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Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams,
11-12-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#267 Houston
Texans
#268 Los Angeles
Rams

Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 4:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Houston Texans (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 O/U) vs. Los Angeles Rams (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 4:05 p.m. EST

The Line: Los Angeles Rams -11.5. Total: 46.5.

The Los Angeles Rams will be trying to extend their winning streak to four games when they host the Houston Texans at L. A. Memorial Coliseum on Sunday afternoon. Los Angeles is coming off consecutive victories over Jacksonville, Arizona, and the Giants. The Texans have lost two straight against Seattle and Indianapolis.

Help on the way?

Houston is anticipating the return of starting tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz for Week 10. Fiedorowicz, who suffered a concussion during the preseason and another one in the regular-season opener, returned to practice last week and is expected to be activated from injured reserve. The third-round draft pick in 2014 signed a three-year, $21.5 million contract extension this past offseason ($10 million guaranteed). He had four receptions for 46 yards against Jacksonville in Week 1 and is coming off a 2016 campaign in which he had 54 catches for 559 yards and four touchdowns.

“I think there’s a good chance that he would be ready to go for the Rams game,” head coach Bill O’Brien said of Fiedorowicz.

The Texans can use all the help they can get–especially on offense–with quarterback Deshaun Watson out for the season because of a torn ACL. Tom Savage replaced Watson in last week’s 20-14 home loss to the Colts, completing only 19 of his 44 pass attempts for 219 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. Houston lost the total yardage battle 371 to 288.

Quite a turnaround

In 2016, the Rams had by far the worst offense in the NFL. They were last in total offense with 262.7 yards per game (no other team averaged less than 308.1). They were also last in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game (no other team scored less than 19.3). This season Los Angeles is third in total offense (382.1 yards per game), trailing only New England and New Orleans in that department. Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and company are also No. 1 in the league in scoring offense at 32.9 points per contest. Goff is coming of a career-best four-touchdown performance in a 51-17 rout of the Giants and Gurley has scored a league-high 10 touchdowns. Kicker Greg Zuerlein has made 24 of his 25 field-goal attempts and is the NFL’s leading scorer.

“This is my first time being on a team like that, where the offense is doing what they want, literally,” sixth-year cornerback Trumaine Johnson explained. “And it’s not just one game. It’s really nice to see.”

NFL Trends:

The Houston Texans are:

  • 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with winning home records
  • 1-5 ATS in their last six games on grass
  • 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game

The Los Angeles Rams are:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last five overall
  • 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Week 10
  • 8-2 Over in their last 10 overall

Watson ain’t walkin’ through that door, and that is terrible news for Houston. In the last five games of Watson’s season, the Texans scored 33, 57, 34, 33, and 38 points. In two games that Savage has started (also Week 1), they have scored seven and 14 points. With Savage at the helm, it is hard to see how Houston can come close to keeping up with what has suddenly become the most high-powered offense in the NFL. A young L.A. squad has scored 33 points or more on five occasions already this season. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven on the road against opponents with winning home records, 1-5 ATS in their last six on grass, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous outing. Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 6-2 ATS in its last eight in Week 10. Expect those trends to continue.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams -11.5

Goff looked like a bust as a rookie, throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven games. Clearly, however, the sample size was not big enough to cast judgement. Through eight games of his proverbial sophomore campaign, Goff is completing 60.2 percent of his passes and has 13 touchdowns compared to four interceptions. With the offense now two-dimensional, Gurley has beed freed up to become arguably the best running back in the NFL. The over is 5-1 in the Texans’ last six overall, 5-0 in their last five against winning opponents, 27-11 in their last 38 after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous outing, and 5-1 in their last six after allowing more than 350 yards of total offense in their previous outing. It is also 8-2 the Rams’ last 10 overall, 5-2 in their last seven at home, 6-0 in their last six against losing opponents, 7-1 in their last eight on grass, and 9-2 in their last 11 in Week 10. Look for this one to go over the total.

Pick: Over 46.5

4

Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is a freelance sports writer based in Atlanta, Georgia. He has previously worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.

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