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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Packers vs. 49ers Prediction

Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 8:20pm EST
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 12:24pm EST

Introduction

The San Francisco 49ers will host the Green Bay Packers in an NFC showdown Sunday night from Levi’s Stadium. The Packers were off last week and registered a 24-16 home win against the Panthers in week 10, and the 49ers rallied for a 36-30 home win against the Cardinals on Sunday. Green Bay posted a 33-30 home win against the 49ers last season.

Green Bay Packers Review

The Green Bay Packers will return from their bye week holding onto first place in the NFC North. The Packers have won five out of their last six games overall which included a 24-16 home win over the Panthers on November 10th. Aaron Rodgers has cooled off recently, recording one touchdown pass along with 394 passing yards in his last two games. Overall, the 15-year veteran QB is having another solid season, collecting 2718 passing yards with a 17:2 TD to INT ratio.

Aaron Jones is having a productive season on the ground. The 24-year old RB registered 93 rushing yards against the Panthers, and he has tallied a season total of 589 rushing yards and 11 rushing TD’s. Davante Adams is having a dominating season and he will play a large factor in this game against a great pass defense. The sixth-year WR has accrued 537 receiving yards in just six games played on the season. The Green Bay offense is consistently producing, and they have only been held to below 23 points three times all season.

The Packers' defense hasn't particularly stood out in any area, but they are finding ways to neutralize the opposition. They are coming off one of their best performances of the season, but rank 23rd against the pass and 25th against the run. Green Bay is scoring an average of 25 points, ranking them ninth in the NFL. They are allowing an average of 20.5 points, placing them 14th overall. The Packers are 3-1 on the road.

San Francisco 49ers Review

The San Francisco 49ers enter this one holding a one-game lead ahead of Seattle for first place in the NFC West. They rebounded from their tough overtime loss to Seattle with a hard-fought 36-26 home win against the Cardinals last week. It wasn’t easy as Arizona led for a good portion of the game. Jimmy Garoppolo came through with one of his best performances of his career, accumulating 423 passing yards and four touchdowns. The 28-year old QB is susceptible to picks, and he has amassed 2478 passing yards with an 18:10 TD to INT ratio on the season.

The 49ers running game is among the best in the entire NFL. Matt Breida, who leads the 49ers with 542 rushing yards, sat out last week with an ankle injury and is questionable for this one. If he is unable to play Tevin Coleman will see a bulk of the carries. Coleman usually splits the carries with Breida. The 26-year old RB only managed 14 rushing yards on 12 carries last week, and he is up to 409 yards.

George Kittle also sat out last week with a knee injury and chances are good he returns for this game. The 26-year old tight end is second in team receiving with 541 yards.  The 49ers offense showed great character against Arizona considering they were playing without their top rusher and receiver.

The San Francisco defense hasn’t been quite as dominant in their last three games which included a 27-24 overtime loss to Seattle. They continue to have the #1 ranked pass defense while their rush defense stands at 21st overall. The 49ers are currently averaging 29.5 points, good for second in the NFL. They are limiting opponents to 15.5 points, placing them 2nd overall. San Francisco features a 4-1 home record.

The Running Game

Green Bay Packers Running Offense
vs. 49ers Running Defense

Green Bay Packers Running Offense

The Packers have proved they don’t always need to rely on Rodgers to produce points. They generated over 160 rushing yards in their latest game against the Panthers which played a big role in the win.

Packers #1 running back Aaron Jones is having a solid season considering the Packers will pass more than run. The 24-year old earned three rushing touchdowns and 93 rushing yards in his latest action and has posted 589 rushing yards on an average of 4.4 yards per attempt on the season. Jones is also a useful receiver out of the backfield. He stands third in team receiving with 454 yards.

Jamaal Williams is a solid #2 RB behind Jones. The third-year back rushed for 63 yards in the win against the Panthers and he also has a 104 rushing yard performance to his name this season. Williams has accrued 291 rushing yards on an average of 4.5 yards per attempt.

The Packers offensive line has also played a role in their success this season. They are known to have one of the best offensive lines in football.

49ers Run Defense

The 49ers rush defense isn’t as effective as their pass defense. Opponents will rush frequently due to the 49ers' ability to shut down the pass. Overall this rush defense can be solved.

