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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Patriots vs. Eagles Prediction

Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 4:25pm EST
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 9:02am EST

Introduction

A little inter-conference NFL action on Sunday afternoon and we will see the AFC East battle it out with the NFC East as the New England Patriots invade Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia to rumble with the Philadelphia Eagles. This is a rematch of the Super Bowl two years ago, in which the Eagles won 41-33.

The New England Patriots had been rolling right along with an 8-0 record, but a trip to Baltimore ended that, The Patriots were outclassed in that game as they fell by a score of 37-20. They just didn't have an answer for Lamar Jackson (who does these days) as he threw for 163 yards and a TD while also rushing for 61 yards and two TDs against them. The Patriots had allowed just 7.6 ppg heading into that contest, so they will be looking for their defense to get back on track. I must note that coming into that game, the pats had faced just one team that currently has a winning record over their previous seven games and that was at Buffalo. It was also the closest game for the Pats over that stretch as they won that game by a score of 16-10.  Can the Pats bounce back from their loss to the Ravens? We shall see.

The Philadelphia Eagles seem to be getting back on track after a rather slow start. The Eagles enter this game off a 22-14 home win over the Chicago Bears to give them their 2nd win in a row. The defense has stepped up of late as they have allowed 27 total points in their last two games, after giving up 75 points in their previous two games. Now let's look closer at that. In the two games, they allowed 75 combined points in it was against the Vikings and Cowboys, who are two of the best offensive teams in the league. In their last two games, they faced the Bills and Bears, which are two lower-tier offensive teams. Can the Philadelphia defense step up against a very good New England offense? I guess you'll have to check back to find out.

New England Patriots Review

The New England Patriots are off a bye week and prior to that, they had lost their first game of the year. It was a bad loss also as they fell to the Ravens by a score of 37-20. The Patriots had been rolling right along but we also note that the schedule they played was not all that tough prior to the game against the Ravens. The only winning team they faced in their first eight games was Buffalo and they won that game on the road but by just six points. The Ravens clearly exposed the Patriots in that game. 

The Patriots were outgained 372-340 in the contest and they also had two turnovers, plus committed seven penalties. It was not a good game at all for New England. The big issue was their run defense, which allowed the Raven to run for 210 yards. They have a chance to get back on track here as the Eagles do not have a good ground game. Brady hit 30 of 46 passes for 285 yards with a TD and an INT in the contest. The Patriots had not allowed more than 14 points in a game, prior to the loss to the Ravens. Now, they have had an extra week to stew over the loss, plus New England will be looking for revenge after losing to the Eagles in the Super Bowl two years ago. Can New England use the power of motivation to carry them past the Eagles? We shall see.  

Philadelphia Eagles Review

The Eagles began the year by losing two of their first three games. They then won their next two games to move to 3-2. Philly followed that by getting crushed in a couple of road games against the Vikings and Cowboys to fall to 3-4. Philly is now back over .500 after winning their last two games to move to 5-4 on the year. They took out Buffalo on the road by a score of 31-13 and then followed that up with a 22-14 home win over Chicago in their last two games. Despite their up-and-down season so far, the Eagles are tied with the Cowboys atop the NFC East standings. 

Philly will now look to keep it rolling and they have had a week off as well, so neither team will have an advantage in this one. The Eagles have allowed just 27 points in their last two games combined, which is a far cry from the 75 points that they allowed in their two previous games. Still, Buffalo and Chicago do not have good offenses while the Vikings and Cowboys have two of the best in the league. The Patriot offense is far closer to the latter than the former. Can the Eagle defense step up against a very solid New England offense? You will have to keep reading to find out. 

The Running Game

New England Patriots Running Offense
vs. Philadelphia Eagles Running Defense

New England Patriots Running Offense

The Patriots have had some decent running games in the past, but that has not been the case this year. New England enters this game ranked 23rd in the league in rushing and it may not get better here as they are facing a very good run defense. In their last game, they were able to put up just 74 yards rushing against the Ravens and New England will need far more balance from their offense if they hope to knock off some of the better teams in the league. The Eagles are not exactly one of the better teams in the league but they are much better than six of the teams that New England has faced this year. 

