Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#261 Houston Texans vs.
#262 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, November 27, 2022 at 1:00pm EST
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Sunday, the (1-8-1) Houston Texans will travel to Miami Gardens, FL to take on the (7-3) Miami Dolphins. Kickoff will be at 1:00 PM EST inside Hard Rock Stadium. The last time that these two teams matched up, the Dolphins walked away with a 17-9 win.

The Houston Texans are coming into this one after losing to the Washington Commanders, 23-10. They struggled on the offensive side of the field, as they couldn't score enough points to keep that game competitive. They will have to be more efficient on the ground and through the air if they want to challenge the Dolphins on the road.

The Miami Dolphins are entering this matchup after taking down the Cleveland Browns, 39-17. Their offense stayed humming in that one, as they continued to march up and down the field. They will need to continue to put up points in a hurry if they want to get their fifth win in a row.

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Can the Texans Show Up on the Road?

The Houston Texans are currently in last place in the AFC South, as they have continued to slide in the wrong direction. They have now lost five games in a row, as they will be looking to break that streak in this one. On offense, they are scoring 15.9 points per game and they are averaging 285.9 total yards. This is the 30th most points scored per game and the 32nd most yards. They have struggled to consistently move the ball all season. Houston is averaging 192.2 passing yards per game, which is the 26th most in the league. Davis Mills was also benched for this game, as Kyle Allen will get the start instead. He will look to get the ball to Brandin Cooks, as he leads the team with 461 receiving yards and one touchdown. Houston is also running for 93.7 yards per game, which is the 29th least in the NFL. Dameon Pierce is the lead back for the Texans, as the rookie has been their top weapon this season. He has recorded 780 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the field, the Texans have had issues slowing down the run. Their front seven continue to struggle to tackle, as they have gotten consistently gashed on the ground this season. They are currently allowing 23 points per game and 389.6 total yards. This is the 31st most yards allowed per game and the 18th most points. Their secondary has held its own, though. They are only allowing 239.8 passing yards per game, which is the 14th least in the NFL. Unfortunately, they are allowing 178.9 rushing yards per game, as this is the most rush yards allowed per contest. Jonathan Owens continues to lead this defense, as he has recorded 90 total tackles this season. Last week he had 10 total tackles against Washington, as he was all over the field.

Injury Report: Neville Hewitt LB (Hamstring) and Derek Stingley Jr. CB (Hamstring) are both listed as questionable.

Can the Dolphins Stay Hot?

The Miami Dolphins are currently tied for first place in the AFC East. They are (3-2) on the road this season, but they have won four straight games. On offense, they are scoring 25.2 points per game and averaging 391.5 total yards. This is the sixth most points scored per game and the third most total yards. They have shown that they can consistently move the ball on the ground, but their passing attack has carried them. Miami is throwing for 293.8 yards per game, which is the second most in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa will start at quarterback, as he has been on fire this season. He has thrown for 18 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. He will look to get the ball to Tyreek Hill, as he leads the team with 1,148 yards and four touchdowns this season. The Dolphins are also running for 97.7 yards per game. This is the 27th most rush yards averaged per game, as they will keep their opponents on their toes with their play calling. Raheem Mostert leads the team with 543 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

On defense, the Dolphins made a few moves at the trade deadline to secure their defensive line. They traded for Bradley Chubb from the Broncos, as he has recorded six sacks this season. Miami is also allowing 24.1 points per game and 356.7 total yards. This is the 23rd most points allowed per game and the 21st least amount of yards. They have been much better against the run this season, as they are only allowing 116.9 rushing yards per game. This is the 16th least in the league, as they continue to get into their opponents' backfield. Their secondary has not been as strong, though. The Dolphins are surrendering 239.8 passing yards per game, which is the 22nd most in the NFL. Elandon Roberts continues to lead this defense, as he has recorded 62 tackles and 1.5 sacks this season. Against the Browns, he had seven total tackles.

Injury Report: Hunter Long TE (Concussion), Teddy Bridgewater QB (Knee), Erik Ezukanma WR (Eye), River Cracraft WR (Illness), and Keion Crossen DB (Shoulder) are listed as questionable. Byron Jones CB (knee) is out.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

This spread is simply too big for me to back the Dolphins. I see them winning this game outright, but it isn't easy to blow out any team in the NFL. The Texans have also benched their starting quarterback, as they will be turning to Kyle Allen in this one. I see this giving the Texans a spark on the offensive side of the field, as they will score just enough points to cover this spread. They are also better at stopping the pass than the run, as I see them stopping the Dolphins at different times in this game. They are allowing the 14th least amount of passing yards per game, as they will drop back and force the Dolphins to beat them on the ground. This won't happen, though. Miami is only running for the 22nd most rushing yards per game, as they will struggle if they can't consistently move down the field through the air. I believe that any NFL team can win on any given Sunday, as they will keep this game closer than people expect and cover this spread. Miami is also giving up the 23rd most points per game, as I expect the Texans to find the end zone multiple times in this game.

Pick the Houston Texans and take the points (+14).

Prediction: Houston Texans +14

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

I will be hammering the over (47) points in this game, as I see both of these offenses scoring enough points to push this total over the number. Neither of these defenses has impressed me this season, as I see the offenses being the story in this one. The Houston Texans have continued to struggle on the defensive side of the field and I don't see that trend stopping now. The Dolphins are scoring the sixth most points per game and averaging the second most passing yards. Tua will continue to find his weapons and the Dolphins will score enough points to push this total over the number. The Texans are giving up the 31st most yards per game and the 18th most points. They won't make consistent stops and the Dolphins will score the majority of the points that we need to push this total over the number. Now, the Texans will be starting Kyle Allen at quarterback, as I see this giving Houston a spark. The Miami defense also continues to give up points, as they are allowing the 23rd most in the NFL. They have also struggled against the pass, as the Texans will throw the ball all over them and score just enough points to push this total over the number.

Pick the over (47) points and expect both offenses to consistently score throughout this one.

Prediction: Over 47
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!