Fred Warner leads the 49ers with 70 total tackles on the season. He has made 5 tackles for a loss, while linebacker Dre Greenlaw has 37 tackles. Ari Armstead is known for his run stuffing skills. The defensive end has tallied 10.5 tackles for a loss. Nick Bosa has established himself as a prolific pass rusher, but the star can stuff the run as well. He has made 13.5 tackles for a loss.

D.J. Jones is considered a run specialist but has missed a few games with an injury, and is listed as questionable for this one. Ronald Blair III has picked up eight tackles for a loss, but he is now on the IR. Dee Ford has 7.5 tackles for a loss. According to Football Outsiders, the 49ers have a 20% stuff percentage which is above the average of 19%.

Stats

Packers

Rushing Attempts per Game: 24.3 (21st)

Rushing Yards: 1021 (19th)

Average Rushing Yards Per Game: 102.1 (18th)

Average Rushing Yards Per Carry: 4.29 (19th)

San Francisco

Opponent Carries Per Game: 23.4  (10th)

Opponent Rushing Yards: 1105 (20th)

Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game: 110.5 (20th)

Opponent Rushing Yards Per Carry: 4.7 (25th)

Who has the Edge?

I am giving the edge to the Packers on the ground. One area the 49ers are vulnerable is their ability to stuff the run. They are allowing an average of 110.5 rushing yards per game, placing them 20th in the NFL. Aaron Jones consistently averages over four yards per rush attempt and Packers #2 RB Jamaal Williams is also having a productive season with an average of 4.5 yards per rush. The Cardinals just rushed for 135 yards against San Francisco last week, and I expect the Packers to generate solid yards on the ground.

Advantage: Green Bay Packers

49ers Running Offense
vs. Green Bay Packers Running Defense

49ers Running Offense

The 49ers feature the deepest backfield in the NFL which has led to the second-highest yards per game average in the NFL. They have three running backs with at least 348 rushing yards on the season led by Matt Breida with 542 yards. Breida sat out last week with an ankle injury and remains questionable for this one. San Francisco struggled on the ground against Arizona last week, registering only 34 rushing yards.

Tevin Coleman only has five fewer carries than Breida this season. The 26-year old RB is averaging 3.9 yards per attempt compared to 4.4 from Breida, and Coleman has logged a season total of 409 yards. Raheem Mostert is very effective for a #3 RB. The veteran has rushed for over 70 yards twice this season and has 348 yards on the year. Breida and Coleman both have three rushes of at least 20 yards. If Breida does not play, look for Coleman to see the bulk of the carries.

The 49ers offensive line has been an issue at times when it comes to protecting the quarterback, but it hasn’t had a negative impact on their running game.

Green Bay Packers Run Defense

The Packers rush defense is inconsistent similar to their pass defense. They squandered 120 rushing yards to the Panthers in their previous game. The 49ers will run frequently against this defense if Matt Bredia suits up.

Packers LB Blake Martinez is having an outstanding season but isn’t always effective against the run. The 25-year old is all over the field and he has racked up 63 solo tackles and 102 combined tackles on the season.  Martinez also has 4.5 tackles for a loss. Inside linebacker BJ Goodson along with outside linebacker Preston Smith are mediocre against the run.

The Packers defensive line has struggled at times this season which has led to plenty of holes for opposing running backs. Defensive tackle Kenny Clark has struggled against the run at times and he only has 2.5 tackles for a loss. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are stuffing the opposing runner behind the line of scrimmage only 12% of the time, placing them third last in the NFL.

Stats

San Francisco

Rushing Attempts per Game: 34.9 (2nd)

Rushing Yards: 1490 (3rd)

Average Rushing Yards Per Game: 149 (2nd)

Average Rushing Yards Per Carry: 4.3 (114th)

Green Bay:

Opponent Carries Per Game 26.6 (21st)

Opponent Rushing Yards: 1269 (24th)

Opponent Rushing Yards Per Game: 126.9 (25sth)

Opponent Rushing Yards Per Carry: 4.8 (27th)

Who has the Edge?

