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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Giants vs. Bears Prediction

Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 1:00pm EST
Soldier Field, Chicago

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Sunday, November 24, 2019 at 8:59am EST

Introduction

A pair of major market NFC teams that have struggled this season take the field in the Windy City. The New York Giants are on the road as they make the trip to face the Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon. New York was on their bye last week: they fell 34-27 as the road team in their own building against the Jets in their last game November 10. Chicago came up a 17-7 loser on the road to the Rams last Sunday night in their previous game. The Bears lead the all-time regular season series between the teams 28-21-2 but the Giants have won the last two meetings. That includes a 30-27 victory at home in the most recent matchup on December 2, 2018.

New York Giants Review

New York has had a trying season to say the least as they come into this contest 2-8 and avoiding the basement of the NFC East only due to the incompetence of the Redskins. The Giants opened the season with back to back losses to the Cowboys (35-17) on the road and the Bills (28-14) at home. That prompted a quarterback change from Eli Manning to rookie Daniel Jones. New York responded with back to back wins at Tampa Bay (32-31) and at home over Washington (24-3) before things spiraled downward. The Giants have dropped six straight, losing at home to Minnesota (28-10), at New England (35-14), at home to Arizona (27-21), at Detroit (31-26) and at home against Dallas (37-18) before their game against the Jets leading into the bye week.

In the battle of teams named New York who play in New Jersey, the Giants’ defense again proved to be a letdown. The Giants trailed 14-0 after the opening quarter but rallied to take a 27-21 lead in the third quarter. In a span of 1:50 spanning the end of the third and the start of the fourth quarters, the Giants gave up 10 points to trail 31-27 and couldn’t get their offense going again. All told, the Giants were outgained 294-281, gave up 18 first downs while recording 15 and lost the time of possession by a 30:44 to 29:16 margin. For good measure, the lone two turnovers of the contest were committed by Big Blue, including a fumble return for a score that provided the eventual margin of victory.

Chicago Bears Review

Chicago continues to struggle as their offense has been abysmal and even that may be generous. The Bears opened the season with a 10-3 home loss to the Packers in the first game of the NFL campaign on a Thursday night and things haven’t gotten a whole lot better since. Chicago bounced back with a last-second win on the road over Denver (16-14) before rolling over Washington (31-15) on Monday Night Football and shutting down Minnesota (16-6) at home to reach the quarter pole 3-1. Since then, it’s been all downhill: the Bears lost to Oakland (24-21) in London before the bye: coming out of the bye, they were drubbed 36-25 at home by the Saints in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. The Bears followed that up with a 17-16 home loss to the Chargers when Eddy Piniero missed a game-winning field goal as time expired. Chicago then lost at Philadelphia (22-14) before holding off Detroit (20-13) at home to snap a four-game slide. That set up Sunday night’s contest against the Rams.

In a game where offense was seemingly optional, the Bears couldn’t get past their early kicking woes as a pair of promising drives came up with no points. Chicago dominated the opening quarter but the game was scoreless as Piniero missed field goals of 47 and 48 yards: the team turned the ball over on downs in Rams territory as well. The Bears gave up 10 second-quarter points and that was too much to overcome on the night. Chicago got their lone score to cap a 12 play, 80-yard drive on their opening drive of the second half. The Bears could do little more offensively on the night. Chicago was outgained 283-267 despite a 17-13 edge in first downs and a 32:44 to 27:16 advantage in time of possession. The Bears forced two turnovers while committing only one but in the end, it didn’t matter.

*Full preview and prediction coming Thursday*

The Running Game

New York Giants Running Offense
vs. Chicago Bears Running Defense

New York Giants Running Offense

New York is trying their best to move the ball on the ground though at times, they’ve been limited by the game flow and situation. The Giants have run the ball for at least 100 yards in five of their 10 games this season. By the same token, they’ve been held to 64 yards or less in three of their games. Over the last month, New York has had two games where they hit the century mark but they were completely shut down in their last contest before the bye. The Giants were limited to 17 carries for a season-worst 23 yards by the Jets.

Saquon Barkley leads the team on the ground with 101 carries for 402 yards and two scores. He suffered a high ankle sprain against the Buccaneers in week 3 and missed three games. Wayne Gallman (28 carries, 109 yards, two TD) and Jon Hilliman (30 carries, 91 yards) will have to pick up the slack. Daniel Jones has 32 carries for 208 yards and two scores on the ground as well. The Giants have six run plays of at least 20 yards this season: Barkley has three while Gallman, Sterling Shepherd (four carries, 42 yards) and Bennie Fowler (one carry, 20 yards) each have one. The Giants have moved the sticks 52 times via the ground game this season.