Leading their attack on the ground this year has been Sony Michel, who has rumbled for 482 yards and six TDs on the year. He had just 18 yards on four carries in the loss to the Ravens. Rex Burkhead is next but he has just 134 yards so far while James White is 3rd with 104 yards. This is not a deep ground attack for the Patriots and that could be a problem for them here. We do note that last week, they had to abandon the run early as tey fell down 17-0 early in the 2nd quarter. Getting off to a good start here would help them have balance on offense.

Philadelphia Eagles Run Defense

The run defense for the Eagles has been one of the best in the league as they come in ranked 4th in yards allowed on the ground thus far. We do note that teams do not run against them as much as they throw against them because their pass defense is not good at all. Still, when tams do run against the Eagles, they are gaining just 3.8 yards per attempt. If the Eagles can stop the run here then it could help their beleaguered pass defense. 

In their win over the Bills, the Eagles allowed just 98 yards rushing and in their win over the bears, they allowed them just 62 yards rushing. They will be facing a New England team that has averaged just 75.7 ypg on the ground in their last three games. The Eagles do have a solid defensive line but can they crack a good New England frot wall? We shall see.   

Stats

New England’s Rushing Stats

  • 9th in rushing attempts per game (28.1)
  • 23rd in rushing yards per game (92.9)
  • 30th in yards per attempt (3.3)
  • 11th in rushing first downs per game (6.3)

Philadelphia’s Run Defense Stats

  • 9th in run plays per game against (22.9)
  • 4th in rushing yards allowed per game (87.3)
  • 5th in opposing yards per attempt (3.8)
  • 8th in rushing first downs per game against (4.9)

Who has the Edge?

I realize that teams don’t run a ton against the Eagles, but still, they have a very solid run defense and will not be facing a good ground attack. The Eagles are 4th in the league against the run and the Patriots are 23rd in rushing. No one on the Patriots has more than 134 yards rushing on the year. The Eagles will have to just stop Sony Michel and that’s it James White or Rex Burkhead will not contribute much here. We also note that the Eagles are 5th in yards per attempt against at 3.8 while the Pats are 30th in yards per rush at 3.3. I give the Eagles a big advantage in this category.   

Advantage: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles Running Offense
vs. New England Patriots Running Defense

Philadelphia Eagles Running Offense

The Eagles have had a solid ground game as they enter this contest ranked 11th in the league in rushing so far. They have rushed for at least 115 yards in each of their last three games, but it will not be that easy to do in this one as the Patriots had been very strong against the run before their game against the Ravens. Philly will need their ground game to play well as it will take the pressure off of Wentz and the passing game, which has been hit with some injuries this year. 

Jordan Howard came over from Chicago in the offseason and he leads the team in rushing with 525 yards while rookie Miles Sanders is 2nd with 336 yards. Those two are solid but there isn’t much depth behind them. Carson Wentz is 3rd on the team with 144 yards. Can the Eagles’ crack the tough run defense of the Patriots? We shall see.

New England Patriots Run Defense

The Patriots allowed 210 yards rushing last week to the Ravens, but still, they have allowed just 99.1 ypg on the ground for the year. This is a tough run defense that had one bad game so far. Still, they will be taking on a solid ground game in this one and one that has averaged 159.7 ypg on the ground over their last three games. The Patriots have not played a lot of great offensive teams this year and certainly not a lot of good ground games, plus they are a team that has had many big leads and teams have had to abandon their ground games early.  

Teams are running just 21 times per game against the pats, which is the 2nd fewest in the league. The one concern is that the Pats are 26th in the league in yards per attempt allowed at 4.7 but that may not matter as much as the Eagles are 19th in yards per attempt at 4.2. The Patriots have a chance to get their run defense back on track here after allowing 150 ypg over their last three games.  

  

Stats

Philadelphia’s Rushing Stats

  • 6th in rushing attempts per game (30.0)
  • 11th in rushing yards per game (127.3)
  • 19th in yards per attempt (4.2)
  • 10th in rushing first downs per game (6.7)

New England’s Run Defense Stats

  • 2nd in run plays per game against (21.0)
  • 11th in rushing yards allowed per game (99.1)
  • 26th in opposing yards per attempt (4.7)
  • 4th in rushing first downs per game against (4.2)

Who has the Edge?

