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Two struggling teams collide when the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills in AFC action Sunday afternoon from MetLife Stadium. The Bills are coming off a rough 41-9 home loss to the Bears, and the Jets came up short in a 13-6 road loss to the Dolphins in their previous action. The Jets recorded a 34-21 home win over the Bills last season.
Bills Losing Streak Extended to Four Games
The Buffalo Bills have dropped four straight games, and they have been on the wrong end of three straight blowouts. They are struggling to generate any offense. Josh Allen practiced on Wednesday and the rookie QB remains questionable for this one. Backup QB Derek Anderson is also questionable, and if both can’t play, it will be Nathan Peterman taking the snaps in this one. The Bills slide was extended to four games in a 41-9 home loss to the Bears last week. Peterman struggled in that one, throwing three interceptions, and he now owns an abysmal 1:7 TD to INT ratio on the season.
Chris Ivory has overtaken LeSean McCoy for the team lead in rushing with 36 rushing yards last week. The Bills are splitting the duties between McCoy and Ivory, and both have been subpar. Ivory has 280 rushing yards, while McCoy is at 267 rushing yards. Kelvin Benjamin added 40 receiving yards against the Bears last week, and he has leapt past Zay Jones for the team lead with 302 receiving yards on the season. The Bills offense is going to struggle the rest of the way with a subpar rushing offense and minimal production at QB.
— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) November 5, 2018
The Bills defense has been a bright spot in certain areas. They rank third in the NFL against the pass. They did not play as bad as the 41-9 score may indicate last week, as the Bears scored two defensive TD’s, and Buffalo limited Chicago to only 190 total yards. Buffalo is averaging an NFL low 10.7 points per game. They are allowing an average of 26.8 points, pegging them 26th in the NFL.
Jets Offense Falters in Another Loss, Darnold Out with Injury
The New York Jets are hungry for a win after falling 13-6 in Miami last week to extend their losing streak to three games. Sam Darnold was awful in the defeat, recording 229 passing yards with a career-high four interceptions. The rookie QB owns a poor 11:14 TD to INT ratio on the year. Darnold will not play in this one with a foot sprain. Josh McCown will get the start in place of Darnold. The 39-year old QB posted an 18:9 TD to INT ratio in 13 games last season.
Jets’ leading rusher Isaiah Crowell added 49 rushing yards last week, and he now has 533 yards on the season. Crowell hasn’t been able to generate significant yards in four straight games, however he is still averaging a solid 5 yards per carry. Robby Anderson has also cooled off recently with just over 100 receiving yards in his last three games, and he is up to 346 receiving yards on the year.
.@QuincyEnunwa provided a spark in his return to the lineup Sunday.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) November 5, 2018
The New York offense has struggled in a big way in three straight games, which included only 10 points against the Bears in week eight. The Jets defense is having a decent season. They were sharp last week, limiting Miami to 168 total yards, and overall defense hasn’t been an issue in a majority of their losses. New York is scoring an average of 22 points per game, ranking them 22nd in the NFL. They are allowing an average of 23.7 points, pegging them 16th in the NFL.
The New York Jets are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
- 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games in November.
The Buffalo Bills are:
- the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the Bills and Jets.
- under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Updated on Nov 10 at 6:20pm EST
Update prepared by our editoral staff
Public Money / Line Movements
The Sharps appear to be on the side of the Bills as 61% of the bets have come in on the Jets, yet they have gone from -8.5 down to -7.5.
Injury / Weather Report
No Weather Issues Expected
Buffalo’s Impact Injury Report:
Starting QB Josh Allen and backup QB Derek Anderson are both out. Matt Barkley will get the start for the Bills.
TE Charles Clay (169 Yards) is also out as is DE Trent Murphy (3 Sacks).
WR Andre Holmes (135 Yards), LB Tremaine Edmunds (62 Tackles) and RB Chris Ivory (280 Yards) are all questionable.
New York’s Impact Injury Report:
Starting QB Sam Darnold is out.
WR Robby Anderson (346 Yards, 3 TDs) and Center Spencer Long (8 Starts) are both doubtful.
NT Steve McLendon (20 Tackles) is questionable
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking the points with the Bills in this one. While the Bills have been squandering several points recently, their defense has excelled against the pass and run. The Bills are limiting opponents to only 212 passing yards per game, good for third in the NFL, and their rush defense ranks 11th, so they should be able to neutralize Josh McCown and the Jets.
Furthermore, the Jets passing offense is only averaging 200 rushing yards per game, and Josh McCown is playing in his first game of the season. The Jets will have trouble solving the Bills secondary. New York’s offense has been awful, scoring 17 or fewer points in three straight games. In addition, the Jets defense has allowed an average of 27 points in their last four games.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills
Full-Game Total Pick
The under is a strong option in this one considering the weak offense on both teams. The Bills have only scored a combined 20 points in their last three games, and the under has hit in six out of their last seven games overall.
Furthermore, the Jets rank 29th in the NFL with an average of only 309.8 total yards per game, and they are up against a Bills defense that is limiting opponents to an average of only 313 total yards per game, good for third in the NFL, so it will be a challenge for the Jets on offense. The under is 6-1 in the Jets’ last seven games against a team with a losing record, and it should convert in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
The under on the Jets team total is worth a look. The Bills defense limited the Bears to only 190 total yards last week, and two weeks ago they held Tom Brady and the Patriots to only one offensive touchdown. Jets QB Josh McCown is playing in his first game of the year, and he is up against a secondary that is holding opponents to only 211 passing yards per game.
Prediction: Jets Team Total: Under 22.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am siding with the Jets on the halftime line. The Bills have generated almost no offense in the first half, averaging only 4.8 points in the first half on the season, ranking them last in the NFL. In addition, the Jets are averaging 12.8 points in the first half on their home field this season.
Prediction: New York Jets -4
Half-Time Total Bet
The under on the halftime total is also a strong option. The Jets are holding opponents to only 7.7 points in the first half in their last three games. In addition, both the Jets and Bills are averaging more points in the second half this season. Both teams are struggling to find the end zone, and this contest should see very little offense from start to finish.
Prediction: Under 18.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
The under on the first quarter total is a strong option. The Bills have not scored a single point in the first quarter in their last three games, and they have held their opponents to an average of only one point in the opening quarter in their last three games.
Prediction: First Quarter Total: Under