent)
- 14th in run plays per game against (25.5)
- 19th in rushing yards allowed per game (111.6)
- 19th in opposing yards per carry (4.4)
- Tied for 21st in rushing TD allowed (nine)
- Tied for 22nd in longest rush allowed (65 yards)
Who has the Edge?
Cleveland has been effective on the ground this season but the fact remains that the team has to be more committed to him. The Browns are expected to add Kareem Hunt to the mix now that he served his eight-game suspension after a domestic violence incident that led to the Chiefs cutting him loose last season. Buffalo's run defense has been good most of the season though they did take a hit in the last couple weeks. Philadelphia battered the Bills on the ground and Adrian Peterson had a ton of success in the first half of last week's game. In the second half, Buffalo adjusted and the run defense stepped up. As it stands, give the Browns a slight edge in this one.
Advantage: Cleveland Browns
The Passing Game
Buffalo Bills Passing Offense
vs. Cleveland Browns Passing Defense
Buffalo Bills Passing Offense
Thanks to their ability to move the ball effectively on the ground, the Bills haven’t had to rely a ton on the passing game. Buffalo hasn’t hit the 300-yard mark through the air this season but went over 200 yards in each of their first six games. In the last couple of weeks, the weather was less than favorable in Western New York, leading to a more run-oriented offensive approach. As a result, Buffalo threw for 169 yards against the Eagles in week eight and 160 yards last week against the Redskins.
Josh Allen is 148 of 243 passing for 1,653 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season. He has been sacked 21 times for 118 yards in losses. Matt Barkley is nine of 16 for 127 yards with an interception: he has been sacked once for a loss of nine yards. John Brown leads the team with 42 receptions for 603 yards and two touchdowns this season. Cole Beasley (35 receptions, 337 yards, two TD), Dawson Knox (14 catches, 192 yards, TD), Isaiah McKenzie (10 catches, 124 yards, TD) and Singletary (12 grabs, 103 yards, TD) are other solid options to look for in the passing game. Duke Williams (six catches, 58 yards, TD) caught the winning touchdown against the Titans in week five and could be looked at more going forward. The Bills have 27 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season: Brown leads the team with 10 while Knox and Beasley are next with three.
Cleveland Browns Passing Defense
Cleveland has held their own against the pass this season. The Browns have yet to give up a 300-yard passer on the season, but you can look at that in one of two ways. Optimistically, you could say the Browns are doing the job by not getting beat through the air. On the flip side of that, you could easily point out that the opposition is having so much success pounding the ball on the ground that the passing game is a secondary thought process. Cleveland has been effective with their pass rush, recording at least two sacks in each of their games this season. By the same token, they’ve allowed at least two touchdown passes in seven of their eight contests.
Garrett leads the team with 10 sacks on the season. Ogunjobi is next in line with four on the year while Vernon contributes three. Damarious Randall (20 tackles, two sacks, two tackles for loss), Wilson and Denzel Ward (13 tackles, fumble recovery) each have three pass defenses to share the team lead in that category. Devaroe Lawrence (seven tackles, two tackles for loss, pass defense, fumble recovery), Carrie, Juston Burris (seven tackles, pass defense) and Whitehead each have one interception to share the team lead. As a team, the Browns have recorded 25 sacks, 22 pass defenses and four interceptions this season.
Update: (11/9): Cleveland will also be without defensive end Olivier Vernon and defensive back Eric Murray, who are injured. Vernon injured his knee against Denver, which means second-year end Chad Thomas will be start.
- 24th in pass play percentage (55.42 percent)
- 27th in completion percentage (60.6)
- 26th in passing yards per game (206.6)
- 23rd in TD passes (10)
- Tied for 23rd in INT thrown (eight)
- 22nd in net yards per pass attempt (6.4)
- 28th in longest pass play (51 yards)
- 28th in passer rating (81.2)
- 7th in pass play percentage against (54 percent)
- 17th in passing yards per game allowed (225)
- 31st in completion percentage allowed (58.4)
- Tied for 23rd in TD passes allowed (16)
- Tied for 24th in INT (four)
- Tied for 8th in sacks (25)
- 26th in passer rating allowed (103.6)
- 19th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6)
Who has the Edge?
