Detroit Lions (5-4; 5-4 ATS; 6-3 O/U) vs. Chicago Bears (3-6; 5-4 ATS; 3-6 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Detroit -3
The Chicago Bears will look to snap a two game skid when they host the Detroit Lions in an NFC North battle Sunday afternoon from Soldier Field. The Lions topped the Browns by a 38-14 score last weekend, and the Bears are coming off a 23-16 home loss to the Packers. The Bears won the first meeting last season by a 17-14 score, and the Lions answered with a 20-17 win in the second meeting.
Lions Overcome Slow Start in Win Over Browns
The Detroit Lions did as expected and defeated the Browns by a 38-24 score last week. Matthew Stafford had a big second half and finished the afternoon with 249 passing yards with three touchdowns against one interception. The 29-year old quarterback is having a productive season, accumulating 2461 passing yards with a 17:5 TD to INT ratio. The Lions finally had success on the ground in the win over the Browns, rushing for 104 yards as a team with Ameer Abdullah leading the charge with 52 yards on 11 carries. The 24-year old running back has been unable to break free for a big game, and has now tallied 469 rushing yards on the season. Lions’ leading receiver Golden State continued his terrific play with six catches for 97 yards and one touchdown. The 29-year old receiver is the king of racking up yards after the catch and is very tough to tackle. Tate has recorded 659 receiving yards on the year. The Lions offense has found their groove and are now ranked seventh in the NFL with an average of 27.1 points per game.
The Lions defense was not at their best in the win over the Browns, conceding 413 total yards which is well above their average yardage allowed. Their usual strong rush defense surrendered 201 rushing yards last week. The Lions have rebounded nicely from a three game skid with two straight wins. They are in second place behind the Vikings in the NFC North and play them on Thanksgiving.
Bears Flat in Loss to Packers
The Chicago Bears did not make one trip to the red-zone in their 23-16 home loss to the Packers last week. Mitchell Trubisky was solid, connecting on 21 of 35 passes for a season-high 297 yards with one touchdown against zero interceptions. The 23-year old rookie quarterback is starting to look more comfortable and has now notched 809 passing yards with a 3:2 TD to INT ratio in five games played. Jeremy Howard managed 54 yards on 15 carries in the loss after rushing for 102 yards in the prior week. The 23-year old running back is having a terrific season, accumulating 716 rushing yards on the season. Dontrelle Inman played his first game in a Bears uniform after being acquired by the Chargers and led all Bears receivers with six catches for 88 yards. The Bears running game remains their best option on offense, however, Trubisky did throw for 297 yards last week and is gaining confidence.
The Chicago defense had trouble stopping the run in the loss to the Packers last week and allowed a total of 342 total yards. Leonard Floyd picked up half a sack and now leads the Bears with 4.5 on the season. Chicago does have a strong pass defense that will be tested in a big way against Matt Stafford this week. They have now dropped two straight games and sit in last place in the NFC North.
The Detroit Lions are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
- 8-0 ATS in their last 8 November games.
The Chicago Bears are:
- No Key Trends
I am definitely taking the Lions with this small spread. The Lions passing game is looking strong led by Matt Stafford, as they are averaging 344 passing yards in their last three games, and Stafford has tossed five touchdowns in his last two games. The Bears defense is decent, however the lions should still do solid solid damage. Furthermore, the Bears offense owns the 31st ranked passing game and their strong running game will be met with the Lions effective rush defense. The Lions were able to win in Green Bay and Minnesota so I am confident they can handle the Bears.
Pick: Detroit Lions
The Bears are not putting many points on the board and the Bears pass defense should contain the Lions offense. The Lions defense is fully capable of shutting the Bears down, and Chicago has scored 17 or fewer points in three straight games, and the under is 4-1 in their last five home games. While I do expect Stafford to have a strong afternoon, the Bears own a strong secondary that should at least slow him down, plus the under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.