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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Chiefs vs. Titans Prediction

Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 1:00pm EST
Nissan Stadium, Nashville

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Sunday, November 10, 2019 at 3:09am EST

Introduction

A pair of AFC teams take the field in the Volunteer State looking to pick up a victory in week 10 action. The Kansas City Chiefs are on the road as they make the trek to face the Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon. Kansas City comes in off a 26-23 home win over Minnesota last Sunday to get back in the win column. Tennessee was defeated 30-20 on the road by Carolina in an interconference contest last Sunday in their previous game. The Chiefs lead the all-time regular season series by a 27-22 margin but the Titans have taken the last two: that includes a 19-17 road win in the most recent matchup on December 18, 2016. In the most recent meeting all together, Tennessee rallied for a 22-21 win in the AFC Wild Card Game on January 6, 2018.

Kansas City Chiefs Review

Kansas City started the season where they left off last year but hit a speed bump of late. The Chiefs opened the season with four straight victories, rolling over the Jaguars (40-26) and Raiders (28-10) before winning a pair of close games over Baltimore (33-28) at home and Detroit (34-30) on the road. Kansas City has battled through injuries to skill position players but they’ve been held in check for long stretches in the last couple of games. The Chiefs were neutralized by the Colts in a 19-13 home loss in week five before falling to Houston at home in week six. That set the stage for an AFC West tilt with the Broncos in week seven, where the Chiefs prevailed 30-6 despite losing Patrick Mahomes to a dislocated knee. With Matt Moore under center in week eight, Kansas City fell 31-24 at home to Green Bay, setting up their game against Minnesota last week.

The Chiefs were in a back and forth game with the Vikings at home last week but made the plays late to pull out a win. Kansas City was tied at seven after one quarter and at 10 at the half: they led 20-16 after three quarters. In the fourth quarter, trailing by three, the Chiefs drove 38 yards to settle for a season-long 54-yard field goal by Harrison Butker to tie the game with 2:30 to play. Kansas City’s defense came up with a stop and a dud punt gave them the ball at the Minnesota 45 with 1:47 to play. The Chiefs moved the ball 19 yards and won the game on Butker’s 44-yard kick as time expired. Kansas City held a 377-308 edge in total offense and won the time of possession by a 31:48 to 28:12 margin though both teams had 17 first downs. The Chiefs committed the game’s only turnover, which came on special teams, but came out with the victory.

Tennessee Titans Review

Tennessee has been an up and down team all season long and that’s part of the reason they’re hovering around the .500 mark on the season. The Titans opened the season by dismantling Cleveland 43-13 on the road before falling 19-17 at home to Indianapolis and 20-7 on the road to Jacksonville on a Thursday night. Tennessee bounced back by dominating Atlanta 24-10 on the road to get back to .500 but losses at home to Buffalo (14-7) and on the road at Denver (16-0) left them 2-4 on the season. The Titans rebounded with close home victories over the Chargers (23-20) and the Buccaneers (27-23) to get to the .500 mark on the season heading into last week’s contest against the Panthers.

The Titans started slowly against Carolina and it ended up costing them the contest. Tennessee played a scoreless opening quarter but was outscored 17-0 in the second quarter to trail by double-digits at the half. The Titans were unable to get closer than 10 the rest of the way as they failed to contain Christian McCaffrey from running through their defense. Tennessee owned a 431-370 edge in total offense and picked up 24 first downs to Carolina’s 22: they lost the time of possession by a 33:17 to 26:43 margin. For good measure, the Titans turned the ball over three times while forcing only one takeaway in the contest.

The Running Game

Kansas City Chiefs Running Offense
vs. Tennessee Titans Running Defense

Kansas City Chiefs Running Offense

The rushing attack was a secondary option for Kansas City last season and things aren't all that different so far in 2019 either. The Chiefs are intent on trying to do damage through the air and making the run game only relevant when it comes to trying to bleed the clock or to set up something else. Kansas City was relatively effective pounding the ball against the Jaguars in the opener, picking up 26 carries for 113 yards and a score, but things tapered off in week 2. The Chiefs were completely bottled up by the Raiders' run defense as they ran the ball 22 times for only 31 yards in the victory. Kansas City was more effective on the ground against Baltimore as they ran the ball 26 times for 140 yards plus a score. The Chiefs followed that up with 25 carries for 123 yards plus three scores against the Lions in week four but they’ve been held in check the last two weeks. Kansas City struggled against Indianapolis (14 carries, 36 yards) and Houston (11 carries, 53 yards, TD) in weeks five and six. The Chiefs didn’t have a ton of success in week seven as they ran the ball 27 times for 80 yards against Denver or against the Packers (20 carries, 88 yards, TD) in week eight. Last week against the Vikings, the team ran the ball 18 times for 147 yards and a score: it’s important to note that 91 of those yards came on one play.

