Los Angeles Chargers (3-5; 3-4-1 ATS; 3-5 O/U vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3; 5-3 ATS; 4-4 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, November 12, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Jacksonville -4
The Jacksonville Jaguars will target their third straight win when they host the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC battle Sunday afternoon from EverBank Field. The Chargers were off last week and fell 21-13 to the Patriots before the bye, and the Jaguars cruised to a 23-7 home win over the Bengals in their latest contest. The Chargers defeated the Jaguars by a 38-14 score early last season.
Chargers Well Rested After Enjoying Bye Week
The Los Angeles Chargers are chomping at the bit to get back into action after enjoying their bye week. They had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 21-13 road loss to the Patriots in their previous action. Philip Rivers was mediocre at best in that one, throwing for 212 yards with one touchdown against one interception. The 35-year old quarterback is having a decent season, collecting 2028 passing yards with a 13:6 TD to INT ratio. Melvin Gordon was outstanding in the loss, rushing for a season-high 132 yards which included an 87-yard scamper. The 24-year old running back is having a productive season, notching 526 rushing yards with four TD’s. Chargers leading receiver Kennan Allen brought in four catches for 61 yards in the loss. The 25-year old wide receiver has been kept in check the last few weeks, and has recorded a total of 548 receiving yards on the season. The Chargers offense continues to be inconsistent on many nights but do feature a potent passing game.
The Chargers defense was able to keep Tom Brady and the Patriots offense in check in the loss in their latest tilt, allowing only one touchdown. Joey Bosa made another sack and has now collected 8.5 sacks on the season. L.A. is having success defending the pass, but have been awful against the run. They have won three out of their last four games however they are 2.5 games back of the first place Chiefs.
Jaguars Defense Shines in Win Over Bengals
The Jacksonville Jaguars played tremendous defense in their 23-7 home win over the Bengals last week. Blake Bortles was solid, connecting on 24 of 38 passes for 259 yards with one touchdown with no interceptions. The 25-year old quarterback has played well in two straight weeks and has now recorded 1657 passing yards with a 10:5 TD to INT ratio. Leonard Fournette sat out last week for violating team rules, however, he should be back for this contest. Fournette is having a huge rookie season, accumulating 596 rushing yards in six games. The Jaguars were still able to rush for 149 yards last week with Chris Ivory leading the pack with 70 yards. Marquise Lee had a solid afternoon in the victory, making eight grabs for 75 yards. The 25-year old wide receiver has now tallied a team-leading 438 receiving yards on the season. The Jaguars showed they feature great depth in their running game by rushing for big yards in Fournette’s absence last week.
The Jacksonville defense completely shut down the Bengals last week, allowing only 148 total yards and silenced A.J. Green before he was ejected for his fight. The Jacksonville defense now ranks number one in the NFL, and they have been especially effective against the run. The Jaguars have won three out of their last four games and are tied for first with the Titans in the AFC South.
The Los Angeles Chargers are:
- 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
- 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
- 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are:
- 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
- 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC.
- 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
I am taking the Jaguars in this contest. This is a great matchup for the Jaguars as the Chargers own a terrible rush defense, allowing an average of 135 rushing yards per game, so I expect Fournette and the Jaguars number one ranked running game to do big damage. Furthermore, the Chargers rely on their passing game to generate points, however, they will be up against an outstanding Jaguars pass defense that is holding opponents to an average of only 156 passing yards per game. Jacksonville has only allowed a combined seven points in their last two games and they are a great play in this matchup.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars vaunted defense should contain Philip Rivers with their number one ranked pass defense, and the Chargers running game is below average. The Chargers offense has been inconsistent and this will be one of the better defensive units they’ve faced this season, plus the under is 5-0 in their last five games against the AFC. I do expect Jacksonville to have a strong afternoon on the ground led by Fournette, however, the Chargers should contain Bortles in the air, and the under is 4-0 in their last four games after recording more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. Jacksonville’s defense is only allowing an average of 14.6 points per game, and it should play a key role in the under cashing in.