Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#273 Green Bay Packers vs.
#274 Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 8:20pm EST
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Written by Mark Ruelle

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The Green Bay Packers travel to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the high-flying Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Packers find themselves in unfamiliar territory as they come into this game with a losing record and well out of the division hunt in the NFC North. The Eagles, meanwhile, were the last undefeated team in the NFL before being upset at home two weeks ago by the Washington Commanders. They nearly lost two in a row before squeaking out a 17-16 win over the Colts on Sunday. The opening kick is scheduled for 8:20pm EST.

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Strange, New World

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are not used to being in this position after Thanksgiving. The team finds themselves out of the playoff picture with just a 4-7 record and well behind the high-flying Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North. On Sunday, the Packers can gain a measure of respect by upending the one-loss Philadelphia Eagles in Philadelphia. To do so, however, they will need to put together their most complete game of the season. Last week, one week after the Packers surprised the Dallas Cowboys with an OT win, they were dominated at home by the Titans in a 27-17 loss. Rodgers went 24-of-39 for 224 yards and two scores but was shut out in the fourth quarter when they needed to make a play. The Packers' defense surrendered over 300 yards passing to the run-heavy Titans to drop their sixth game in seven tries.

"Extremely disappointed right now to put on a performance like that," Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. "I don't even know what to say. It was nothing like a few days ago, and that's why you're only as good as your last game and every time you step out on that field, you've got to go out and do it."

The Packers knew that they had their work cut out for them this year after losing all-pro wide receiver Davante Adams in an off-season trade. They did not, however, expect the transition to be so painful. Green Bay is just 26th in the NFL in scoring defense. They are 14th running the football and just 19th passing the football despite the presence of future Hall-of-Famer Rodgers. The Packers are also uncharacteristically 27th in the NFL in turnover differential and 20th in penalties. The Packers' defense has also not been as stout in a season as they've had to be. They are 16th in scoring defense overall this season. The team is ranked 25th against the run, which could be a huge issue against the Eagles' run-heavy offense. They are more effective against the pass, ranking 4th in the NFL.

Key Injuries: Rodgers (thumb) admitted publicly that he is playing with a broken thumb. In addition, LB De’Vondre Campbell (knee) remains out and several Packers players are reported to have the flu, including TE Robert Tonyan.

Eagles Soaring

The Philadelphia Eagles have been one of the featured stories of the NFL season after winning their first nine games of the season and in convincing fashion. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has developed into an MVP candidate this season, equally effective running and throwing the football. Last week, after an upset loss to the Commanders six days earlier, the Eagles nearly fell again to the Colts on the road. Trailing 16-10 with under two minutes to go, Hurts delivered yet again with an 8-yard scoring run with 1:20 to go in the game. The touchdown helped the Eagles to a 17-16 win and earned them their 7th straight road win. Hurts went 18-of-25 through the air for 195 yards and a touchdown. He also ran the ball 16 times for 86 yards and a touchdown in another MVP-level performance.

"(Coach) Nick (Sirianni) just kept telling me to be who I am," Hurts said. "Some things weren't going our way, but I felt there was never a doubt."

The Eagles, with the best record in the NFL at 9-1, are not surprisingly at or near the top of several categories in the NFL this season. The Eagles have the 4th best-scoring offense in the NFL. They have the sixth-best rushing attack and the 12th-best passing attack in the league. The Eagles have been opportunistic and also ranked first in the NFL in turnover differential. The Eagles have the 6th best scoring defense as well. The team is ranked 19th against the run and 2nd against the pass. Philadelphia is also ranked 13th in the NFL in penalties per game.

Injury Report: The Eagles look healthy coming into this matchup, listing only CB Josh Jobe (hamstring) as limited in practice.

 

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The Eagles have struggled through a hiccup over the last two weeks, losing to the Commanders as a double-digit favorite and then squeaking past the Colts by one despite being nearly a touchdown favorite. Now they are slightly under a touchdown favorite to a Packers' team that has lost six out of seven games. The Packers are also 26th in scoring offense going up against a Philadelphia defense ranked 6th in the NFL. One week have the Packers' defense sold out to stop the run against a run-heavy Titans team and gave up over 300 yards passing, they will be torn o whether to do the same to a Philadelphia team that has dominated on the ground. A new wrinkle in this one, however, is that the best runner also happens to be the quarterback, Hurts. Philadelphia will wreak havoc on the Packers' defense and bounce back in a big way against a Packers' team that should be a bigger dog if not for the Rodgers' effect. Don't fear the near-touchdown line, Philadelphia has gotten through a midseason lull and will pound the Packers in this game.

Take Philadelphia -6.5

Prediction: Philadelphia -6.5

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Rain is in the forecast on Sunday night in Philly, which should serve the Eagles high flying defense better than it does the Packers. Hurts will produce with his legs in this game more than he does his arm. Green Bay has not faced a quarterback that can move quite like Hurts yet this season and they will struggle to contain him. The Packers, however, have been below average all season on offense, save for the game against the Cowboys. It is time to commit to the idea that this team is not very good offensively, especially away from home.

Take the under, 46.5 points.

Prediction: Under 46.5
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Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.