Cincinnati Bengals (3-4; 3-4 ATS; 3-4 O/U) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3; 4-3 ATS; 4-3 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, November 5, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Jacksonville -4
The Jacksonville Jaguars will collide with the Cincinnati Bengals in an AFC matchup Sunday afternoon from EverBank Field. The Bengals edged the Colts 24-23 last week, and the Jaguars were off last week and crushed the Colts 27-0 in their latest action. These teams last faced off in the 2014 season in a game the Bengals won by a 33-23 score.
Bengals Escape with Narrow Victory Over Colts
The Cincinnati Bengals were not at their best but still managed to sneak out a 24-23 home win over the Colts last weekend. Andy Dalton was decent, connecting on 17 of 29 passes for 243 yards with two touchdowns against zero interceptions. The 30-year old quarterback has been unable to get in a groove this season, recording 1603 passing yards with a 11:8 TD to INT ratio. A.J. Green was kept quiet, bringing in only three catches for 27 yards. The 29-year old wide receiver is having another solid season, racking up 572 receiving yards with four touchdowns. The Bengals running game struggled against last week, amassing 58 rushing yards with Joe Mixon leading the way with 18 yards on 11 carries. The rookie running back has now collected 253 rushing yards on the season. The Bengals offense has not been able to get in a rhythm this season which is a big reason they are below .500.
The Bengals defense was mediocre last week but did come up with a big pick-six that led them to victory. They allowed 331 total yards which included 115 rushing yards. Overall, the Cincinnati defense has been solid this season, especially against the pass. They have now won three out of their last four games but find themselves in third place in the AFC North.
Jaguars Blank Colts Before Enjoying Bye Week
The Jacksonville Jaguars head into this contest well-rested after enjoying their bye week. They had their offense firing on all cylinders in their convincing 27-0 road win over the Colts in their previous contest. Blake Bortles was tremendous, connecting on 18 of 26 passes for 330 yards with one touchdown. The 25-year old quarterback has been inconsistent at times this season and has notched 1398 passing yards with a 9:5 TD to INT ratio. Allen Hurns came through with his best performance of the season, making five grabs for 101 yards. The 25-year old wide receiver is second in team receiving behind Marqise Lee with 345 yards. The Jaguars played without Leonard Fournette in the win over the Colts, however, he is expected to suit up in this one. The 22-year old rookie running back is having a spectacular rookie season, accumulating 596 rushing yards with six touchdowns. The Jaguars running game ranks number one in the entire NFL with an average of 169 yards per game.
The Jacksonville defense is having an outstanding season which is a big reason they are 4-3. They shutout the Colts last week by conceding only 232 yards. They are very tough to run against, however, they will give up yards in the air. The Jaguars are tied for first with the Titans atop the AFC South division.
The Cincinnati Bengals are:
- 3-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games against a team with a winning record.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are:
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
- 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
I am taking the Jaguars with this smaller spread. The Bengals offense continues to flounder, they only managed 17 points from their offense last week against the Colts who own the worst defense in the NFL. They will be up against the number one ranked Jaguars defense this week, and could be in for a tough afternoon. The Jaguars are holding opponents to an average of only 161 passing yards per game so it will be tough for Dalton to do big damage, and the Bengals running game has been subpar. Furthermore, the Bengals rush defense is below average and the Jaguars feature the number one ranked running game in the NFL led by Leonard Fournette who should be back this week. All signs point to a convincing Jaguars victory.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars running game should have a very productive afternoon against a Bengals defense that just allowed 23 points to a terrible Colts offense. I expect a huge game on the ground from Jacksonville which should play a key role in this low total converting, plus the over is 5-0 in their last five home games. While I do expect a strong performance from the Jaguars defense, this is a low total and the Bengals won’t need many points for the over to convert, plus the over is 5-0 in the Jaguars last five games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game.