The 49ers have the decisive edge here. The 49ers stand second in the NFL with 149 rushing yards per game. While Matt Breida is questionable, Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert have combined for over 750 rushing yards. The Packers have surrendered 159 rushing yards and 120 rushing yards in their last two games respectively against the Chargers and Panthers.

Advantage: San Francisco 49ers

The Passing Game

Green Bay Packers Passing Offense
vs. 49ers Passing Defense

Green Bay Packers Passing Offense

The Packers are always in the conversation when it comes to an elite offense with Aaron Rodgers. The future Hall of Famer is having another efficient season, racking up 2718 passing yards with a dazzling 17:2 TD to INT ratio. Rodgers hasn’t been quite as effective as season’s past but is always a threat. He has not tossed an interception in four straight games.

“We’ve been finding a way to win, different ways,” Rodgers said. “I think great teams understand their roles and embrace them and make it more about the team.”

-Aaron Rodgers on the Packers’ success (Source:packers.com)

The Packers feature one of the best receivers in the game in Davante Adams. The 26-year old has tallied over 100 receiving yards in two out of his last three games overall. Adams missed four games due to injury early this season. He has accumulated 537 receiving yards on the year, and the Rodgers/Adams connection is very dangerous.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling played well in the absence of Adams but has slowed up recently, recording only four receiving yards in his last three games. The second-year WR stands second in team receiving with 420 yards. Allen Lazard has passed Valdes-Scantling on the depth chart recently. The rookie WR is off to a promising start to his NFL career, securing 220 receiving yards in five games played on the season. Tight end Jimmy Graham is fourth in team receiving with 310 yards.

49ers Passing Defense

The 49ers feature the #1 ranked pass defense in the NFL. They held Kyler Murray to 150 passing yards last week. San Francisco’s pass rush is a big reason they are so effective against the pass. They lead the entire NFL with a remarkable 39 sacks on the season.

Defensive end Nick Bosa is a force. The 22-year old has tallied seven sacks on the year. He has not recorded a sack in three games. DeForest Buckner is also having a big year, notching five sacks and 41 total tackles.

“The pass rush is real,” Head Coach Matt LaFleur said, starting at as good a place as any. “It’s an elite pass rush. Just consistent pressure. They can do it with four.”

-Packer coach Matt LaFleur on the 49ers' pass rush. (Source: packers.com)

The 49ers also have talented cornerbacks in Richard Sherman and Emmanuel Mosely. Sherman is having a great season. The veteran leads the team with 10 pass deflections and three interceptions. He has conceded 21 receptions on 39 targets from opposing QB’s. Moseley has allowed 19 receptions on 32 targets and has a stellar PFF grade of 74.5. Safety Fred Warner has broken up four passes. The 49ers have 11 interceptions, good for fourth in the NFL.

Stats

Packers:

Passes Completed: 225 (17th)

Average Yards Per Completion: 7.8 (9th)

Passing Yards Per Game: 253.9 (11th)

Passing Touchdowns: 17 (12th)

San Francisco:

Opponent Passing Yards Per Game: 142.5 (1st)

Opponent Passes Completed: 2175 (1st)

Opponent Completion Percentage: 59.7%: (2nd)

Opponent TD Passes: 10: (5th)

Who has the Edge?

I am calling this area a draw. The 49ers feature an outstanding pass defense who can get to the opposing quarterback in a hurry. They are also limiting opponents to an average of 142 passing yards per game. However, Aaron Rodgers is obviously one of the best QB’s in the NFL. He has proven throughout his career that he can solve any defense. Rodgers also rarely throws an interception.

Advantage: Push

49ers Passing Offense
vs. Green Bay Packers Passing Defense

49ers Passing Offense

The 49ers have the luxury of running the ball which takes some pressure off Garoppolo. The 28-year old QB racked up a remarkable 424 passing yards and four touchdowns in the win against the Cardinals last week. Garropolo has notched over 300 passing yards in two out of his last three games, and he is up to 2478 passing yards with an 18:10 TD to INT ratio on the season.

The 49ers have played the last two games without one of their top receivers and #1 tight end George Kittle. The 26-year old tight end has 541 receiving yards along with 46 receptions. Kittle is dealing with a knee injury and he is expected to return for this one. Emmanuel Sanders, who was acquired from the Broncos last month, has 561 receiving yards. Sanders is also considered questionable.