Chicago Bears Run Defense

Chicago has been extremely effective at limiting opposing teams from doing damage on the ground this season. The Bears have allowed just four teams to run for at least 100 yards against them this season. Chicago has limited opposing teams to 3.6 yards or less per carry in seven of their 10 games this season. The Bears have given up two 100-yard games in the last month, including last week against the Rams. In that contest, they allowed Los Angeles to run the ball 34 times for 110 yards and a pair of scores.

Danny Trevathan is second on the team with 70 tackles (50 solo) and a forced fumble on the season. He’s dealing with an elbow injury sustained against the Lions on November 10. Roquan Smith (team-high 79 tackles), Kyle Fuller (52 tackles), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (51 tackles, two fumble recoveries) and Prince Amukamura (41 tackles, forced fumble, fumble recovery) are other guys that are among the team leaders in stops this season. Khalil Mack (34 tackles, four forced fumbles) leads the team with nine tackles for loss while Nick Williams (27 tackles, fumble recovery) adds 5.5 while Leonard Floyd (28 tackles) has 4.5: Roy Robertson-Harris (23 tackles) has recorded 3.5 on the year. As a team, the Bears have recorded 44 tackles for loss: they have forced 11 fumbles while recovering seven on the year.

Stats

NYG

  • 29th in run play percentage (33.75 percent)
  • 28th in rushing attempts per game (21.4)
  • 23rd in rushing yards per game (94.2)
  • 13th in yards per carry (4.4)
  • Tied for 22nd in rushing TD (six)
  • Tied for 13th in longest rush (59 yards)

CHI

  • 18th in percentage of run plays against (40.71 percent)
  • 18th in run plays per game against (26.5)
  • 8th in rushing yards allowed per game (95.6)
  • 4th in opposing yards per carry (3.6)
  • Tied for 20th in rushing TD allowed (10)
  • 1st in longest rush allowed (23 yards)

Who has the Edge?

Barkley hasn't been the same this season as he was as a rookie. Some of that may be game situation and some of it may be due to his ankle injury: the fact remains that he's been limited in his effectiveness since coming back from that. Running against a Chicago defense that has been pretty tough against the run this season isn't going to be a cure for what ails the Giants' ground game. The Bears are going to throw everything but the kitchen sink to make New York beat them through the air. Chicago gets the upper hand here.

Advantage: Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears Running Offense
vs. New York Giants Running Defense

Chicago Bears Running Offense

The run game hasn't been all that great for the Bears so far this season. Of course, it's been a changing of the guard in the Windy City as Jordan Howard is gone, taking the workhorse back from the last couple years out of the mix. Chicago has hit the century mark on the ground just twice in their 10 games this season. Those came in week two against Denver (29 carries, 153 yards) and in week eight against the Chargers (38 carries, 162 yards) this season. In the past three weeks, the Bears haven’t run for more than 81 yards: last week against the Rams, they finished with 24 carries for 74 yards.

Rookie David Montgomery leads the team with 143 carries for 497 yards and five scores on the year. Cordarrelle Patterson has 12 carries for 78 yards while Mike Davis (11 carries, 25 yards) and Tarik Cohen (38 carries, 116 yards) have to be better when given an opportunity. Chicago has just three plays on the ground that have gone at least 20 yards this season: Montgomery has two of them while Patterson has the other. The Bears have picked up only 44 first downs via the ground game so far this season.

New York Giants Run Defense

New York’s run defense has been up and down this season. The Giants have allowed six teams to run for at least 100 yards on the year: five of those have run for at least 140 yards. On the flip side, the Giants have held two teams to under 60 yards on the ground. In the past month, New York has alternated good games with bad: they’ve allowed 156 yards to Arizona and 172 to Dallas while holding the Lions (59 yards) and Jets (72 yards) in check. New York has kept five opponents to 3.4 yards per carry or less on the season.

Safety Antoine Bethea leads the team with 72 tackles (50 solo) plus two fumble recoveries on the season. Jabrill Peppers (71 tackles, three forced fumbles) along with linebackers Alec Ogletree (52 tackles), David Mayo (43 tackles) and Markus Golden (43 tackles, fumble recovery, TD) are near the top of the leaderboard for the Giants when it comes to tackles this season. Golden leads the team with 9.5 tackles for loss while Dalvin Tomlinson (31 tackles) adds 5.5 and Peppers has five on the year. As a team, New York has racked up 56 tackles for loss: they have forced five fumbles and recovered four, including one fumble return for a score, this season.