LeSean McCoy, in his first season with the team after the Bills let him go, leads the team with 72 carries for 371 yards plus two scores on the year. Damien Williams has 60 carries but has totaled only 225 yards plus a score. He's missed a couple of games already this season with a knee injury. Darwin Thompson (four carries, nine yards) and Darrel Williams (22 carries, 87 yards, two TD) are further down the pecking order in the run game. Kansas City has seven-run plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season while picking up 41 first downs via the ground game. McCoy leads the team with four such plays while Mahomes (17 carries, 82 yards), Damien Williams and Darrel Williams have the others.

Tennessee Titans Run Defense

Tennessee has been hurt by the run game this season but they may get a bit of a respite in this contest. The Titans have given up at least 100 yards in six of their nine games this season on the ground with two games where they have allowed at least 150 yards on the ground. Tennessee has given up at least 100 yards in three of their last four games, sandwiched around holding the Chargers to 39 yards. The Titans come into this contest off their second-worst performance of the season against the run as they allowed Carolina to run 33 times for 156 yards and two scores last week.

Rashaan Evans leads the team with 75 tackles (47 solo) from his linebacker spot this season. Logan Ryan (61 tackles, three forced fumbles), Jayon Brown (53 tackles), along with safeties Kenny Vaccaro (48 tackles) and Kevin Byard (47 tackles) help round out the top five in the tackle department. Harold Landry III (44 tackles, forced fumble, two fumble recoveries) leads the team with 10 tackles for loss. Evans puts up 5.5 tackles for loss while Ryan is right behind him with 4.5 tackles for loss on the season. As a team, Tennessee has 51 tackles for loss, six forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries so far this season.

Stats

KC

  • 28th in run play percentage (35.07 percent)
  • 27th in rushing attempts per game (20.9)
  • 24th in rushing yards per game (90.1)
  • 16th in yards per carry (4.3)
  • Tied for 17th in rushing TD (seven)
  • 1st in longest rush (91 yards)

TEN

  • 15th in percentage of run plays against (40.07 percent)
  • 16th in run plays per game against (25.8)
  • 15th in rushing yards allowed per game (103.1)
  • 9th in opposing yards per carry (four)
  • Tied for 6th in rushing TD allowed (five)
  • 25th in longest rush allowed (69 yards)

Who has the Edge?

This one is tough to call as the Chiefs haven't run the ball with any consistency this season. While Kansas City had a season-high in rushing yards last week against the Vikings, 91 of their yards came on one play. The Chiefs have to find a way to be more committed to the ground game, which simply isn't a factor when you have the reigning MVP under center and a terrific group of receivers. Tennessee has had some issues with the run but they have the ability to keep the Chiefs in check if necessary. This one is a wash when you get right down to it.

Advantage: Push

Tennessee Titans Running Offense
vs. Kansas City Chiefs Running Defense

Tennessee Titans Running Offense

Tennessee has been up and down with the ground game this season as they have to be more committed to the run. The Titans have run for more than 100 yards in five of their games this season but they haven’t run for more than 138 yards in a game. Tennessee has two other games where they ran for at least 91 yards. The run game has sputtered in the past month as the team has run for 100 yards just once in their last four games. Tennessee didn’t do much against Denver (21 carries, 39 yards), Los Angeles (29 carries, 97 yards) and Tampa Bay (21 carries, 72 yards) before having a decent showing last week. The Titans ran the ball 21 times for 121 yards and two scores against the Panthers.

Derrick Henry leads the team with 164 carries for 644 yards and six scores on the season. Marcus Mariota is second on the team with 24 carries for 129 yards while Dion Lewis (21 carries, 77 yards) and Ryan Tannehill (16 carries, 46 yards, TD) are next in line. As a team, the Titans have three run plays that have covered at least 20 yards: Henry has two of them while Tannehill has the other one. Tennessee has moved the chains via the run game a total of 34 times on the year.

