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The Kansas City Chiefs will aim for their second straight win when they host the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC clash Sunday afternoon from Arrowhead Stadium. The Ravens recorded a solid 26-16 road win over the Falcons last week, and the Chiefs tallied a 40-33 road win against the Raiders in their latest contest. This marks the first meeting since 2015 in a game the Chiefs won 34-14.
Ravens Defense Shines in Third Consecutive Win
The Baltimore Ravens have countered a three-game losing streak by notching three consecutive wins which included a 26-16 road win in Atlanta in their latest action to lift their road record to 3-3. Lamar Jackson got the start again in place of an injured Joe Flacco and he was productive, collecting 125 passing yards along with 75 rushing yards. The 21-year old rookie quarterback out of Louisville has now started three straight games, and he led his team to victory in all three. The mobile QB has tallied 540 passing yards and a 2:3 TD to INT ratio accompanied with 404 rushing yards. Jackson is expected to start again in this one.
Faith and guts. pic.twitter.com/xX5QfVw8oJ
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 2, 2018
The Ravens continue to play without their #1 RB Alex Collins who is out for the year. Gus Edwards rushed 21 times for 82 yards last week, and he should see plenty of carries going forward. Edwards has 379 rushing yards on the season. Baltimore’s receiving leader John Brown has seen his production dip since Lamar Jackson took over. He only has two catches for 48 yards in his last three games, and a total of 649 receiving yards on the season. The Ravens offense has scored at least 24 points in three straight games with Lamar Jackson as the signal caller.
The Baltimore defense continues to shine. They limited the Falcons to 131 total yards last week, and they are now limiting opponents to an NFL-best 281 total yards per game. The Ravens stand half a game back of the Steelers for first place in the AFC North. They are currently averaging 24.8 points, ranking them 13th in the NFL. Baltimore is holding opponents to an NFL best 17.8 points per game.
Chiefs Rebound with Road Win Over Raiders
The Kansas City Chiefs head into this one with a one-game lead ahead of the Chargers for first place in the AFC West. They rebounded from their loss to the Rams by recording a 40-33 road win against the Raiders last week. Patrick Mahomes came through with another dazzling performance, accumulating 295 passing yards with four TD’s. The 23-year old QB continues to post big numbers, throwing 10 TD passes in his last two games, and he has amassed 3923 passing yards with a sparkling 41:10 TD to INT ratio on the season.
“We knew the Oakland Raiders was going to be tough coming into their place."
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 3, 2018
The Chiefs fared well in their first game since the release of Kareem Hunt, rushing for a team total of 174 yards against the Raiders. Spencer Ware collected 47 yards on 14 carries in the win. Head coach Andy Reid will utilize the trio of Ware along with Damien Williams and Darrel Williams going forward. Tyreek Hill only made one reception for six yards last week, and he still leads the Chiefs with 1119 receiving yards on the year. Sammy Watkins (519 receiving yards) is out 4-6 weeks with a foot injury.
The Kansas City offense has now scored at least 40 points five times this season, and their passing offense stands third in the NFL. The Chiefs defense continues to have trouble against the pass. They allowed 271 passing yards against Oakland last week, and their pass defense ranks last in the NFL. Kansas City features a 5-0 home record, and they are currently averaging an NFL-leading 37 points per game. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 27.2 points, pegging them 27th overall.
The Kansas City Chiefs are:
- 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record.
- 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the AFC.
- 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.
The Baltimore Ravens are:
- 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
- 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
- over is 7-2 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Updated on Dec 9 at 12:15am EST
Update prepared by our editoral staff
Public Money / Line Movements
The Sharps are all over the Ravens in the one. The Chiefs have gone from -9 down to -6.5, despite getting 66% of the tickets.
Injury / Weather Report
No Weather Issues Are Expected
Baltimore’s Impact Injury Report
DB Tony Jefferson (61 Tackles) is doubtful
OG Alex Lewis (10 Starts) is questionable
Kansas City’s Impact Injury Report
WR Sammy Watkins (519 Yards, Three TDs) is doubtful.
TE Demetrius Harris (136 Yards, Three TDs) is questionable
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I anticipate a decisive Chiefs victory. The Chiefs offense continues to dominate, scoring a combined 91 points in their last two games alone, and they were able to score 51 points against the Rams, so I am confident they can solve the Ravens tough defense.
Furthermore, the Ravens do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace with the Chiefs powerhouse offense. Lamar Jackson is only completing 59% of his pass attempts, and he owns a 2:3 TD to INT ratio. In addition, the Ravens are only averaging 21 points on the road this season, while the Chiefs have allowed 23 or fewer points in four consecutive home games.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Full-Game Total Pick
I expect a high-scoring contest. The Chiefs have proven they can exploit any defense, and this is one of the lower totals the Chiefs have had this season. They are averaging 437 total yards per game, and the Ravens have allowed at least 34 points in two of their road games this season, plus the over is 4-0 in the Chiefs last four games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
In addition, the Ravens are averaging a solid 28 points in their last three games, and the Chiefs have squandered an average of 43.5 points in their last two games. The over is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games following an ATS loss, and I expect it to convert again in this one.
Full-Game Prop Bet
I am confident the Chiefs can solve the Ravens defense. The Chiefs have displayed an ability to produce against any defense in front of them. They scored 30 points against the Jaguars, 38 points against the Chargers, and 51 points against the Rams. Kansas City leads the NFL with an average of 4.7 touchdowns per game, and I expect them to have another productive performance.
Prediction: Chiefs Team Total: Over 28.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am staying with the Chiefs on the halftime line. The Chiefs are especially productive in the first half where they are averaging a sizzling 19.6 points compared to 17.4 points in the second half. In addition, the Ravens are only averaging 12.5 points in the first half this season.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs -4
Half-Time Total Bet
I am opting with the over on the halftime total. As mentioned, the Chiefs are more productive in the first half, and defensively they will give up points. They are allowing an average of 12.8 points in the first half. The Ravens do have some offensive momentum that they should carry into this one.
Prediction: Over 26
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I expect offense early in this one. The Chiefs lead the NFL with an average of 9.1 points in the first quarter, and the Ravens stand at 2nd in the NFL with 6.2 points in the opening quarter. Also, the Chiefs have conceded an average of 6.7 points in the first quarter over their last three games.
Prediction: First Quarter Total: Over