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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs,
12-16-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#305 Los Angeles
Chargers
#306 Kansas City
Chiefs

Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 8:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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A huge game within the AFC West will take place this evening as the San Diego Chargers will battle it out with the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. The winner of this game will take first place in the division. The Chargers enter this game off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while the Chiefs are off a 26-15 home win over the Raiders. The Chiefs won in LA by a score of 24-10 earlier in the year.

Bolts Continue Hot Play With Rout Of Skins

The Los Angeles Chargers are playing their first year in LA and they had a new head coach at the beginning of the year to boot. They lead them to a 0-4 start and a home stadium that saw ore of their opponents fans in it than their own. Well, now the fans are starting to show up and believe as the Bolts have won seven of their last nine games to pull into a tie with the first place Chiefs. This team is playing very well at moment and will be looking for revenge from a 24-10 loss at home to the Chiefs earlier in the year. Los Angeles comes into this game off a solid 30-13 home win over the Washington Redskins and they played very well on both sides of the ball in the game. On offense, the piled up 488 yards of total offense, including 174 yards on the ground and that has to real encouraging for the Chargers as they have really struggled to run the ball this year.  Leading the ground attack was Melvin Gordon, who had 78 yards and a TD in the win. Philip Rivers had a solid outing as he hit 18 of 31 passes for 319 yards with two TDs and no INTs. On the year, he has hit 62.8% of his passes for 3611 yards with 23 TDs and just seven INTs, while posting a QBR of 97.2, which is 10th in the league. He has now thrown eight TDs and no picks in his last four games. Rivers threw for 237 yards in the first game but had no TDs and three INTs. The defense also played well in the game as they allowed just 201 yards of total offense to the Skins. They look to keep it going in this one.  

Los Angeles has been a very good team on offense this year as they come in ranked 4th in the league in total offense (372.7 ypg), 2nd in passing (273.2 ypg), 24th in rushing (99.5 ypg) and 15th in scoring at 22.9 ppg. On defense, they have been a bit above average as they come in ranked 12th in total yards allowed (325.1 ypg), 5th against the pass (200.3 ypg) and 29th vs the run (124.8 ypg), while allowing just 17.3 ppg, which is 3rd in the league.

Chiefs End Skid With Win Over Raiders

The Kansas City Chiefs roared out to a 5-0 start on the year, but since then it has not been all rosy for this team as they have won just two of their last six games. Now they are a home dog to a team that started the year at 0-4. The Chiefs come into this game off a 26-15 home win over the Raiders and it was a game that they needed in the worst way as it broke a four-game losing streak that they were on. The offense has been a bit of an issue for them down the stretch as they have averaged just 18.6 ppg over their last five games after putting up 29.5 ppg over their first eight games. Now they will look to get that offense going against a very hot defensive team. It will not be easy. In their win over the Raiders, they had a 26-0 lead as the teams headed to the 4th quarter, but the Raiders then scored 15 points to make the final a bit more respectable. The Chiefs put up 408 yards of total offense in the game, including 165 yards on the ground. Kareem Hunt led the attack on the ground with 116 yards and a TD and he ran for 172 yards and a TD in his first meeting with the Bolts this year. Alex Smith hit 20/34 passes against the Raiders for 268 yards and an INT, while tossing no TDs. He has thrown for 3507 yards with 23 TDs and just five INTs on the year while posting a QBR of 104.4, which is 2nd in the league. He threw for just 155 yards in the first meeting but had two TDs and no INTs.  

The Chiefs have been very good on offense this year as they come in ranked 6th in the league in total offense (371.3 ypg), 9th in passing (254.7 ypg), 112th in rushing (116.6 ypg) and 6th in scoring at 25.3 ppg. On defense, they have been poor as they come in ranked 28th in total yards allowed (373.4 ypg), 28th against the pass (248.5 ypg) and 30th vs the run (124.8 ypg), while allowing 22.2 ppg, which is 15th in the league.

Trends

Los Angeles is:

  • 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game
  • 1-5 ATS in their last six games in December

Kansas City is:

  • 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game
  • 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the AFC West

The Los Angeles Chargers are on a roll, while the Chiefs are heading the other way. Can the Bolts keep it going? They are installed as a two-point favorite in this game and I don’t entirely agree with that. The Bolts are a good team, but the Chiefs are at home and they come in off a nice 26-15 home win over the Raiders and they got their ground game going, which is not a good sign for the Bolts, who have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Rivers has been hot of late, ut the Chiefs shut him down in the first meeting and I look for their defense to have a good showing in this one. Go with the Chiefs in this one, especially knowing that the Chargers are just 2-6 the last eight games in this series.

Pick: Kansas City +2

The first game saw just 34 points being scored. Will this one follow suit? Both of these teams have strong offenses, but both have played ball control offense of late. The Chargers have been solid on defense all year as they are 3rd in the league in points allowed, giving up just 17.3 ppg, while in their last three games that defense has allowed just 246.3 ypg and 9.7 ppg and the Chiefs have averaged just 18.6 ppg in their last five games. The Bolts don’t go uptempo on offense and they have averaged just 20.5 ppg on the road, while the Chiefs have allowed just 18.2 ppg at home. This will be a playoff-like game and those tend to be low scoring, so I will go with the under I this one.

Pick: Under 43.5

Confidence: 4

David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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