Stats

CHI

  • 23rd in run play percentage (37.85 percent)
  • 23rd in rushing attempts per game (22.9)
  • 29th in rushing yards per game (79.9)
  • 29th in yards per carry (3.5)
  • Tied for 24th in rushing TD (five)
  • 16th in longest rush (55 yards)

NYG

  • 29th in percentage of run plays against (47.34 percent)
  • 29th in run plays per game against (30.3)
  • 23rd in rushing yards allowed per game (122.7)
  • 10th in opposing yards per carry (four)
  • Tied for 28th in rushing TD allowed (12)
  • 8th in longest rush allowed (41 yards)

Who has the Edge?

New York hasn't been awful against the run this season. There are reasons for that, which we'll get to a little later on. Chicago's offense has been dismal this season as nothing has seemed to work out the way the team would want it to at this point. The Bears have to find a way to move the sticks more effectively and that is something that is going to plague them until they find some consistency. Until we see something resembling competence from the Chicago offense, you have to give a slight edge to the Giants here.

Advantage: New York Giants

The Passing Game

New York Giants Passing Offense
vs. Chicago Bears Passing Defense

New York Giants Passing Offense

New York has had to throw more likely than they wanted to this season as they have found themselves in double-digit deficits far more often than they would like. The Giants have gone over the 300-yard mark four times this season. New York has cracked the 300-yard mark twice in the last four games: they threw for 322 yards against the Lions in week 8 and followed that up with 308 yards against the Jets in week 10. The Giants’ offensive line has been porous in that stretch, giving up at least three sacks in each game and a total of 22 in the four contests.

Eli Manning has completed 56 of 89 passes for 556 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions this season. He has been sacked twice for a loss of 13 yards. Daniel Jones took over for Manning in the week 3 game against Tampa Bay and earned the starting job: he is 187 of 297 for 1,984 yards with 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has been sacked 32 times for 247 yards in losses this season. Evan Engram leads the team with 44 receptions for 467 yards and three scores this season. Sterling Shepherd (25 catches, 267 yards, TD, Golden Tate (33 receptions, 417 yards, three TD), Darius Slayton (27 grabs, 394 yards, five TD) and Barkley (33 catches, 258 yards, TD) are valuable options. As a team, the Giants have 29 pass plays that have covered at least 20 yards. Slayton leads the team with seven such receptions while Engram is next in line with four.

Chicago Bears Passing Defense

Chicago has made life tough for opposing quarterbacks and receivers this season. The Bears have allowed just one 300-yard passing game all season: that came back in week three in a blowout win over Washington when Case Keenum totaled 332 yards. Chicago has held its last four opponents to 269 yards or less: the Lions hit that mark in week 10. The Bears were solid against the pass last week as they contained the Rams passing game, limiting them to 173 yards through the air. One point of concern though is the dwindling return on the pass rush: Chicago had 17 sacks in their first four games of the season but only eight in the last six games combined.

Williams leads the team with six sacks while Mack is right behind him with 5.5 on the season. Floyd adds three and Robertson-Harris contributes 2.5 on the year. All told, 10 different players have at least one sack for the Bears this season. Amukamura and Fuller each have eight pass defenses to share the team lead. Buster Skrine (29 tackles, two forced fumbles) and Mack are next with four apiece. Fuller has three picks to lead the team while Clinton-Dix (TD) contributes a pair of picks. Smith and Nick Kwiatkowski (29 tackles, three tackles for loss, two sacks, forced fumble, pass defense) both have one.  As a team, the Bears have 25 sacks to go with 41 pass defenses and seven interceptions, including a pick-six, this season.

Stats

NYG

  • 4th in pass play percentage (66.25 percent)
  • 20th in completion percentage (63)
  • 18th in passing yards per game (228)
  • Tied for 12th in TD passes (17)
  • Tied for 20th in INT thrown (10)
  • 26th in net yards per pass attempt (5.9)
  • Tied for 7th in longest pass play (75 yards)
  • Tied for 19th in passer rating (85.8)

CHI

  • 15th in pass play percentage against (59.29 percent)
  • 10th in passing yards per game allowed (227.3)
  • 25th in completion percentage allowed (66.8)
  • Tied for 3rd in TD passes allowed (nine)
  • Tied for 20th in INT (seven)
  • Tied for 16th in sacks (25)
  • 9th in passer rating allowed (86.2)
  • 7th in net yards per pass attempt (6.3)

Who has the Edge?

Jones has done a decent job making plays this season as a rookie quarterback. His problem is that he has a penchant for turning the ball over quite a bit. This season, he's thrown eight interceptions and fumbled the ball 13 times, with 10 of those coming in the last four games. Factor in that the Giants have given up 22 sacks in their last four games and the Bears' defense has to be salivating. If there's ever a chance for Chicago's pass rush to get right, it's here. Look for Mack and company to have a big day getting after the rookie.

