The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8) will host the Atlanta Falcons (4-6). Both of these teams are 4-6 against the spread this season and coming off of blowout losses.
Atlanta has covered the spread the last five times these two franchises have met, winning four of those games outright. The last time the Jaguars and Falcons met head-to-head was on December 22, 2019 when Atlanta came away with a 24-12 win as a 7.5-point home favorite.
Falcons still in playoff hunt, but not looking like a playoff teamThe Atlanta Falcons need to win five of their last seven games to avoid their fourth consecutive losing season. Atlanta is currently last in the NFC South, but with the current No. 6 and No. 7 seeded Minnesota Vikings and San Franciso 49ers only 5-5, the Falcons playoff hopes are not dead. Atlanta has looked dead for the last two weeks, losing 43-3 to Dallas on November 14 and 25-0 to New England last Thursday.
Falcons injury report: Updating game status of Cordarrelle Patterson, plus an impactful defensive starter is questionablehttps://t.co/0LydrKWxjC— Tori McElhaney (@tori_mcelhaney) November 26, 2021
The Patriots outgained the Falcons 308 to 165 in the last game, and the Pats only committed one turnover, compared to four by the Falcons, two coming offMatt Ryaninterceptions. Ryan did complete 19 of 28 passes for 153 yards for the game. On the season, the man once known as "Matty Ice" is 15th in the NFL with a 52.1 QBR, with 2,427 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
The Falcons are averaging 17.8 ppg this season and rank 28th with 308.3 yards of total offense. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 28.8 ppg, and 19th giving up 362.3 yards per contest. The Falcons have struggled to close out games, as they are allowing an NFL worst 11.6 ppg in the fourth quarter this season.
Jags have lost 23 of their last 26 gamesUrban Meyer has had a rough first season in Jacksonville, but the team has already doubled its win total from last year. The Jaguars' last win came 9-6 as a 14.5-point dog to Buffalo on November 7, but they have dropped their last games two since falling 23-17 at Indianapolis and 30-10 as a 6.5-point home dog to San Franciso last week. The 49ers outgained the Jaguars 333 to 2000 in total yardage, and the Jaguars also lost the turnover battle 2 to 0.
Thursday Injury Report pic.twitter.com/nJg46lY2mZ— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 25, 2021
On the season, Jacksonville is averaging 15.9 ppg. They are 15th in the NFL with 112.5 rushing yards per game and 24th with 206.9 passing yards. Trevor Lawerence, the No. 1 player taken in the 2021 Draft, is 27th in the NFL with a 35.2 QBR. He has been a bit disappointing, throwing for 2,141 yards, with eight touchdowns and nine interceptions.James Robinson, the leading rusher, is questionable for Sunday. Robinson has 568 rushing yards on 5.1 per attempt and seven touchdowns. Carlos Hyde, who would likely be the lead man if Robinson can't go, has 211 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per attempt and no touchdowns.
Jacksonville is allowing 26.2 ppg, and they are 20th in the NFL, allowing 363.10 yards per game. The Jaguars have done poorly pressuring opposing quarterbacks, ranking 27th with only 1.8 sacks per game.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
After being embarrassed in back-to-back weeks against two teams that appear to be playoff-bound, I expect to see some urgency from Atlanta on Sunday. As bad as both teams have been this season, Atlanta still has playoff chances, whereas Jacksonville doesn't. Atlanta has also covered the spread in five of its last six road games against a team with a losing home record.
The Jaguars' offense is one-dimensional right now with a banged-up James Robinson, and rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been shaky. Jacksonville has failed to cover the spread in six of its last eight games at home, and I don't think they will cover on Sunday either.
Full-Game Total Pick
There have been 43 points or less scored in each of the last five games played by Jacksonville, with the Jags scoring 10 points or less in three of those games. The Falcons offense has been a train wreck lately as well, only scoring three combined points over the last two weeks. Going back through a large sample size, 31 of the last 43 November games involving Atlanta have gone under the total and the Jags have played to the under in five of their last six games during November. I think 46 combined points is a lot to ask for here. Take the under.