I will call this a push. The Eagles are 11th in the league in rushing and the Patriots are 11th in the league against the Runs. The Pats have struggled against the run of late and the Eagles have been rushing the ball well of late, but the overall makeup of the rushing defense vs the rushing offense is evenly matched. The Eagles have a solid offensive line and the Pats have a strong defensive line that will be angry after allowing 210 yards last week to the Ravens. Call it a draw.  

Advantage: Push

The Passing Game

New England Patriots Passing Offense
vs. Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense

New England Patriots Passing Offense

The Patriots may have had their issues running the ball this year, but they do not have issues when it comes to tossing the pigskin all over the yard. New England enters this game at 7th in the league in passing but we do note that their Completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion and passer rating are all 16th or worse in the league. Still, Tom Brady is having a solid season as he has thrown for 2536 yards with 14 TDs and just five INTs while posting a QBR of 93.1, which is 17th in the league. 

That may not matter in this one as the Eagles have a less than stellar pass defense. Brady threw for 285 yards against the Ravens in his last game, but it wasn’t enough as they still lost by 17. Julian Edelman continues to be his main go-to-guy as he leads the team with 663 yards, while James White is 2nd with 404 yards. Brady does miss TE Rob Gronkowski and Ryan Izzo is their top TE with six catches for 114 yards. The Pats did recently pick up Mohamed Sanu, but Josh Gordon is gone and is now with Seattle. This is still a good passing game, just because of Brady and Edleman, but it doesn’t seem as dominant as in years past. 

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense

The Eagles struggled mightily against the pass last year and they did so at the beginning of the year as well, but they have played much better against the pass of late. The Eagles have allowed 155 yards passing or less in three of their last five games and those three games were against the Jets, Bills, and Bears. Three teams that have been poor when it comes to passing the ball this year. Their other two games over that stretch, they have allowed 325 to Minnesota and 213 to the Cowboys. The Eagles have also allowed 370 yards passing to the Skins, 310 to the Falcons and 414 to the Packers. 

This is not a good pass defense, but they could have a good showing if their front wall can get pressure on Brady and also stop the run. Nathan Gerry is the only player on the team with two INTs and one of them was returned for a TD. Brandon Graham leads the team in sacks with 6.0 while Rasul Douglas leads the team in passes defended with seven. The Eagles are average or below average in most pass defense stats.  

Stats

New England’s Passing Stats

  • 3rd in pass attempts per game (40.0)
  • 7th in passing yards per game (273.9)
  • 17th in completion percentage (64.72)
  • 18th in yards per pass attempt (6.8)
  • 18th in yards per pass completion (10.6)
  • 16th in passer rating (91.9)

Philadelphia’s Pass Defense Stats

  • 14th in pass attempts against per game (34.3)
  • 16th in passing yards per game allowed (239.0)
  • 8th in completion percentage allowed (62.46)
  • 19th in yards per pass attempt (7.0)
  • 22nd in yards per pass completion (11.1)
  • 14th in sacks per game (2.7)
  • 16th in passer rating allowed (91.7)

Who has the Edge?

I have to give the edge to the Patriots in this one. Even though their passing game isn’t to the standards of what it used to be, they are still solid when throwing the ball, especially with the addition of Sanu. I showed you above that the Philadelphia pass defense stats may be a bit misleading because of who they have faced of late. Philly has struggled against good passing teams this year and I can see Brady & company having a big game in this one. Give the edge to the Patriots in this category.

Advantage: New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense
vs. New England Patriots Passing Defense

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense

The Eagles have not been a great passing team this year, but part of the reason has been injuries to their WR corps throughout the year. Alshon Jeffrey has missed a game and so has TE Dallas Goedert, while Desean Jackson has played in just three games after a good start to the year. Zach Ertz has been their one constant and he leads the team in receiving with 527 yards. Jeffrey is 2nd with 353 yards while RB Sanders is 3rd with 305 yards. 

Carson Wentz has had a decent season as he has thrown for 2060 yards with 15 TDs and just four INTs on the year. His passer rating is rather average as he is 16th in the league with a 93.7 rating. Wentz will have his work cut out for him in this one as the Patriots have one of the best pass defenses in the league. It should be fun to watch.  