Allen has taken strides forward this season in his second year in the NFL after ups and downs as a rookie. His biggest issue has been when he plays hero ball, extending plays and then making ill-advised throws that end up leading to turnovers. Lately, he's been more restrained and hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games. Cleveland has a great pass rush, led by Garrett, but the fact remains that their secondary has been inconsistent. Injuries have played a role in that but the fact remains that you have to step up and make plays in order to help the offense out. That's been lacking this season. If Allen plays within his limits, the Bills will be in good shape: as it stands, call this one a wash as the passing game is secondary to the ground game for Buffalo.
Cleveland Browns Passing Offense
Buffalo Bills Passing Defense
Cleveland Browns Passing Offense
Cleveland has a dynamic pair of receivers and a former first overall pick running the offense but the passing game hasn’t been as explosive as many would have expected before the season began. The Browns have just two 300-yard passing games on the season and part of that is on the offensive line: they’ve allowed at least one sack in seven of the eight games and at least three sacks in five contests this season. In the last four games, Cleveland has thrown for under 200 yards twice with a high mark of 273 yards in that span, which came against Denver last week.
Baker Mayfield is 159 of 271 passing this season for 1,963 yards with seven touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He has been sacked 23 times, losing 183 yards in the process. Odell Beckham Jr. is one of two for 20 yards while Garrett Gilbert misfired on his lone pass attempt on the year. Beckham Jr. leads the team with 39 catches for 575 yards and a touchdown this season. Jarvis Landry has 36 catches for 555 yards and a touchdown while Chubb (25 grabs, 161 yards) and Hilliard (11 receptions, 88 yards) are the only other players with double-digit receptions. The Browns have 29 pass plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season: Landry has 11 while Beckham has nine.
Buffalo Bills Passing Defense
Buffalo has been stout against the pass this season as they have been good at forcing opposing quarterbacks to make throws that were off the mark. The Bills have yet to allow a 300-yard passer this season: in fact, only one team has been able to crack the 250-yard mark in a contest. Buffalo has held seven of their eight opponents to a QB rating below 87 this season and they’ve been good at making plays when it matters, either via the pass rush or by generating a takeaway. Last week, the Bills held the Redskins to 144 yards through the air, marking the fourth time in their last five games they kept the opposition under 200 yards passing.
Phillips leads the Bills with six sacks this season while Jerry Hughes (18 tackles, five tackles for loss, fumble recovery) has 2.5: Shaq Lawson (14 tackles, five tackles for loss) and Lorenzo Alexander each have two on the season. Alexander leads the team with seven pass defenses this season while Wallace has six: Tre’Davious White (35 tackles, sack, 2.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles) and Edmunds each have five. White has three interceptions to lead the team. Micah Hyde (37 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, two pass defenses, forced fumble), Poyer and Trent Murphy (13 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, three pass defenses, fumble recovery) each have one pick. As a team, the Bills have 20 sacks, 43 pass defenses and six interceptions this season.
- 12th in pass play percentage (61.36 percent)
- 31st in completion percentage (58.4)
- 17th in passing yards per game (225)
- 31st in TD passes (seven)
- Tied for 29th in INT thrown (12)
- 19th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6)
- 2nd in longest pass play (89 yards)
- 30th in passer rating (71.2)
- 14th in pass play percentage against (58.20 percent)
- 3rd in passing yards per game allowed (184.6)
- 5th in completion percentage allowed (60.6)
- 2nd in TD passes allowed (five)
- Tied for 15th in INT (six)
- Tied for 21st in sacks (20)
- 3rd in passer rating allowed (74.8)
- 3rd in net yards per pass attempt (5.6)
Who has the Edge?
Cleveland's passing game has been inconsistent, which has to be maddening considering the fact that the team has Beckham Jr. and Landry as their top two receiving options. The Browns have to get more from Mayfield, who is tied for the most interceptions thrown by a QB this season. Buffalo has been stingy against the pass and has allowed the second-fewest passing TDs this season. The Bills have an excellent secondary and they have been capable of generating a pass rush to make life tough. Look for Mayfield to get rattled and make mistakes: that gives Buffalo the upper hand.
