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New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 11-11-2018

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#259 New England
Patriots -6.5
#260 Tennessee
Titans 46.5

Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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The Check out our top NFL plays in this week’s “Fab Five.”

Tennessee Titans will aim for their second straight win when they host the New England Patriots in an AFC clash Sunday afternoon from Nissan Stadium. The Patriots registered a solid 31-17 home win over the Packers last week, and the Titans thumped the Cowboys 28-14 on Monday night. The Patriots recorded a 35-14 home win over the Titans in the playoffs last season.

Brady Leads Patriots to Sixth Straight Win

The New England Patriots have rebounded from their 1-2 start by winning six consecutive games. They were sharp in both ends of the field in their 31-17 home win over the Packers on Sunday night. Tom Brady came through with another outstanding performance, amassing 294 passing yards with one TD. The 41-year old QB has registered at least 294 passing yards in four out of his last five games, and he has collected 2494 passing yards with a 17:7 TD to INT ratio this season. Patriots’ leading rusher Sony Michel sat out against the Packers with a knee injury. The rookie RB is expected to play in this one. Michel has collected 422 rushing yards on the year.

Josh Gordon came through with his best game as a member of the Patriots against Green Bay, racking up 130 receiving yards. The 27-year old WR stands third in team receiving with 413 receiving yards. Rob Gronkowski (448 receiving yards) did not play in Sunday’s win, and he is questionable for this one.

The Patriots offense continues to thrive, scoring at least 31 points in six out of their last seven games. The New England defense has been sharp in two straight games. They held a weak Jets offense to six points in week eight, followed by only 17 points to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The Patriots now hold a comfortable two game lead ahead of Miami for first place in the AFC East, and they are now averaging 30 points, good for fourth in the NFL. New England is allowing an average of 22.4 points, pegging them 11th overall.

Titans’ Offense Shows Life in Big Win Over Cowboys

The Tennessee Titans snapped a three game losing streak with a much-needed 28-14 road win over the Cowboys on Monday night. Marcus Mariota was outstanding, registering 240 passing yards with two TD’s. The 25-year old QB is having an inconsistent season, notching only 1270 passing yards with a 5:5 TD to INT ratio in seven games. The Titans continue to split the carries between Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry. Lewis rushed for 62 yards last week, and he leads the way with 339 rushing yards compared to 300 yards from Henry. The Titans only have one receiver with over 300 receiving yards this season as the injury to Delanie Walker has hurt them. Corey Davis has only made 10 catches in his last three games, and he has tallied a team-leading 451 receiving yards.

The Titans offense has been stagnant for most of the season, and their 28 point output against Dallas was their highest total of the season. The Tennessee defense continue to thrive. They limited Dallas to only 297 total yards last week. and they feature the eighth ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Titans have only allowed more than 23 points once this season. Tennessee owns a 2-1 home record this season, and they are averaging 16.8 points, ranking them 30th in the NFL. The Titans are holding opponents to an NFL best 17.6 points per game.

Updated on Nov 11 at 12:30am EST

Update prepared by our editoral staff

Public Money / Line Movements

The Sharps must like the Titans’ defense to be able to slow down the Patriots’ high-powered offense. 84% of the money coming in has been on the Patriots and yet the line has stayed true at -7 all week.

Injury / Weather Report

No Weather Issues Expected

New England’s Impact Injury Report:

RB Sony Michel (422 Yards, 4 TDs), OG Shaq Mason (8 Starts), LB Dont’a Hightower (28 Tackles, 1 INT), Rob Gronkowski (448 Yards, 1 TD) and OT Trent Brown (9 Starts) are all questionable.

Tennessee’s Impact Injury Report:

OT Jack Conklin (5 Starts) is Out.

WR Taywan Taylor (214 Yards, 1 TD) and WR Tajae Sharpe (222 Yards, 1 TD)

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I am taking the Patriots in this one. Tom Brady continues to lead his team to decisive wins. The Patriots just defeated the Packers 31-17, and they have scored at least 31 points in five out of their last six games. The Titans pass defense has been vulnerable recently, as they have allowed an average of 253 passing yards in their last three games. Also, the Patriots are expected to have Sony Michel back, which is a solid boost against a rush defense that ranks in the middle at 16th in the NFL.

Furthermore, the Titans offense has been flat for a majority of the season. Their passing offense ranks 30th in the NFL, so I am not concerned with the Pats’ pass defense, and New England owns a solid rush defense that is holding opponents to 106.8 rushing yards per game. The Titans have scored 19 or fewer points in three out of their last four games, and they are not scoring enough points to keep pace with the Patriots in this matchup.

Prediction: New England Patriots

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The under is a solid option in this matchup. The Titans are only averaging 14.8 points in their last four games, and the Patriots just limited Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 14 points, so they should contain the Titans, plus the under is 5-1 in the Titans’ last six games overall.

In addition, while I expect a productive afternoon from Brady and the Patriots, the Titans are holding opponents to an NFL best 17.6 points per game. The under is 8-3 in the Pats’ last 11 games after collecting more than 350 total yards in their previous game, and it should hit again in this one.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

I am taking the over on the Patriots team total. The Patriots continue to pile on the points regardless of the defense in front of them. New England is averaging a sizzling 35.5 points in their last six games, and keep in mind the Patriots scored 35 points in their win over the Titans in last year’s playoffs. The Pats were able to score 38 points in week seven on the road against a strong Bears defense, and I expect another strong performance in this one.

Prediction: Patriots Team Total: Over 27.5

Half-Time Side Pick
Rating:

I am taking the Titans on the first half line. The Titans first half defense has been sharp, limiting opponents to an average of nine points on the season. In addition, New England is only averaging nine points on the road in the first half this season, compared to 14.2 points on the road in the second half.

Prediction: Tennessee Titans -3.5

Half-Time Total Bet
Rating:

The under on the halftime total is a strong play. As mentioned, New England hasn’t generated a ton of offense on the road in the first half. Also, the Titans rank second last in the NFL with an average of only 6.1 points in the opening half. 

Prediction: Under 23

Half-Time Prop Prediction
Rating:

I am taking the Patriots on the first quarter line. The Titans have started slow from an offensive standpoint this season. They are only averaging 3.6 points in the opening quarter and one point in the first quarter in their last three games. In addition, New England is averaging a solid 5.7 points in the first quarter in their last three games.

Prediction: First Quarter Line: New England

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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