The Houston Texans (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U) meet the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9, 6-5 ATS, 7-4 O/U) in a divisional bout on Sunday afternoon. The Texans were dealt a loss by the Titans in their previous clash. The Jaguars had their bye last week. Houston posted a 24-20 win against Jacksonville last month.
Can Jacksonville cover this spread at home? Keep reading for the Texans vs. Jaguars prediction
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Houston Dealt Surprising Home Defeat
The Houston Texans are in a rut. Houston has dropped four of their previous six games. The good news is they play in a weak division and stand two games ahead of the Colts atop the division with only five games remaining in the season. Houston did manage a dominating win against the Cowboys two weeks ago but was dealt a surprising 32-27 home defeat by the Titans last week in a bout that had the Texans marked as huge eight-point favorites. The Texans have covered in two of their previous five games.
C.J. Stroud is having a decent season but has chucked some costly picks recently. The 23-year-old QB has reached 250 passing yards on five occasions after posting 247 passing yards last week. Stroud has collected 2875 passing yards and a 14:9 TD to INT ratio on the season.
Joe Mixon has been a steady threat, amassing 100 or more yards in six games this season. The 28-year-old RB only had 22 yards last week and has issued 786 rushing yards on the season. Nico Collins was solid in the defeat last week, bringing in 92 receiving yards. The 25-year-old WR has yielded 713 receiving yards. Stefon Diggs remains on IR. The Houston offense has scored 23 or fewer points in three of their last five games. They are averaging 336 yards per game.
The Texans' defense is a strength but has not been quite as sharp recently. The group gave up 26 against the Lions and 32 points on 369 yards against a weak Tennessee offense last week. The squad has yielded 26 or fewer points in nine of 12 games on the season. The pass defense is fifth while the rush defense is 11th.
Houston is averaging 23.8 points on the season, ranking them 11th. They are conceding an average of only 22.3 points, placing them 15th.
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Jacksonville Returns After Bye Week
The Jacksonville Jaguars are searching for positives before the season nears its conclusion. It's been a disastrous season. Jacksonville beat the Colts early in the season and New England in October. They have since dropped four consecutive games in a challenging schedule. This includes a road loss against the Eagles and an ugly 52-6 road loss against the Lions in a bout that had the Jags as 14-point dogs. They had the bye last week. The Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their previous five games.
Trevor Lawrence did not play against the Lions due to a shoulder injury. He practiced on Thursday and while he is questionable, there is a good chance he plays. The 25-year-old QB is having a decent season, recording 2004 passing yards and an 11:6 TD to INT ratio. If he can't play, Mac Jones will be under center. Jones has struggled, posting 277 passing yards and an 0:3 TD to INT ratio.
Jacksonville run more than pass. Tank Bigsby also did not play against the Lions. He was at practice and is going to play. The 22-year-old RB has 519 rushing yards. Travis Etienne Jr. has posted 50 or fewer rushing yards in six straight games and has 325 rushing yards on the season. Brian Thomas Jr. posted 82 yards in the recent defeat. The 22-year-old WR is having a solid year, generating 689 receiving yards. The Jacksonville offense is posting an average of 290 yards per game.
The Jaguars defense is the main culprit in many of the defeats. The unit has conceded at least 28 points on six occasions. They gave up 28 against the Eagles last month and 52 points on 645 total yards against the Lions just before the bye. They especially struggle against the pass, marking 32nd while the rush defense is also a weakness, placing 26th.
Jacksonville is scoring an average of 18.9 points on the season, rating them 25th. The Jaguars are conceding an average of 28.7 points, pegging them 30th.
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Best Bets for Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
The Houston Texans have not been at their best. They have dropped four of their last six bouts including an embarrassing home loss against Tennessee. The Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t winning games but have been competitive except for the loss in Detroit before the bye. They have covered in four of their previous five games.
Furthermore, Jacksonville has a decent running game. The Texans' rush defense is decent but can be solved, ranking 11th. Jacksonville accumulated 158 rushing yards against the Texans in the first meeting and rushing leader Tank Bigsby is playing after missing one game. Also, QB Trevor Lawerence is expected to be back in action. Three of the Jaguars' previous four defeats have been by five or fewer points.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
I expect a barrage of scoring. Houston piled on 435 total yards against the Jaguars in the first meeting, scoring 24 points. They have averaged 24 points in their previous five games. The Jaguars' defense has been exploited, conceding 28 or more points in three of their previous four clashes.
In addition, Jacksonville is generating points. While they struggled the previous two games, it was with Mac Jones at QB. They have scored at least 23 points in three of their previous five bouts. The Texans defense gave up 32 points last week. The over is a convincing 5-1 in the Jaguars' previous six clashes.