New England Patriots Passing Defense

The Patriots have struggled against the run of late but their pass defense has been strong al year and as they rank 2nd in the league in that department, allowing just 150.2 ypg through the air so far. To be fair, the Pats have faced the Jets twice so far, the Bills, the Redskins, the Giants, the Browns, and Miami in seven of their nine games, so it is no wonder why their pass defense stats are looking good. Those are all poor passing teams. The Eagles are below average in passing, but they have the weapons to get it done and could exploit this defense in this one. 

The Patriots have allowed just 128.7 ypg through the air over their last three games and just 139 ypg through the air on the road so far. They will face an Eagles’ offense that has averaged 241.8 ypg through the air at home. Something will have to give in this one. Jamie Collins Sr. is tied for 2nd on the team in INTs with three, while he leads in tackles with 38 and sacks with six. He is the heart and soul of the defense right now. Devin McCourty leads the team in INTs with five.   

Stats

Philadelphia’s Passing Stats

  • 18th in pass attempts per game (34.3)
  • 21st in passing yards per game (219.7)
  • 23rd in completion percentage (62.46)
  • 21st in yards per pass attempt (6.4)
  • 19th in yards per pass completion (10.2)
  • 17th in passer rating (91.7)

New England’s Pass Defense Stats

  • 9th in pass attempts against (32.9)
  • 2nd in passing yards per game allowed (150.2)
  • 1st in completion percentage allowed (54.05)
  • 1st in yards per pass attempt (4.6)
  • 1st in yards per pass completion (8.4)
  • 4th in sacks per game (3.6)
  • 1st in passer rating allowed (45.8)

Who has the Edge?

I give the edge to the Patriots in this one. They have not faced many good passing teams this year and it has shown in the stats. Still, it is a good pass defense that has allowed just 139 yards per game on the road and 128.7 yards per game over their last three games. The Eagles have some nice weapons and Carson Wentz is a solid QB, but still, something feels off with their passing game. It has averaged 241.8 ypg at home, but the Pats have had the extra week to prepare, so their defense will be ready. Give the edge to the Pats here.

Advantage: New England Patriots

Intangibles

New England Patriots

The Patriots are 15th in the league in total offense at 366.7 ypg and 2nd in scoring, putting up  30 ppg. On the defensive side of the ball, we note that they are 2nd in yards allowed at 249.3 ypg and 1st in points against, giving up a mere 10.9 ppg. Those are solid numbers, but we do have to be cautious as the Pats have played just two teams win a current winning record in their last eight games. The Pats are 4-1 on the road this year and they have averaged 29.0 ppg and have allowed 10.8 ppg in those games. 

The Patriots are tops in the league in turnover margin per game at +1.9 and 7th in penalties per game at 6.2. New England comes in ranked 1st in offensive yards per point at 12.2 and 1st in defensive yards per point at 22.9, plus 22nd in yards per play and 15th in 3rd down conversions at 39.69. The Patriots have the best coach in the league, but special teams have taken a hit as they have been without Stephen Gostkowski, who is currently on IR.   

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles enter this game at 20th in the league in total offense at 347.0 ypg and 13th in scoring, putting up 24.9 ppg. On the defensive side of the ball, we note that they are 8th in yards allowed at 326.3 ypg and 18th in points against, giving up a mere 23.7 ppg. Philadelphia has gone 3-1 here at home for the year and they have averaged 27.3 ppg and have allowed 18.5 ppg in those games. 

The Eagles are 19th in the league in turnover margin per game at -0.1 and 8th in penalties per game at 6.6. Philadelphia comes in ranked 7th in offensive yards per point at 13.9 and 27th in defensive yards per point at 13.9, plus 23rd in yards per play at 5.2 and 4th in 3rd down conversions at 48.39%. The Eagles have some nice intangibles overall, which includes a solid coaching staff and a nice special teams unit.

Who has the Edge?

I give the edge to the Patriots in this category. The Eagles may have an edge in special teams but the Pats have the extra edges just about everywhere else. New England has a big edge in coaching and their yards per point numbers are the best in the league, on both sides of the ball. Both teams are coming off a bye week, so there is no advantage there, but I give a slight motivational edge to the pats as they are looking for revenge after losing the Super Bowl to the Eagles a couple of years ago, plus they are coming off their first loss of the year and will be pissed, especially with the extra time to stew over it. Give the edge to the Pats here. 

