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Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans,
11-5-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#461 Indianapolis
#462 Houston

Sunday, November 5, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Betting Trends


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Indianapolis Colts (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U) vs. Houston Texans (3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS, 5-2 O/U)

NFL: Sunday, November 5, 2017 at 1:00 p.m. EST

The Line: Houston Texans -13. Total: 49.

The Indianapolis Colts will be hoping to halt a three-game losing streak when they visit the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis coming off consecutive setbacks at the hands of Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati. The Texans have alternated losses and wins the whole way this season, most recently falling at Seattle last week.

Out of Luck

As expected, Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck will not practice this week and is out for Week 9. Luck has been sidelined all season after undergoing surgery on his throwing shoulder. He was taken off the physically unable to perform list prior to the regular season but has not even been listed as doubtful–just out–for any game. In part, because Indianapolis is 2-6 and has at times not even been competitive in games, it sounds increasingly likely that Luck will miss the entire 2017 campaign.

“We’re going to exhaust all resources (to get him healthy),” head coach Chuck Pagano assured. “It’s (about the) long-term–next 10 to 12 years for this guy. Going to make sure he’s right. We want the kid healthy. Nobody is more frustrated than him. It isn’t fun for anybody.”

Jacoby Brissett will continue to run the offense in Luck’s absence. Brissett is completing 60.4 percent of his passes this year for 1,642 yards (184.4 per game) with five touchdowns and four interceptions. He has also rushed for 135 yards and three scores.

Tumultuous week

Last week for Houston started with owner Bob McNair now infamously saying at an owners meeting, “We can’t have the inmates running the prison.” It ended with a last-minute 41-38 loss at Seattle. It also included offensive tackle Duane Brown firing back at McNair’s comments, calling them “ignorant” and “embarrassing.” The turmoil carried over into Monday when the Texans traded Brown to the Seahawks in exchange for cornerback Jeremy Lane plus a 2018 fifth-round pick and a 2019 second-round pick.

Brown, 32, has spent all 10 years of his career with Houston after being selected with the 26th overall pick of the 2006 draft. He has two years remaining on on a six-year, $53.4 million contract and will likely replace Rees Odhiambo as Seattle’s starting left tackle. Lane, 27, started at cornerback opposite Richard Sherman in Seattle and made a goal-line interception of Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLIX. He signed a four-year deal with the Seahawks prior to the 2016 season.

NFL Trends:

The Indianapolis Colts are:

  • 1-4 ATS in their last five road games
  • 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the AFC
  • 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the AFC South

The Houston Texans are:

  • 5-1 ATS in their last six overall
  • 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the AFC
  • 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games against the AFC South

Indianapolis was competitive from start to finish at Cincinnati last Sunday, eventually losing 24-23. That has not always been the case this season. The Colts lost at Los Angeles 46-9 in Week 1, got blown out 46-18 at Seattle in Week 4, and were shut out 27-0 by Jacksonville in Week 7. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the AFC, and 0-4 ATS in its last four against the AFC South. The Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall, 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 against the AFC South, 5-1 ATS in their last six following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in their last six on fieldturf. Don’t be surprised if those trends continue.

Pick: Houston Texans -13

Whenever the Texans take the field, you can count on a lot of points being scored. On the defensive side of the ball, J.J. Watt is out for the year and Brian Cushing is suspended. On offense, quarterback Deshaun Watson is well on his way to setting all kinds of rookie records. Watson continued his hot streak despite losing to Seattle, throwing for 402 yards and four touchdowns (he was picked off three times, but one was a desperation heave at the end of the game). The over is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six overall, 45-22 in their last 67 on the road, 5-0 in their last five against losing opponents, 4-0 in their last four on the road against opponents with losing home records, and 4-1 in their last five on fieldturf. It is also 5-0 in the Texans’ last five overall, 4-1 in their last five at home, 4-0 in their last four against the AFC, and 5-0 in their last five on fieldturf. Additionally, the over is 4-0 in Indianapolis’ last four trips to Houston. Look for this one to go over the total.

Pick: Over 49


Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is a freelance sports writer based in Atlanta, Georgia. He has previously worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.


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