Kansas City Chiefs Run Defense

The Chiefs have had their problems stopping opposing on the ground this season, much as they did in 2018. Kansas City suffers at stopping opposing teams as their bend but don't break strategy led to some quick strikes by the opposition. The Chiefs have had their struggles so far this season as they've given up more than four yards per carry in seven of their nine contests. Kansas City has allowed more than 100 yards on the ground in six of their nine games this season though two of the three games where they held the opposition under that mark have come in the last three games. The Chiefs limited the Broncos to 71 yards in week seven and they held the Vikings’ run game to 27 carries for 96 yards last week.

Linebacker Damien Wilson (forced fumble) leads the team with 58 tackles on the year. Anthony Hitchens (45 tackles, forced fumble), Charvarius Ward (49 tackles, forced fumble), Derrick Nnadi (36 tackles, forced fumble) and Tyrann Mathieu (40 tackles) are among the team's leaders in tackles. Emmanuel Ogbah (29 tackles, forced fumble) leads the team with seven tackles for loss on the year. Frank Clark (17 tackles, two forced fumbles, fumble recovery) is tied for second on the team with six tackles for loss on the year. while Tanon Kpassagnon (16 tackles, forced fumble) also has six. As a team, the Chiefs have racked up 46 tackles for loss while forcing 10 fumbles and recovering five so far this season. Kansas City has returned two fumbles for scores this season.

Stats

TEN

  • 12th in run play percentage (42.31 percent)
  • 18th in rushing attempts per game (25.7)
  • 18th in rushing yards per game (100.8)
  • 21st in yards per carry (3.9)
  • Tied for 17th in rushing TD (seven)
  • 24th in longest rush (34 yards)

KC

  • 24th in percentage of run plays against (42.81 percent)
  • 27th in run plays per game against (29.1)
  • 29th in rushing yards allowed per game (139.6)
  • 28th in opposing yards per carry (4.8)
  • Tied for 26th in rushing TD allowed (10)
  • 15th in longest rush allowed (51 yards)

Who has the Edge?

Tennessee hasn't given the ball to Henry as much as one would expect, especially given his strong finish to the season last year. The Titans have a good offensive line and that gives them the ability to pound the ball against the Kansas City defense. Tennessee has to establish the run and make life tough for the Chiefs. Kansas City's front seven has been gashed by the run regularly this season. While they have turned in two games where they held the opposition under 100 yards in the last three weeks, it's going to be tough sledding here if Henry gets going.

Advantage: Tennessee Titans

The Passing Game

Kansas City Chiefs Passing Offense
vs. Tennessee Titans Passing Defense

Kansas City Chiefs Passing Offense

One thing that we saw last season was that the Chiefs were aggressive with their aerial assault. The fact that Patrick Mahomes won the league MVP last season by lighting up opposing defenses is something that isn’t overlooked but is hard to stop nonetheless. Even with opposing teams knowing that the passing attack is the key to Kansas City's offense, it's something that has worked again in the first half of this season. The Chiefs threw for 378 yards in the opening game of the season and piled up 443 yards through the air against the Raiders last week. Even with the ground game being more effective against Baltimore, Kansas City racked up another 374 yards through the air in the week 3 win. The Chiefs posted 300-yard performances against the Lions (315 yards) and Colts (321 yards) before falling short in the loss against Houston (273 yards) in week six. In week seven against the Broncos, Kansas City was held to a season-low 193 yards, in large part due to the Mahomes injury. With Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs had some success against the Packers (267 yards) and the Vikings (275 yards) in the last two weeks. Mahomes is expected to be back under center this week.