Deebo Samuel is also questionable for this one which would be a huge loss. Samuel has stepped up in Kittle’s absence, bringing in over 100 receiving yards in two straight games. The rookie WR stands second in receiving with 473 receiving yards and will likely be lined up against Packers CB Zaire Alexander or Kevin King. Kendrick Bourne is third in receiving with 231 yards, while Marquise Goodwin has 186 yards.

“I’m just glad we’ve got four more hours for Kittle and Deebo and Emmanuel to rest and recover,” Shanahan said.

-Coach Shanahan on the later start time for his injured players. (Source: nbcsports.com)

Green Bay Packers Passing Defense

The Packers’ pass defense has been inconsistent this season. They squandered over 300 passing yards to Panthers’ QB Kyle Allen in their previous game before the bye. Green Bay has also come through with some big performances which included holding Kirk Cousins to 230 passing yards earlier in the season.

The Packers pass rush is decent. Their two defensive ends in Dean Lowry and Tyler Lancaster only have a 1.5 combined sacks. Linebacker Preston Smith leads Green Bay with 10 sacks, while Za’Darius Smith has 8.5 sacks on the year. Green Bay has 25 team sacks, placing them in the middle at 15th overall.

The Packers have a strong set of cornerbacks led by Jaire Alexander. The 22-year old CB is having a fantastic season. He features a great 69.8 rating on PFF, and has only allowed 36 receptions on 64 targets.

CB Kevin King is the Packers #2 corner. The third-year corner leads the Packers with three interceptions and has 11 pass deflections. King has a 59 rating on PFF and has broken up 38 of 62 passes thrown his way. Safety Adrian Amos has one interception and 56 tackles. Green Bay has secured nine-team interceptions.

Stats

San Francisco:

Passes Completed: 219 (21st)

Average Yards Per Completion: 7.8 (9th)

Passing Yards Per Game: 237.6 (15th)

Passing Touchdowns: 18 (10th)

Green Bay

Opponent Passing Yards Per Game: 257.8 (23rd)

Opponent Passes Completed: 218 (10th)

Opponent Completion Percentage: 62.8%: (11th)

Opponent TD Passes: 12: (9th)

Who has the Edge?

I am calling this one a draw as well. The 49ers run more than any other team other than the Ravens so their passing stats don’t particularly stand out. Garappolo is a talented QB,  but one issue I have with Garoppolo is his turnovers. He has tossed at least one interception in five out of his last six games overall. The Packers have a solid set of corners highlighted by Jaire Alexander who features a terrific 69.8 overall grade on PFF. 

Advantage: Push

Intangibles

Green Bay Packers

Packers’ kicker Mason Crosby has been accurate all season. The veteran has succeeded on 13 of his 14 field goals for a 93% efficiency.  He is 4 for 5 from field goals between 40-49 yards and his longest is a 54-yarder.

The Packers released Derrius Shepherd and acquired Tremon Smith who has 191 return yards on eight attempts, good for an average of 23.9 yards.

Packers' first-year head coach Matt LaFleur is quickly earning a good reputation. He was previously the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans. His first year in Green Bay has been a huge success with an 8-2 record.

49ers

Robbie Gould, who is the 49ers field goal kicker, has missed the last two games with a quadriceps injury and he remains questionable for this one. Gould has connected on only 13 of his 20 field goal attempts. Chase McLaughlin was acquired from the Chargers due to the Gould injury. He has converted on 10 of his 14 field goals with all four misses occurring in the 40-49 yard range.

Rich James Jr. has returned a majority of the kicks. He has tallied 245 return yards on 13 attempts for an average of 18.8 yards.

49ers’ coach Kyle Shanahan is pushing all the right buttons this season. He is in his third year as the 49ers boss and features a 19-23 record in his tenure in San Francisco.

Who has the Edge?

I am giving a slight edge to the Packers due to the 49ers kicking. Robbie Gould is questionable and if he does not play Chase McLaughlin will kick the field goals. The duo of Gould and McLaughlin has gone 23 for 34 on field goals this season. Packers’ kicker Mason Crosby is 13 for 14 on his field-goal attempts this season.