Advantage: Chicago Bears

Chicago Bears Passing Offense
vs. New York Giants Passing Defense

Chicago Bears Passing Offense

Chicago has seen their passing game sputter all season long and it’s a major reason why the team has struggled this season. The Bears have not thrown for 300 yards in a game this season: their high-water mark was a 253-yard showing against the Chargers back in week 8. Since that contest, Chicago has been held under 200 yards through the air in each of their last three games. The Bears threw for just 125 yards against the Eagles, 173 yards against the Lions and 199 yards last week against the Rams in a losing effort.

Mitch Trubisky has completed 176 of 282 passes for 1,580 yards with nine touchdown passes and four interceptions on the year. He's been sacked 23 times for 139 yards in losses this season. He missed time with a separated shoulder earlier this season. Chase Daniel is 45 of 64 for 435 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions this season. Allen Robinson leads the team with 57 receptions for 633 yards and three scores on the year. Cohen has 43 catches for 251 yards and three scores while Taylor Gabriel has reeled in 28 passes for 334 yards and four touchdowns. Anthony Miller (23 receptions, 272 yards) is a solid secondary option. Chicago has 21 pass plays of at least 20 yards this season: Robinson leads the team with eight while Miller and Gabriel each have four this season.

New York Giants Passing Defense

New York has had their problems against the pass this season and that’s a major part of their struggles on the defensive side of the ball. The Giants have seen five teams throw for more than 300 yards against them this season, including a 405-yard showing by Dallas’ Dak Prescott in the opening week of the season. New York has allowed only one 300-yard game in the past four contests, which came against the Lions in week nine when Matthew Stafford threw for 342 yards. In their game against the Jets before the bye, the Giants gave up 230 yards through the air.

Golden leads the team with 6.5 sacks on the year. Lorenzo Carter (33 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, two pass defenses, forced fumble), Tomlinson and Dexter Lawrence (26 tackles, forced fumble) each have 2.5 on the season. Jenkins leads the team with 11 pass defenses while Peppers adds five and Ogletree has four on the year. Jenkins leads the team with four interceptions while Ryan Connelly (20 tackles, sack, 2.5 tackles for loss, two pass defenses) has two. Peppers (TD) and Bethea have one interception each. As a team, the Giants have 24 sacks, 35 pass defenses and eight interceptions on the year, with one defensive touchdown.

Stats

CHI

  • 10th in pass play percentage (62.15 percent)
  • 16th in completion percentage (63.9)
  • 30th in passing yards per game (182.8)
  • 24th in TD passes (12)
  • Tied for 10th in INT thrown (six)
  • 32nd in net yards per pass attempt (5.3)
  • Tied for 26th in longest pass play (53 yards)
  • Tied for 22nd in passer rating (83.9)

NYG

  • 4th in pass play percentage against (52.66 percent)
  • 25th in passing yards per game allowed (259)
  • 28th in completion percentage allowed (68.7)
  • Tied for 17th in TD passes allowed (17)
  • Tied for 11th in INT (eight)
  • Tied for 22nd in sacks (24)
  • 28th in passer rating allowed (103.5)
  • 31st in net yards per pass attempt (8.3)

Who has the Edge?

The Giants have been a sieve through the air and that's made things difficult for the defense to come up with stops. There is a lot of youth running through the New York defense and it has led to problems with mental lapses and blown coverages on a regular basis. Of course, the Bears have been awful moving the ball through the air this season and one has to wonder if Trubisky is playing out the string on his Chicago career down the stretch. With New York's pass defense, you have to think that they're in trouble but the Bears can't move the ball with any consistency through the air. This one is a wash.

Advantage: Push

Intangibles

New York Giants

New York is 22nd in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 20.3 points per game this season. The Giants are 24th in the league in total offense with 322.2 yards per game and stand 25th in yards per play with an average of 5.1 yards per snap. New York is 30th in scoring defense as they allow 28.9 points per game. The Giants are 27th in total defense as they give up 381.7 yards per game and stand 27th in yards per play as they allow six yards per snap. New York is 31st in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are -12 this season.

The Giants are 20th in the league in red zone success as they convert 51.85 percent of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns this season. New York is a solid 10th in red zone defense as they give up touchdowns on 50 percent of their opponents’ trips inside the 20 this season. The Giants are 15th in the league in third down conversions as they convert 39.85 percent of their chances. New York is below average getting off the field on third down defensively as they are 21st: opposing teams are converting 40.8 percent of their opportunities. The Giants are 25th in time of possession as they hold the ball 47.96 percent of the time this season.