Mahomes has hit on 157 of 241 passes for 2,180 yards with 15 touchdowns and one interception on the season to date. He's been sacked eight times for a loss of 68 yards. Matt Moore is 59 of 91 for 659 yards and four scores: he has been sacked eight times for a loss of 65 yards. Sammy Watkins is second on the team with 35 receptions for 473 yards plus three scores: he’s been hampered by an ankle injury the last few weeks. Tight end Travis Kelce (team-high 49 grabs, 666 yards, two TD) is his usual self while Damien Williams has 17 grabs out of the backfield for 118 yards and a score. Demarcus Robinson (23 catches, 323 yards, three TD), rookie Mecole Hardman (20 catches, 374 yards, four TD) and Byron Pringle (10 receptions, 147 yards, TD) all stepped up while Tyreek Hill (22 catches, 386 yards, four TD) and Watkins have missed time. The Chiefs have 40 pass plays of at least 20 yards on the season: Kelce has eight to lead the team while Watkins has seven: Hardman and Hill are next in line as each has six.

Update (11/9): It's official. Mahomes will start at quarterback against the Titans according to Ian Rappaport on Friday. Mahomes wound up missing just two games after suffering a dislocated kneecap. They were 1-1 with Matt Moore at the helm at quarterback.

Tennessee Titans Passing Defense

Tennessee has been pretty good against the pass this season. The Titans have allowed more than 300 yards through the air three times in their nine games this season: they have won all three of those contests. In the last month, Tennessee has given up more than 300 yards twice as they allowed 329 yards to the Chargers in week seven and 301 to Tampa Bay in week eight. The Titans were better against the pass last week as they allowed 232 yards against the Panthers, though they ended up with the loss. Tennessee has at least one sack in eight of their nine games and has at least three sacks in six games this season.

Landry III leads the team with six sacks on the season. Ryan contributes 3.5 sacks on the year while Cameron Wake (four tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss) adds 2.5 sacks of his own so far. Ryan leads the team with 12 pass defenses on the season. Malcolm Butler (32 tackles, tackle for loss) has nine pass defenses though he was placed on injured reserve after breaking his wrist against Carolina. Byard has seven pass defenses while Brown adds six. Ryan and Byard each have three interceptions to share the team lead: Butler (TD) has two while Landry III has one this season. As a team, Tennessee has 25 sacks, 46 pass defenses and nine interceptions with one pick-six on the books.

Stats

KC

  • 5th in pass play percentage (64.93 percent)
  • 15th in completion percentage (65.1)
  • 2nd in passing yards per game (300.7)
  • Tied for 2nd in TD passes (19)
  • Tied for 1st in INT thrown (one)
  • 3rd in net yards per pass attempt (8.2)
  • Tied for 4th in longest pass play (83 yards)
  • 3rd in passer rating (109.8)

TEN

  • 18th in pass play percentage against (59.93 percent)
  • 17th in passing yards per game allowed (236.3)
  • 7th in completion percentage allowed (62.1)
  • Tied for 18th in TD passes allowed (14)
  • Tied for 5th in INT (eight)
  • Tied for 8th in sacks (25)
  • 7th in passer rating allowed (86.3)
  • 12th in net yards per pass attempt (6.6)

Who has the Edge?

Kansas City is expected to welcome Mahomes back this week after he missed two-plus games with a dislocated knee he suffered against Denver in week seven. While Moore has been a serviceable quarterback in his absence, the fact remains that Mahomes brings something to the table that Moore lacks. The Titans have been pretty good against the pass this season as they can generate pressure and make plays in the secondary. Tennessee has their work cut out for them dealing with all the pass receiving threats that the Chiefs have: with Mahomes back, he can extend plays and that gives the upper hand to Kansas City.

Advantage: Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee Titans Passing Offense
vs. Kansas City Chiefs Passing Defense

Tennessee Titans Passing Offense

Tennessee has found a more effective passing game of late after an inconsistent start to the season. The Titans had just one 300-yard passing game in their first six games this season but after a quarterback switch during the loss to Denver, things have started to click a bit. Tennessee has gone over the 300-yard mark in two of their last three games. The Titans threw for 323 yards against the Chargers in week seven and followed that up with a season-high 331 yards against the Panthers last week.

Ryan Tannehill is 84 of 117 passing for 980 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions on the year. He has been sacked 13 times for 92 yards in losses on the year. Marcus Mariota is 94 of 159 for 1,179 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions on the season: he’s been sacked 25 times for a loss of 162 yards. Punter Brett Kern completed his lone pass for 11 yards. Adam Humphries leads the team with 32 receptions for 318 yards on the season. Corey Davis (28 catches, 374 yards, two TD), A.J. Brown (26 receptions, 429 yards, three TD), Delanie Walker (21 grabs, 215 yards, two TD) and Lewis (20 catches, 96 yards) are solid secondary options. The Titans have 29 pass plays that have covered at least 20 yards this season: Brown and Jonnu Smith (18 catches, 257 yards, TD) each have six to share the team lead.

