Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS, 6-2 O/U) vs. Dallas Cowboys (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS, 5-2 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, November 5, 2017 at 8:30 p.m. EST
The Line: Dallas Cowboys -1. Total: 51.5.
The Dallas Cowboys will be looking to win their third game in a row when they host the Kansas City Chiefs at AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Dallas is coming off consecutive victories over San Francisco and Washington. The Chiefs halted a two-game skid by beating Denver on Monday night.
Field goals, field goals, and more field goals
Kicker Cairo Santos went down with a groin injury in Week 3. It is safe to say the Chiefs’ made the correct decision in finding his replacement. Kansas City snagged little-known rookie Harrison Butker off the Panthers’ squad and–at least so far–the rest is history. Since missing his first-ever NFL field goal attempt in a Monday night win over Washington on Oct. 2, Butker has nailed 18 in a row. He is 15-for-15 in the last four games and also a perfect 11-for-11 on extra-points this season. The former Georgia Tech standout went 5-for-5 in a 29-19 win over Denver on Monday night and made his second kick of more than 50 yards.
“I have way more field goals then I ever made in college, probably for my career,” Butker commented. “It’s crazy. In one season in college I’ll probably have like, maybe nine field goals or something, and now — I don’t know, how many have I made? Eighteen now? It’s crazy.”
He has attempted 19 field goals in just five games, and the 19 are tied for sixth in the entire NFL even though many kickers have played eight games.
The same old story
As usual, the big story surrounding the Cowboys is the status of running back Ezekiel Elliott. As of Tuesday afternoon, his six-game suspension is in effect. Of course, that has been the case for Elliott just about every single week and so far he has finagled out of it on every occasion. Through seven games this season, Elliott has 690 yards and six touchdowns on a 4.2 yards-per-carry average. He also has 210 receiving yards and two additional scores.
“With the knowledge that I have, the circumstances aren’t treating him fair,” owner Jerry Jones said of the NFL’s decision to suspend Elliott for violating the personal-conduct policy. “Two years ago this wouldn’t be an issue, before Ray Rice.”
If Elliott is sidelined, Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden will see increased workloads. Morris has three 1,000-yard seasons in his NFL career, while McFadden was the league’s fourth-leading rusher in 2015. Rod Smith could see some action.
The Kansas City Chiefs are:
- 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall
- 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games
- 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records
The Dallas Cowboys are:
- 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
- 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records
- 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with winning road records
Kansas City’s offense has not been any good once it gets near opponents’ end zones. That is why Butker has attempted 19 field goals. But the Chiefs are also putting their kicker in position at an alarming rate. That’s because they are third in the NFL in total offense behind only New England and New Orleans. They have committed only three turnovers–tied for the fewest in the NFL with Buffalo. The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 on the road, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against winning opponents, 4-0 ATS in their last four on fieldturf, and 5-1 ATS in their last six following a win. Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, 0-4 ATS in its last four against winning opponents, 0-5 ATS in its last five at home against opponents with winning road records, and 8-21-1 ATS in its last 30 on fieldturf. Count on those trends continuing.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +1
Elliott’s status is worth monitoring, but the Dallas offense has never had any trouble running the football regardless of who is in the backfield. McFadden and company should also be more than capable. As for Kansas City, it is moving the football impressively and simply needs to get touchdowns instead of field goals in order to improve upon its current ranking of third in scoring offense (29.5 per game). The over is 4-1 in the Chiefs’ last five overall, 6-1 in their last seven on the road, and 5-2 in their last seven on fieldturf. It is also 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last four overall, 4-1 in their last five at home, 5-0 in their last five against winning opponents, and 4-1 in their last five on fieldturf. Look for this one to go over the total.