Advantage: Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is slightly below average, ranking 22nd in the league in scoring offense as they put up 19.8 points per game on the season. The Bills are 23rd in the league in total offense with 336 yards per game and stand 19th in yards per play with 5.3 yards per snap. Buffalo is rock solid defensively, ranking 3rd in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 16.4 points per contest. The Bills are 3rd in total defense as they allow only 296.2 yards per game and are 3rd as they give up 4.9 yards per play. Buffalo is tied for 18th in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a -1 on the season.
The Bills are 1st in red zone success as they have cashed in 71.43 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Buffalo is 22nd in red zone defense as they have limited opposing teams to a 60 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Buffalo has struggled in extending drives as they are 23rd in the league by converting 36.36 percent of their third down situations. The Bills are above average in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 35.14 percent of their third downs, which is currently 10th in the league. Buffalo is 12th in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 50.77 percent of the time.
Stephen Hauschka has connected on 16 of 17 extra point tries and eight of 11 field goal attempts with a long of 46 this season. Corey Bojorquez has averaged only 42.4 yards per punt on 38 boots: his net average is a dreadful 35.4 yards this season. He has had one punt blocked while dropping 16 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line with six touchbacks. Andre Roberts has averaged 32.6 yards on seven kick returns with a long of 66 and 5.4 yards on 14 punt returns with a long of 13. Micah Hyde ran his lone kickoff back 45 yards for a score and has averaged 5.3 yards on three punt returns with a long of 10 this season. Darryl Johnson (eight tackles, sack, 1.5 tackles for loss) blocked a field goal attempt against the Titans in week five.
Cleveland is 25th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 19 points per game on the season. The Browns are 19th in the league in total offense with 346 yards per game and stand 16th in yards per play with 5.7 yards per snap. Cleveland struggles a bit defensively, ranking 23rd in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 25.6 points per contest. The Browns are 18th in total defense as they allow 357.5 yards per game and are 20th as they give up 5.7 yards per play. Cleveland is 28th in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a -8 on the season.
The Browns are 25th in red zone success as they have cashed in 46.15 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Cleveland is 19th in red zone defense as they have limited opposing teams to a 57.69 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Cleveland has been miserable in extending drives as they are 29th in the league by converting 30.61 percent of their third down situations. The Browns are excellent in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 33.33 percent of their third downs, which is currently 5th in the league. Cleveland is 19th in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 48.78 percent of the time.
Austin Seibert has his 12 of 14 extra point attempts and 14 of 14 field goal tries with a long of 48 this season. Jamie Gillan has averaged 46.5 yards per punt on 35 boots with a net of 41.9 yards this season: he has had a punt blocked this season. He has dropped 18 punts inside the opposition’s 20-yard line while recording two touchbacks. Hilliard averages 29.2 yards on 10 kick returns with a long of 74 this season. Landry averages 10.6 yards on five punt returns with a long of 18 while Hilliard averages eight yards on five punt returns with a long of 18. Tavierre Thomas blocked a field goal against the 49ers in week five while Ward blocked a Patriots’ field goal in week eight.
Who has the Edge?
Despite their offensive struggles, Buffalo has been more effective on that side of the ball than Cleveland has this season. The Bills have a massive edge in red zone success as they convert their drives inside the 20 into touchdowns, which is something that Cleveland has had problems with this season. Buffalo has a major edge on the defensive side of the ball and they are much better when it comes to the takeaway/giveaway department this season. Both teams have had their troubles extending drives on third downs, so that will bear watching in this contest. The Bills have a slight edge in special teams as Roberts is a Pro Bowl kick returner: he broke a big return last week against Washington. Cleveland has a series of issues that they have to work through quickly and the temperature on Freddie Kitchens' seat is rising.
Advantage: Buffalo Bills
While people point out that Buffalo has faced a fairly soft schedule this season, the fact remains that you have to beat the teams in front of you. That's something that the Bills have done and it's why they are 6-2. Allen has three fourth quarter comebacks this season and four game-winning drives on the books. Buffalo has seen their defense keep them in games and their offense steps up to make plays late in contests. The thing is, Cleveland has missed opportunities this season. They were blown out by Tennessee at home in their opener, lost by seven to the Rams, blew a two-touchdown lead against the Seahawks and missed a chance against Denver last week. The Browns have no one to blame but themselves for missed opportunities. In this one, Cleveland is going to have their hands full against the Buffalo defense. The Bills are motivated and they send a message that they won't be overlooked: take the points and the Bills here.