Kansas City Chiefs Passing Defense

Kansas City's big thing defensively last season came via their pass rush as the team was pounding opposing quarterbacks into the dirt on a regular basis. The Chiefs haven't had that success as much this season and it's proven to be a bit of an issue. Kansas City made a rookie pressed into action (Gardner Minshew) look like Joe Montana in the opener before falling behind early against Derek Carr and the Raiders. The Chiefs gave up 350 yards and three scores in the opener: they held the Raiders to 198 yards in week 2 of the season. Kansas City helped keep Lamar Jackson in check, holding him to just over a 50 percent completion rate while allowing 249 yards through the air, in week 3. The Chiefs gave up 291 yards to the Lions in week four before holding the run-happy Colts to 151 yards in week five. In week six against Houston, Kansas City gave up 280 yards through the air: they had no sacks in weeks five and six. Against the Broncos in week seven, the Chiefs allowed 213 yards through the air but recorded a season-high nine sacks. Kansas City allowed 305 yards against the Packers before holding the Vikings to 220 yards last week.

The Chiefs have to get a better pass rush going and that's something that has yet to come to fruition after trading Dee Ford and seeing Justin Houston leave via free agency. Ogbah leads the team with 4.5 sacks on the season. Clark, Kpassagnon, Chris Jones (14 tackles, three tackles for loss, pass defense, fumble recovery) and Alex Okafor (18 tackles, three tackles for loss, forced fumble, pass defense) each have three while Hitchens has two. That's a far cry from what we saw last season. Ward leads the team with six pass defenses on the year. Mathieu is second on the team with five pass defenses while Bashaud Breeland (29 tackles, two fumble recoveries, TD) has four of his own this season. Ward leads the team with two interceptions while Juan Thornhill (22 tackles, two pass defenses), Mathieu, Breeland and Clark each have one interception. As a team, the Chiefs have totaled 26 sacks, 33 pass defenses and six interceptions on the year.

Stats

TEN

  • 21st in pass play percentage (57.69 percent)
  • 19th in completion percentage (64.6)
  • 24th in passing yards per game (212.9)
  • Tied for 16th in TD passes (13)
  • Tied for 16th in INT thrown (six)
  • 17th in net yards per pass attempt (6.9)
  • Tied for 7th in longest pass play (75 yards)
  • 14th in passer rating (95.2)

KC

  • 9th in pass play percentage against (57.19 percent)
  • 11th in passing yards per game allowed (229.8)
  • 11th in completion percentage allowed (63)
  • Tied for 18th in TD passes allowed (14)
  • Tied for 15th in INT (six)
  • 7th in sacks (26)
  • 16th in passer rating allowed (90.5)
  • 9th in net yards per pass attempt (6.4)

Who has the Edge?

Kansas City's pass rush has clicked into gear in the last three weeks. After the team recording only 11 sacks in their first six games, the Chiefs have racked up 15 in the last three weeks. That's not good news for the Titans, who have allowed 38 sacks on the season. While Tannehill has mobility, the fact remains that there aren't any targets that you know you can rely on to make the big play when the team needs it. Kansas City has been decent against the pass and with their ability to get pressure of late, they get the advantage here.

Advantage: Kansas City Chiefs

Intangibles

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs continue to be an offensive juggernaut this season as they are sixth in the league with 28 points per contest. Kansas City stands 6th in the league in total offense as they average 390.8 yards per contest while ranking second in yards per play as they pick up 6.6 yards per snap. The Chiefs are currently 18th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 22.7 points per contest. Kansas City is 22nd in the league in total defense by allowing 369.3 yards per game and 14th in yards per play by allowing 5.4 yards per snap. In giveaway/takeaway, the Chiefs are tied for 12th with a +2 ratio this season.

