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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Denver Broncos,
11-19-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#469 Cincinnati
Bengals
#470 Denver
Broncos

Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 4:25pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Sunday afternoon on the NFL gridiron and the Cincinnati Bengals will square off with the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field in Denver, Colorado. The Bengals come in off a very tough 24-20 loss at Tennessee, while the Broncos are off a bad 41-16 loss at home to the Patriots on Sunday night football. These teams met in Cincinnati last year and the Broncos won that game by a score of  29-17.

Bengals Fall To Titans Late

The Cincinnati Bengals have had a rough year so far as they come in at just 3-6 so far, including just 1-4 on the road. One of those road losses was last week in Tennessee as they fell in the game by a score of 24-20. The game was tight throughout and the Bengals had a 20-17 lead with 5:03 left in the game, but on the final possession of the Titans, Marcus Mariota led them on a game-winning drive to walk away with the four-point win. The Bengals have been pretty solid on defense for much of the year, but they have now allowed 23 or more points in each of their last four games. That defense allowed Tennessee to put up 4156 yards of total offense, including 180 yards on the ground, which was not good numbers at all and they will now look to get back on track against a Denver team that has had many issues on offense this year. The offense looked a bit better than it has of late, especially the passing game. Andy Dalton hit 20 of 30 passes in the game for 265 yards with two TDs and no INTs. It was one of his better outings of the year and A.J. Green had one of his better games he has 115 yards receiving and a TD. That TD went for 70 yards and gave the Bengals a 20-17 lead at the time. Dalton has hit 62% of his passes for 2004 yards with 13 TDs and eight INTs while posting a QBR of 88.2, which is 18th in the league. He will face a tough test in this one.   

The Bengals have poor on offense so far as they come in ranked 31st in the league in total offense (274.0 ypg), 27th in passing (203.9 ypg), 32nd in rushing (70.1 ypg) and 30th in scoring at 16.6 ppg. On defense, they have been above average as they come in ranked 14th in total yards allowed (321.0 ypg), 5th against the pass (197.4 ypg) and 27th vs the run (123.6 ypg), while allowing 20.2 ppg, which is 12th in the league.

Broncos Get Blasted At Home By Patriots

The Denver Broncos are struggling as they enter this game having lost their last five games in a row and are now tied with the Chargers for last place in the AFC West. This is not something that many saw coming, especially with one of the best defenses in the league. Their offense has been the real issue, especially of late as they have averaged just 14.3 ppg over their last seven games. That just won’t get it down. The defense has not given up many yards this year, but because of their offense putting them in bad field position, they have allowed a ton of points. This past week against the Patriots, they allowed a lot of points and yards in the 41-16 loss. The Broncos have one of the better pass defenses in the league, but the Pats threw for 297 yards on them. Brady just had his way with this defense, but they will not be facing a good offense in this one. The Broncos have made the switch at QB to Brock Osweiler and he hit 18 of 33 passes for 221 yards with a TD and an INT in the loss to the Pats. Their weakness at the QB position is why this team will not be heading to the playoffs this year.

The Broncos have been a bit below average on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 19th in the league in total offense (328.6 ypg), 19th in passing (215.6 ypg), 13th in rushing (113.0 ypg) and 24th in scoring at 18.4 ppg. On defense, they have been very strong as they come in ranked 4th in total yards allowed (293.6 ypg), 8th against the pass (204.0 ypg) and 5th vs the run (89.6 ypg), while allowing 26.6 ppg, which is 29th in the league.

Trends

Cincinnati is:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five games in November
  • 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game

Denver is:

  • 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
  • 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game

The Broncos are reeling as they have lost their last five games in a row, but this is not a goods Cincinnati team that they are taking on. The Broncos have averaged just 14.8 ppg over their last seven games, but I feel that they will break out in this one against a Cincinnati team that has allowed at least 23 points in four straight games. Brock Osweiler was not horrible against the Pats and I look for him to have a good showing here. I also look for a Bronco defense to bounce back after being shredded the last two weeks, especially since they will be facing one of the worst offenses in the league. Big win for the Broncos here.

Pick: Denver -2.5

This is another game that could be low scoring as both of these offenses have struggled this year. The Bengals have averaged just 16.6 ppg on the year, while the Broncos have put up just 14.8 ppg in their last seven games. Still, I see this one going the other way. The Bengals have allowed 23 or more in each of their last four games, while the Broncos have allowed 912 points in their last two games. These two defenses are not playing well at the moment and that should allow the weak offenses to have a good showing in this one.

Pick: Over 39.5

Confidence: 3

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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