The Detroit Lions (4-6) will host the Buffalo Bills (7-3) on Thanksgiving Day. This will be the first head-to-head meeting between these teams since 2018.
I am on a 14-6 (70%) Best Bet run, including four of my last five. Grab today's top play here.
The team to beat according to oddsmakersThe Buffalo Bills are favored to win the Super Bowl this season with +450 odds according to Draft Kings. The Bills jumped out to a 6-1 start this season before suffering back-to-back three-point upset losses to the Jets and Vikings. Buffalo bounced back on Sunday, winning a "home game" in Detroit 31-23 over the Browns, in a contest that was moved due to extreme snowstorms in the Buffalo area. Winning the battle in the running game is not easy against Cleveland, but the Bills rushed 33 times for 171 yards while holding the Browns to just 80 yards on 26 carries, with Nick Chubb being shut down for 19 yards on 14 attempts. Devin Singleton ran the ball 18 times for 86 yards for the Bills, both season highs.
The Bills have also been stingy on defense, ranking 13th allowing 327.4 yards per game, but fifth-best, holding opponents to just 17.4 ppg. Offensively, Buffalo is in the top 10 in scoring, total offense, passing and rushing yards. Quarterback Josh Allen is second in the NFL with 2,930 passing yards per game and third with 21 touchdowns and a 73.3 QBR. Allen has also thrown 10 picks. Stefon Diggs is Allen's top target ranking second in the NFL with 76 catches and third with 1,033 yards and eight touchdowns.
Lions looking for 4th win in a rowThe Lions' season got off to an opposite start than the Bills. Detroit opened up with a 1-6 record, which included a five-game losing streak. Detroit has not quit, now rolling off three straight wins as an underdog beating the Packers, Bears, and Giants. Talking about the playoffs is a stretch at this point, but Detroit does have four of its final seven remaining games against teams with a losing record.
Good morning.— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 21, 2022
Jameson Williams will return to practice today. pic.twitter.com/o8iwxY5dbe
The Lions' strength is on offense, ranking in the top-11 in scoring, total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards. Jared Goff is 10th in the NFL with 2,442 passing yards, 13th with a 55.5 QBR, and has 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Armon-Ra St. Brown has missed one game this season but still ranks 10th in the NFL with 56 catches and leads the team with 594 receiving yards.
The Lions' defense is going to have a tough time stopping Buffalo, seeing that they tend to struggle to stop anyone. Detroit is in the bottom four in points allowed, total yards, passing, and rushing yards allowed.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
I really hate laying double-digits on road favorites in the NFL, especially against a red-hot team. As much as I want to take the Lions here, I can't. Both of these teams have a high-powered offense, but the issue is I'm not sure how Detroit will be able to stop this Bills offense. They can't stop the run or the pass. I see Buffalo moving the ball at will, and the Bills' defense also forcing Jared Goff to make some key mistakes. Although the Detroit Lions will do their best to keep up, Buffalo will come up with two to three more stops in this game and cover.
Full-Game Total Pick
The over has shot up from 51.5 to 54, but even if it shoots up to 58, that still might be too low in this game. The Buffalo Bills have now scored 30 and 31 points in back-to-back weeks inside of a dome and will be playing in the same location they played last week, but now against the NFL's bottom-rated defense. The Lions' offense has also been rolling, scoring 31 points in back-to-back games on the road. The Bills' defense will challenge Detroit, but this Lions' offense is averaging 30.4 at home this season, and even if they fall behind big, they will fight to add points until the final whistle. Hammer the over. Bills 38 Lions 24.