The Chiefs have struggled punching the ball into the end zone once they drive into the red zone as they are ranked 27th in the league by converting only 44.83 percent of their chances. Defensively, Kansas City has been decent so far this season, ranking 16th in red zone defense by allowing 55.26 percent of drives to reach the red zone to end in touchdowns. The Chiefs are near the top of the pack in third-down conversions, ranking 9th by converting 44.55 percent of their third-down situations so far this season. Kansas City’s defense is 14th in those situations as they hold the opposition to 38.46 percent success on their third downs. The Chiefs are 27th in the league in time of possession by holding the ball 46.47 percent of the time this season.

Harrison Butker is 27 of 28 on extra-point tries and has hit 19 of 22 field goals with a long of 54. Dustin Colquitt has averaged 45.7 yards on his 30 punts with a 42.4-yard net average per kick. He does have 13 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line but also has two touchbacks. Hardman has averaged 23.1 yards on his 14 kick returns and has averaged 18.2 yards on five punt returns with a long of 36. De’Anthony Thomas has averaged 22.1 yards on seven kick returns and 4.2 yards on 13 punt returns with a long of 10 this season.

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is 26th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 18.7 points per game on the season. The Titans are 26th in the league in total offense with 313.7 yards per game and stand 24th in yards per play with 5.2 yards per snap. Tennessee is seventh in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 18.3 points per contest. The Titans are 13th in total defense as they allow 339.4 yards per game and stand 11th as they give up 5.3 yards per play. Tennessee is 6th in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a +5 on the season.

The Titans are 2nd in red zone success as they have cashed in 69.57 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Tennessee is just 26th in red zone defense as they hold opposing teams to a 61.54 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. The Titans are a struggling 25th in the league in third down conversions as they have converted 33.04 percent of their situations this season. Tennessee is near the top of the pack in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 33.62 percent of their third downs, which is 6th in the league. On the season, Tennessee is 16th in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 49.71 percent of the time.

Cairo Santos hit all 12 extra point attempts but was four of nine on field goals with a long of 53: he was cut after missing four field goal tries against the Bills. Cody Parkey was five of six on extra points and hit all three field goal attempts with a long of 51. Ryan Succop hit both extra point tries but is zero for three on field goals this year. Punter Brett Kern has boomed the ball, averaging 47.1 yards on his 50 punts with a 42.8-yard net average. He has placed 26 punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line with only two touchbacks. Kalif Raymond has averaged 28.5 yards on his four kick returns this season while Darrius Jennings averages 21 yards on seven kick returns with a long of 26. Humphries averages six yards on eight punt returns with a long of 14 while Adoree’ Jackson averages 8.7 yards on three returns with a long of 17. Dane Cruikshank blocked an extra point against the Panthers in week nine.

Who has the Edge?

Kansas City gets the upper hand in most of the offensive categories this season. On the flip side of the equation, the Titans are the better team on the defensive side of the ball. Putting the ball in the red zone has been an issue for the Chiefs but when you are scoring 28 points a game, you can get by with a less than stellar success rate. Tennessee is tough on third downs and that will be a test for Kansas City's offense. Both teams have positive numbers in the takeaway/giveaway margin this season. Andy Reid is a veteran coach with plenty of experience and his assistants get the most out of things. Throw in the woes that the Titans have in the kicking game and this one goes toward Kansas City.

Advantage: Kansas City Chiefs

Final Outlook

The return of Mahomes is going to be a boost for the Chiefs, if for no other reason than psychological. Moore was decent offensively but he was sacked as many times in two-plus games as Mahomes had been in six-plus contests. Kansas City has a ton of weapons and they can do damage in a hurry with the passing game. The Chiefs are going to have to find a way to slow the run game of Tennessee as the last thing they want is a slog where Henry runs the ball 30 times. Tennessee has to be effective offensively and control the clock in order to keep the Chiefs' defense on the field. That's been the blueprint to success when it comes to beating Kansas City this season. In the end, the Chiefs have too many weapons to be held down for long. Kansas City comes up with the victory here.

According to Covers.com, the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in week 10 and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 on the road. Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

Kansas City gets one big piece back this week on offense but has a couple other question marks to deal with on that side of the ball. Mahomes is back under center to lead the offense after missing two-plus games with his dislocated knee. Eric Fisher remains out at left tackle as he recovers from sports hernia surgery: Cam Erving steps in for him once again. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif, the team's starting right guard, is questionable with an ankle injury. If he can't go, Martinas Rankin likely would step into that spot.