According to Covers.com, Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last four on the road and 4-1 ATS in their last five in November. Cleveland has gone 5-21-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements
Buffalo, considering this is a week 10 contest, is ridiculously healthy when you get right down to it. The Bills have, amazingly, no one listed on the injury report. Sean McDermott and his staff did make a few shuffles during the week as the team cut defensive tackle Kyle Peko: in his stead, the team signed Corey Liuget to a one-year deal. Buffalo also shuffled Jordan Phillips into the starting lineup in place of rookie first-round selection Ed Oliver alongside Star Lotulelei at defensive tackle.
Cleveland has a handful of injuries to watch out for in this contest. Backup right tackle Kendall Lamm is questionable with a knee injury, as is tight end Ricky Seals-Jones. If Seals-Jones can't go, the Browns would turn to Demetrius Harris or Pharaoh Brown at that spot. Defensively, Olivier Vernon is out for the Browns with a knee injury: Chris Smith or Chad Thomas will slide into his spot. Backup free safety Eric Murray is also out while starting free safety Damarious Randall is questionable with a hamstring injury for this contest.
The weather could be an impact in this game and turn this one into a potential run fest on both sides. Game time temperature is expected to be in the high-40s with less than a 10 percent chance of precipitation in the forecast. Winds are expected to blow from the west-southwest at 15 to 20 miles per hour with gusts up to 25 miles per hour. During the game, the temperature is supposed to creep up slightly to right around 50 degrees with the winds tapering down slightly to a sustained 15 miles an hour.
When the initial lines opened for this contest, the line showed Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 42.5 points. As of Saturday afternoon, the line has shifted slightly as the Browns are now sitting as a three-point favorite in the contest. The over/under has trended down to 40 points in this contest. Currently, the moneyline shows Cleveland as a solid -145 to -155 favorite while the Bills can be found as a +125 to +135 underdog depending on the sportsbook. As of this writing, a solid 69 percent of the bets are backing the Bills +3 points. When it comes to the moneyline, a solid majority, 70 percent of the wagers, are backing the Bills as the visiting team. Meanwhile, it's an even split on the total with 50 percent of bets projecting this one to stay under the total and 50 percent sitting on the over.
We know how stout the Buffalo defense has been, which has been tough for opposing offenses. The Bills had some struggles against the run against Philadelphia and in the first half against Washington before turning things around in the second half. On the flip side, Cleveland is awful against the run and that plays right into Buffalo's wheelhouse. Given the way that the Browns have floundered and the Bills have won tight games, it makes sense that Buffalo makes the plays when the game hangs in the balance to deliver the win.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills +3Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com
Additional Insiders' Best Bets
Full-game Total Bet
One thing that we've seen is that Buffalo will make life miserable for opposing offenses. The Bills have given up more than 17 points only twice in their eight games this season. Buffalo is 3-0 on the road this season, outscoring the opposition 59-37 in those games. The Bills haven't allowed more than 16 points in any of their road games this season. On the flip side, Cleveland is 0-3 at home on the year, having been outscored 95-54 in those games. The Browns have given up at least 32 points in two of their three home games this season: will they be able to slow things down here?
The under is 6-0 in the Bills' last six on grass, 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game and 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Cleveland has seen the under go 5-1 in their last six games in week 10 and 6-2 in their last eight home games against teams with a winning home record. This one ends up under the total as Buffalo's defense leads the way.
Half-time Side Bet
Buffalo has held the lead in four of their eight games this season and they have been extremely good at staying in games. Their biggest halftime deficit was their 13-3 deficit against New England in week 4. Buffalo has held the edge by double figures at the half three times this season, including last week's 17-6 lead over Washington. Cleveland has held the lead in four of their eight games at the half but they've been up just once in the last four games. The Browns have been down at the half in each of their last three contests and that trend continues here. Take the points and the Bills here.
Half-time Total Bet
Buffalo is 22nd in the league in first half points this season as they average 9.8 points per game in the opening half on the year. Cleveland isn't much better in that department, ranking 20th by putting up 10 points per contest. Defensively, Buffalo has been stingy, ranking third in the league by allowing only 7.1 first half points per game this season. Cleveland stands 20th in that department as they give up an average of 12.2 points per game in the opening half. This one ends up being 13-6 or 10-6 at the half, falling short of the number at intermission.