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Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers,
11-19-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#457 Baltimore
Ravens
#458 Green Bay
Packers

Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Baltimore Ravens (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U)

Line: Baltimore -2.5

Total: 38

The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a bye after losing to Tennessee on the road, 23-20 on Nov. 5. They’ll face Green Bay, who upset Chicago on the road, 23-16 this past week. Quarterback Brett Hundley played well in receiving his first win since taking over as a starter for the injured Aaron Rodgers.

Will the bye help the Ravens?

A bye is usually a good thing, especially for a team that has had as many injuries as Baltimore. Most of their key players are out for the season but there are several players that could return after missing a few games or more. The one key player who could change the offense is RB Danny Woodhead, who hasn’t played due to a hamstring injury since Week 1. He is expected to practice and could play this week. The Ravens went into the bye losing three of their last four games and offensive production has been an issue. Joe Flacco threw for 261 yards with two touchdowns and two picks in their 23-20 loss at Tennessee. The bigger issue was a lack of a running game that amassed just 73 yards on 22 carries. Alex Collins has been their best weapon on offense this season and he was held to 43 yards on 13 carries. On the season, Collins has 604 yards on just 93 carries, but has yet to score a touchdown.

On the season, the Ravens ranked 30th in total offense (286.6ypg) and 32nd in passing yards per game (165.7ypg). The defense is strong against the pass (184.7ypg), but they have struggled against the run (125.9ypg). Flacco is having a terrible season, completing 64.3 percent of his passes for 1,551 yards with eight TDs and 10 picks (72.7 QB rating). At 4-5 with a favorable schedule coming up, the Ravens still have a realistic chance of a earning a wild card berth.

Hundley leads way to win over Bears

Brett Hundley completed 18 of 25 for 212 yards with a touchdown to lead the Packers over the Bears last Sunday. The key for Green Bay was stopping the Chicago running game, as they held them to 55 yards on 17 carries. In the first half, Green Bay led 10-6 thanks to a 37-yard run by Ty Montgomery. Mason Crosby kicked two more field goals to increase the lead to 16-6, but Chicago answered on a 46-yard pass from Mitchell Trubisky to Joshua Bellamy with 10:39 left in the game to cut the lead to 16-13. But Hundley answered right back with a big drive and a 19-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams to seal the game.

Montgomery (ribs) was limited to 54 yards on six carries, while starter Aaron Jones (knee) was knocked out of the game. Rookie Jamaal Williams came on to have his best game of his career with 67 yards on 20 carries. Hundley is now completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 701 yards with two TDs and four picks (69.1 QB Rating). He also has 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

On the season, Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense (313.7ypg) and 19th in rushing yards per game (105.4ypg). They rank 24th in total defense (353.6ypg) and 18th in rushing yards allowed per game (111ypg).

NFL Trends:

Baltimore is:

  • 7-3 ATS last 10 after a bye week.
  • 6-2-1 ATS last 9 on grass.

Green Bay is:

  • 3-8 ATS last 11 in November.

Tough call here because Green Bay looked good last week against Chicago and the Ravens lost to the Bears at home. John Harbaugh is really good after a bye and the Ravens should get several players back from injury. They will have also have two healthy inside defensive tackles in Michael Pierce and Brandon Williams, who are dominant run-stuffers. The Packers will have to throw the ball and the Ravens’ pass defense has been very good this season. Take the Ravens in a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Baltimore

Baltimore is an over team for some reason this season and Green Bay has been an over team in the past, especially with Aaron Rodgers. But neither offense is very dynamic right now and the Ravens need to win with their defense. Baltimore is 7-2 Under after a bye week and 4-1 Under last 5 in November.

Under

4

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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