Defensively, the Chiefs have a few injury issues to deal with at this point in time. Defensive end Alex Okafor is out for this one with an ankle injury, which means that Emmanuel Ogbah likely steps up into the starting lineup. On the other side, Frank Clark is questionable with a neck injury: if he doesn't go, Tanon Kpassagnon would start on the other side. In addition, nickel back Kendall Fuller is questionable with a thumb injury. Rashad Fenton and Morris Claiborne would move up on the depth chart if he can't go.

Tennessee will be minus a pair of their pass-catching threats in this one as it stands. Corey Davis is doubtful with a hip injury, which would bump Tajae Sharpe in as part of the team's three-receiver sets. In addition, tight end Delanie Walker is out with an ankle injury. That pushes Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser into a more elevated role. Defensively, the Titans will miss a pair of starters as Jurrell Casey (shoulder) and Jayon Brown (groin) are both out for the contest. That means Austin Johnson likely slides in at defensive tackle while Wesley Woodyard likely steps in for Brown at inside linebacker.

The weather should be great for fans and the offenses in this contest, especially for November in Nashville. Game time temperature is expected to be in the mid-60s with currently no precipitation in the forecast. Winds are expected to blow from the south-southwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Those conditions are expected to hold throughout the contest as the current forecast for rain and potential snow shows that holding off until at least Monday.

When the initial lines opened for this contest, the line had Kansas City as a three-point favorite with the over/under set at 48.5 points. As of Saturday afternoon, the line has shifted somewhat as the Chiefs are now sitting as a six-point favorite in the contest. The over/under has trended up to 49.5 points in this contest. Currently, the moneyline shows Kansas City as a hefty -280 to -300 favorite while the Titans can be found as a +220 to +250 underdog depending on the sportsbook. As of this writing, a hefty 84 percent of the bets are backing the Chiefs +6 points. When it comes to the moneyline, a solid majority, 66 percent of the wagers, are backing the Chiefs as the visiting team. Meanwhile, 68 percent of bets are projecting this one to go over the total.

The Chiefs get a boost with the return of Mahomes. With him running the offense, the Chiefs are that much more dangerous and it's going to be tough sledding for the Titans. Tennessee has to get back to running the ball, which means a healthy dose of Henry. The thing of it is, we saw the Chiefs hold the Vikings at bay last week for the most part on the ground. With Casey and Brown missing from the Titans' front seven, it will be tougher for their secondary to hold up against the pass. Kansas City takes care of business in this one.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -6

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

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Full-game Total Bet

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Kansas City is an effective offense that can leave a defense shaking their heads in the blink of an eye. The Chiefs have put up 33 points a game on the road this season, which is impressive. Kansas City does face a tough defense here in Tennessee though and it may be their toughest road challenge of the season after facing Jacksonville, Oakland, Detroit and Denver. Tennessee has put up only 74 points in their four home games with 50 of those coming in their wins over Los Angeles and Tampa Bay. The question will be two-fold: can the Titans generate a ton of points against a weak Chiefs' defense and will their defense hold up in this contest?

The under is 16-4-1 in the Chiefs' last 21 games in week 10. Tennessee has seen the under go 4-1 in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, 4-1 in their last five against the AFC and 8-3 in their last 11 at home against teams with a winning home record. Look for this one to end up under the number as the Chiefs prevail somewhere in the 27-17 range.

Prediction: Under 49.5

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Tennessee's best chance to hang in is to pound the ball and bleed the clock. There are problems with that strategy though. For starters, the Titans have had problems moving the ball on the ground this season as they don't seem as committed to it as in previous years. Secondly, the Chiefs don't need a ton of time to put points on the board and with Mahomes back, they are that much tougher to defend. Kansas City is the better team and that gives them the advantage at the half.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

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We know that the Chiefs have a quick strike offense that can pile up points in a hurry. The return of Mahomes makes it that much more efficient. Kansas City is leading the league with 17.9 first half points per game this season. Tennessee is just 29th in that category as they put up 7.9 points per game in the opening half this year. The Titans are 13th in first half scoring defense as they allow 10.6 points per game while Kansas City is 18th by giving up 12 points per contest in the first half. This one should be 17-10 or 20-10 at the half, pushing things over the number at the half.

Prediction: Over 24
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.