New England Patriots (7-2; 5-4 ATS; 5-4 O/U) vs. Oakland Raiders (4-5; 3-5-1 ATS; 5-4 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, November 19, 2017 at 4:25pm EST
Line: New England -5.5
The red-hot New England Patriots will collide with the Oakland Raiders in an AFC clash Sunday afternoon from Mexico City. The Patriots are coming off a convincing 41-16 road win over the Broncos, and the Raiders were off last week and recorded a 27-24 home win against the Dolphins in week nine. This matchup marks the first meeting since the 2014 season in a game New England won by a 16-9 score.
Brady Shines in Patriots Fifth Consecutive Victory
The New England Patriots poured on the points in their dominating 41-16 home win over the Broncos last Sunday night. Tom Brady was outstanding once again, connecting on 25 of 34 passes for 266 yards with three touchdowns against zero interceptions. The 40-year old quarterback is having another brilliant season, leading the entire NFL with 2807 passing yards to go with a 19:2 TD to INT ratio. Brady has not thrown an interception since week six. Rob Gronkowski made his presence felt in the win, making four grabs for 74 yards on seven targets. The 6-foot-6 tight end has been very consistent all season, making at least five catches in each game this season, and has recorded 583 receiving yards on the season. Dion Lewis led the way on the ground with 55 yards on 14 carries and is now second in team rushing behind Mike Gillislee with 326 yards. The Patriots offense is consistently putting up points regardless of the defense and own the number one ranked passing game in the NFL.
The New England defense was sharp in the win in Denver, allowing 221 passing yards which is an improvement. Their defensive play has been much better after a rough start to the season. The Patriots have won five consecutive games and hold a comfortable lead for first place in the AFC East.
Raiders Coming Off Bye Week, Hungry For Win
The Oakland Raiders will be hungry for a win to stay alive in the playoff picture. They were off last week and recorded a much-needed 27-24 home win over the Dolphins in week nine. Derek Carr was solid in that one, connecting on 21 of 30 passes for 300 yards with one touchdown against one interception. The 26-year old quarterback is having an inconsistent season, notching 1954 passing yards with a 13:7 TD to INT ratio. Marshawn Lynch had a solid performance in the win, rushing for 57 yards on 14 carries. The 31-year old running back is having a mediocre season, amassing 323 rushing yards in eight games. Raiders’ leading receiver Jared Cook had a huge game in the win over Miami, racking up 126 yards on eight catches. The 30-year old tight end has tallied over 100 receiving yards in two out of his last three games and has recorded a total of 499 yards on the season. The Raiders offense has been very inconsistent this season, however, they have looked good in two out of their last three games.
The Raiders defense has had their fair share of issues this season and allowed 311 passing yards in the win over Miami in their latest contest. They have only made 13 sacks on the season, the second-lowest total in the NFL. There is still plenty of time left, however, Oakland can’t afford any losing streaks if they want to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
The New England Patriots are:
- 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.
- 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after an ATS win.
- 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
The Oakland Raiders are:
- 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
- 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
- 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
I am taking the Patriots in this contest. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is locked in, they scored 41 points in Denver last week and lead the NFL with an average of 301 passing yards per game. The Raiders are struggling defensively, allowing an average of 29 points in their last three games and allowed over 300 passing yards to Jay Cutler in their previous contest, plus their offense has been wildly inconsistent. Furthermore, the Patriots defense is looking much better, allowing 17 or fewer points in five consecutive games, and I expect another convincing win from the red-hot Patriots.
Pick: New England Patriots
The Patriots offense is rolling behind Tom Brady and the Raiders should do some damage against the Patriots pass defense. Oakland has struggled against the pass at times, and overall they have played poor defense, so look for another big game from Brady, plus the over is 7-1 in the Pats’ last eight games following a straight up win of more than 14 points. The Patriots pass defense will give up yards in the air, and Carr should have a solid performance, plus the over is 4-1 in the Raiders last five games overall. Both clubs have defensive weaknesses that should be exploited in this matchup.