Aldrick Rosas has hit 19 of 22 extra point attempts and eight of 10 field goal tries this season with a long of 36. Riley Dixon has been good at flipping the field in the punt game: he averages 46.5 yards per punt on 40 boots with a 41.8-yard net average. He has dropped 16 punts inside the opposing 20-yard line with two touchbacks this season. Corey Ballentine averages 25.6 yards on 10 kick returns with a long of 52 while Cody Latimer averages 27.1 yards on eight returns with a long of 50. In the punt return game, T.J. Jones averages 12 yards on eight runbacks with a long of 60 while Tate averages 14.3 yards on four punt returns with a long of 17 this season. Dexter Lawrence blocked an extra point against Tampa Bay back in week 3.

Chicago Bears

Chicago is only 28th in the league in scoring offense as they put up 16.9 points per game on the season. The Bears are 30th in the league in total offense with 262.7 yards per game and stand 30th in yards per play with 4.3 yards per snap. Chicago is fourth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 17.4 points per contest. The Bears are a solid 8th in total defense as they allow 322.9 yards per game and stand sixth as they give up only five yards per play. Chicago is tied for 10th in the takeaway/giveaway department as they are a +4 on the season.

The Bears are 8th in red zone success as they have cashed in 62.5 percent of their drives that got inside the opposition’s 20-yard line into touchdowns. Chicago is 11th in red zone defense as they held opposing teams to a 52.94 percent success rate as far as scoring touchdowns goes. Chicago is currently 29th in the league in third down conversions as they have converted 30.53 percent of their situations while going five of 10 on fourth down this season. The Bears are solid in getting off the field as opposing teams have converted 35.11 percent of their third downs, which is eighth in the league. Chicago is 22nd in the league in time of possession as they hold the ball 48.23 percent of the time.

Eddy Piniero, who took over the kicking job after Cody Parkey's infamous double-doink miss in the playoffs last season, is 17 of 18 on extra points and 12 of 17 on field goals with a long of 53 this year. Pat O'Donnell has averaged 45.3 yards per kick on 35 punts this season: he has a net average of 41.3 yards with 17 punts inside the opposition's 20-yard line. He has two touchbacks in addition to having a punt blocked but has a 75-yard boot to his credit. Patterson has averaged 29.6 yards on his 21 kick returns, including a 102-yard return for a score, while Cohen has averaged 10.7 yards on 22 punt returns with a long of 71.

Who has the Edge?

There isn't a ton of excitement to push the needle either way in this one. The Giants are struggling defensively but they get the break of facing a Chicago offense that struggles to move the ball. Chicago has been solid defensively, which has kept them in games on a regular basis. The Giants are prone to turning the ball over, which is going to be a problem if they run into a similar situation here. Chicago has the edge in the return game while Rosas is a slight edge in the kicking game for the Giants. Based on the Bears' defense and the giveaway/takeaway differential between the teams, give Chicago a slight edge

Advantage: Chicago Bears

Final Outlook

Talk about a contrast of styles between the teams this season. The Giants have the ability to move the ball but the fact that they turn the ball over far too often can short circuit drives. New York has major problems on the defensive side of the ball and can be carved up through the passing game on a regular basis. Chicago's offense has been dismal but their defense can keep them in games. Facing a Giants team that coughs up the ball a lot could give the Bears short fields to work with and that could help spark the offense. Chicago had a similar performance against the Redskins in week three as they took advantage of a similar situation.

According to Covers.com, the Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12. New York has gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. New York turns the ball over a couple of times, setting the Bears up for easy scores and that proves to be the difference. Give Chicago the advantage at home.

Prediction: Chicago Bears -6

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

We've seen both teams have problems putting points on the board this season. The Giants are 22nd in the league in scoring offense while the Bears are 28th in that category this season. New York has scored 17 points or less in five of their 10 games this season and has gone over the 30-point mark just once. Chicago has been held to 16 points or less in six of their 10 games with just one game with 30-plus points on the year. Will we see either team crack the 20-point mark in this contest?

The under is 4-0 in the Giants' last 4 games in Week 12 and 9-3 in their last 12 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Chicago has seen the under go 4-0 in their last four in November, 4-0 in their last four overall, 4-0 in their last four on grass and 7-1 in their last eight at home. The winning team might only need 21 or 24 points to prevail here: look for the under to hit as the Bears shut down the Giants' offense while Chicago struggles to move the chains offensively again in this contest.

Prediction: Under 40.5
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.