Advantage: New England Patriots

Final Outlook

I am more of an Eagles fan than I am a Patriots fan. In fact, I downright despise that Pats. Still, this is not about personal feelings. It’s about the moola and that has me siding with the Pats in this one. New England was crushed by the Ravens in their last game and it was their first loss of the year. They have had the bye week to stew over that loss and will also be looking for revenge after losing to the Eagles in the Super Bowl two years ago. That’s a double whammy of motivation for the Patriots. 

The Eagles have turned their slow start around as they have won their last two games in a row, but something still feels off about this team. They beat the Bills on the road and the Bears at home in their last two games but we note that prior to those games, they were crushed by both Minnesota and the Cowboys. Those latter two are much closer in the level of competition than the Bears and Bills are. The Patriots have a huge edge on defense while the offenses are pretty much even. The Pats also have the edge in intangibles, especially with Belichick one the sidelines. The line has been trending in the way of the Patriots and I will follow the move here. 

Trends of Note. Courtesy Of Covers.com 

  • The Patriots are 46-21-1 ATS in their last 68 games following a straight-up loss
  • Patriots are 37-15-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
  • 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11
  • The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game
  • The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

The Patriots have gone from -3 to -4.5 while grabbing 79% of the bets. The Sharps are on the side of the Eagles or the line move would be higher. 

New England’s Injury Report

Questionable: DE John Simon, DT Danny Shelton, WR Gunner Olszewski, TE Matt LaCosse, RB Damien Harris, DB Patrick Chung, and DB Nate Ebner

Philadelphia’s Injury Report

Questionable: RB Jordan Howard

Out: RB Darren Sproles, WR Alshon Jeffery, and LB Nigel Bradham

Gametime Weather: Cloudy with Temps around 40.

Prediction: New England -3.5

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I will be going with the Over in this one. When these teams met in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago, there were 74 points scored. We won’t see that many in this one, but we should see around 50. The Eagles have not been spectacular on offense but with the extra week off they should have some new wrinkles that will have success against this tough New England defense. The Pats allowed 37 points in their last game and we note that it was the best offense that they have faced this year. The Eagles have the ability to be a good offense and it will have a good showing in this one, especially since they have averaged 27.3 ppg at home for the year.  

The Patriots have not been as explosive as the last few years, but they are more than capable of hanging up a big number, especially with the week off. The Patriots have averaged 29.0 pg on the road this year and even though the Eagles have allowed a total of 20 points in their last two home games, we note that they were against the Bears and Jets. Philly allowed 27 in each of their first two home games, which were against Washington and Detroit. New England should have a field day with this defense. Look for this one to easily go over the posted total. 

Trends Of Note. Courtesy Of Covers.com  

  • The Over is 6-1 in New England’s last 7 games following a bye week
  • The Over is 6-2 in Philadelphia’s last 8 vs. a team with a winning record
  • The Over is 4-0 the last four games in this series

Prediction: Over 43

Full-game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The Patriots are pissed. They have had an extra week to stew over the fact that they were crushed by the Ravens on the road. This team will come out flying and they hill hang up a ton of points on this less than stellar Philadelphia defense. The Eagles' pass defense has been better of late but facing the Bills and Bears will due that to a defense. The Patriots have a much better passing game than those two teams and the Eagles will go back to struggling against the pass, while the angry Pats score at least 28 points in the contest.

Prediction: Patriots Team Total Over 24.5

Half-time Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I like the Patriots to cover the game overall and it will start with a big first half. New England is the better team here and they are pissed after their bad loss to the Ravens, plus they will be looking for revenge for the Super Bowl loss a couple of years ago. The Patriots will come out fast and grab at least a seven-point lead at the break.

Prediction: New England -2.5

Half-time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I like this game to go over the total overall and it will start with a solid first-half. I like the fact that the Patriots have had a week to prepare after their crushing loss to the Ravens. the Eagles have a pass defense that has looked better of late but it hasn't faced a passing game as these Patriots have in those two games. The Eagles will look to keep pace with the Patriots and that means they will come out throwing a lot early on. Look for the Pats to lead 17-10 at the break.

Prediction: Over 22.5
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.