Advantage: Green Bay Packers

Final Outlook

I expect the Packers to win this game. One advantage the Packers have is rest. They are coming off their bye week, while this is the 49ers third game in the last 14 days. San Francisco has been involved in very close games recently and they aren’t always going to come out on top especially against a team led by Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers beat the Cardinals by only three points in week nine, followed by a loss to the Seahawks. They then needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Cardinals last week.

Furthermore, I expect the Packers to make life difficult for Garoppolo. The 28-year old QB has tossed three interceptions in his last two games and 10 on the season. The Packers will make picks as they stand seventh in the NFL with nine interceptions on the season. Packers RB Aaron Jones should also play a big role in this game against a 49ers' rush defense that ranks 20th in the NFL.

The top supporting trends found on covers.com are:

The Green Bay Packers are:

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
  • 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games against the 49ers.

The San Francisco 49ers are:

  • 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 November games.
  • 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games against a team with a winning record.
  • 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against the Packers.

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

Injuries

The 49ers have several notable injuries to keep in mind. Their most significant injury is Matt Breida who leads the team with 542 rushing yards. Breida (ankle) is listed as doubtful and did not practice this week. Expect to see plenty of Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert in this game.

Tight end George Kittle is listed as questionable on the final injury report after missing the last two games. Kittle (541 receiving yards) was limited at practice on Friday. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel (473 receiving yards) is also questionable with a shoulder injury. Emmanuel Sanders (561 receiving yards) is listed as questionable. While the above three are all listed as questionable, they are expected to play. Defensive end Dee Ford is officially out, along with right tackle Joe Staley. Kicker Robbie Gould is doubtful. 

The Packers are looking good on the injury front. The only player listed as out is offensive lineman Cole Madison. Tight end Robert Tonyan and fullback Danny Vitale are questionable.

The line for this one has remained steady at -3. The betting public is leaning towards the Packers at +3 as 59% of the money is on the Packers according to wunderdog.com.

The weather in Santa Clara is expected to be sunny with 68-degree temperatures with low winds.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I expect a high scoring showdown. Aaron Rodgers is always a big threat and the 49ers defense hasn’t been nearly as sharp recently. They squandered 26 points to rookie QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals last week, and the Packers can also get the job done on the ground led by Aaron Jones. The over is a convincing 20-8 in the Packer’s last 28 road games.

In addition, the 49ers continue to excel offensively even with a few key injuries. The Packers will give up yards on the ground with a rush defense that ranks 25th in the NFL. The 49ers have scored at least 28 points in three out of their last four games, and the over is 4-0 in their last four games overall.

Prediction: Over

Full-game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I expect the Packers to neutralize the 49ers and the under on the 49ers team total which can be found on PointsBet is a solid play. This total of 25.5 points will be tough considering the injuries. Matt Breida, who leads the team in rushing, is not playing which is a big void. Also, their top three leading receivers are all questionable for this game. Furthermore, the Packers' defense has consistently contained their opponents this season. They have limited their opposition to 24 or fewer points in eight of their ten games on the season.

Prediction: 49ers Team Total: Under 25.5

Half-time Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I am siding with the Packers on the first half line as well. The Packers are a strong first half team. Their offense has been more dangerous in the first half this season. They stand sixth in the NFL with an average of 14.1 points in the opening half. They are also sharp defensively in the first half where they are holding opponents to 10.3 points.

Prediction: Green Bay -2.5

Half-time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The under on the first half total is worth a look. The 49ers continue to play great defense in the first half, limiting opponents to an average of only 6.6 points. Also, offensively San Francisco is much more productive in the second half where they are logging an average of 16.6 points compared to 12.9 in the first half.

Prediction: Under 24

Half-time Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The under on Tevin Coleman’s rushing total is a prop I recommend. Matt Breida is doubtful and I expect the 49ers to lean more towards Garopollo and their passing game as a result. Garoppolo has been attempting more passes recently. He attempted over 40 passes in two straight games. Tevin Coleman has rushed for less than 40 yards in three consecutive games which makes this total of under 53.5 yards very attainable.

Prediction: Tevin Coleman Rushing Total: Under 53.5
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.