Detroit Lions (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U) at Green Bay Packers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS, 4-3 O/U)
When and Where: Monday, Nov. 6, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc., 8:20pmET
Line: Detroit -2.5
Last year, Green Bay swept Detroit, but they had a quarterback named Aaron Rodgers. It’s now Brett Hundley’s team and the hope is that Hundley can upgrade his play after coming off a bye. The Packers lost at home to New Orleans on Oct. 22, while the Lions are coming off a home loss on Sunday night to Pittsburgh (20-15).
Lions settle for field goals against Steelers
Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford completed 27 of 45 for 423 yards, but did not throw a touchdown pass against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. Matt Prater accounted for all the Lions 15 points with five field goals. This was the first loss after a bye for Detroit in their last six tries. The key play of the game took place in the third quarter after Chris Boswell nailed a 38-yard field goal for Pittsburgh to take a 13-12 lead. Detroit drove all the way down the field but instead of kicking a field goal to take a lead, the Lions decided to go for it on 4th-and-1 and Stafford was sacked by DL Tyson Alaulu. Pittsburgh took advantage and scored their last points on a 97-yard touchdown pass from Ben Roethlisberger to rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster with 3:01 left in the third quarter.
Prater kicked his last field goal with 12:54 left in the game as the Lions pulled within five. On the next drive, they were driving for more points and wide receiver Golden Tate fumbled the ball away after a 34-yard completion. Once again, the Lions had no running game with 71 yards on 22 carries. The Steelers were held to 75 yards on 29 carries but Roethlisberger tossed for 317 yards and that big play was the difference. On the season, Detroit ranks 19th in yards per game (324.3ypg) and just 28th in rushing yards (82.1ypg). They allow 346.1 yards per game (21st) and 91.6 rushing yards (7th).
Jones has given the Pack a lift
The Packers can’t rely on Brett Hundley to be Rodgers, but he needs to be better than he was in their last game against New Orleans, completing 12 of 25 for 87 yards with no TDs and a pick in the 25-16 home loss. The good was that Green Bay may have found a legitimate prime back in Aaron Jones, who rushed for 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD. That included a 46- yard run to start the game. A Hundley 14-yard run gave the Packers 14-7 lead with 8:37 left in the second quarter, but the Saints pretty much took over after that. The Packers got down 16-14 late in the third quarter but took the lead on a 46-yard Mason Crosby field goal with 14:50 left in the game. But the Saints scored the last 10 points of the game as the Packers just didn’t have enough in the passing game.
The Packers ran for 181 yards for just 79. They allowed 324 passing yards and 161 rushing yards but did pick off Drew Brees twice. That kept the Packers in the game. But for the Packers to get to the playoffs, they need to throw the ball. They are averaging just 310 yards per game (22nd), 101.6 rushing yards (18th) and 208.4 rushing yards (24th). They allow 348.9 yards per game (23rd) and 223.1 yards per game in the air (16th).
- 6-0 ATS last 6 in November.
- 6-1 ATS last 7 in Week 9.
Green Bay is:
- 1-4 ATS last 5 in November.
- 1-5 ATS last 6 after a SU loss.
So Green Bay is 4-1 ATS last 5 in series, but the favorite is 16-5 ATS last 21 in this series. Of course, if Rodgers was playing, the Packers would be the favorite. But they are not and Stafford is certainly capable of putting up bigger numbers against a defense that’s not as good as Pittsburgh’s. Go with the Lions.
This is a tough call because the Lions could put up a lot of points. But since Hundley took over, Green Bay looks like an under team. They went under against the Saints and way under when he took over against Minnesota after Rodgers broke his collarbone. The Lions are 5-1 Under last 6 in November and 22-8 Under last 30 road games.