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The Houston Texans will host the Indianapolis Colts in a divisional showdown Sunday afternoon from NRG Stadium. The Colts had their winning streak snapped in a 6-0 road loss to the Jaguars last week, and the Texans cruised to a dominating 29-13 home win over the Browns in their previous action.
The Texans registered a 37-34 overtime road win over the Colts in week four. Andrew Luck tallied 464 passing yards with four TD’s for the Colts, and Deshaun Watson recorded 375 passing yards with two TD’s for the Texans.
Colts Winning Streak Snapped in Loss to Jaguars
The Indianapolis Colts will be eager to return to the field after a rough 6-0 road loss to the Jaguars last week to snap their five game winning streak. Andrew Luck wasn’t at his best in the defeat, completing 33 of 52 passes with one interception. Overall, the 29-year old quarterback is having a stellar season, tossing at least three TD’s in 8 of 12 games on the season, and he has racked up 3360 passing yards with a 32:12 TD to INT ratio.
Colts’ leading rusher Marlon Mack also had trouble against the Jaguars stifling defense last week, collecting only 27 rushing yards. The 22-year old RB has rushed for at least 80 yards four times this season, and he has 583 rushing yards on the year. Colts’ #1 receiver T.Y. Hilton could play a big role in this contest. He accumulated 115 receiving yards against the Texans in week four, and he now has 787 receiving yards on the season. The Colts offense was red-hot prior to their loss to Jacksonville, and they rank ninth in the NFL with an average of 378 total yards per game.
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) December 2, 2018
The Indianapolis defense is playing well recently. They limited the Jaguars to only 211 total yards last week, and their rush defense has been a strength as they are holding opponents to 104 rushing yards per game. Indianapolis is scoring an average of 27.1 points, good for eighth in the NFL. They are allowing an average of 23.2 points, positioning them 15th in the NFL. The Colts stand at 2-4 on the road this season.
Texans Cruise to Ninth Consecutive Victory
The Houston Texans are the hottest team in the NFL. They have responded from an 0-3 start by winning nine consecutive games to catapult into first place in the AFC South, and they now hold a three-game lead ahead of the Colts for the top spot in the division. They are coming off a convincing 29-13 home win over the Browns last week. Deshaun Watson tallied 224 passing yards with one TD in the victory. The 23-year old QB has gone two straight games without tossing an interception, and he has collected 3031 passing yards with a 21:9 TD to INT ratio on the season. Texans’ rushing leader Lamar Miller is red-hot, rushing for a total of 265 yards in his last two games, and he now has 876 rushing yards on the year.
Similar to T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins will play a large factor in this one. He registered 169 receiving yards on 10 receptions against the Colts in week four, and he has 1115 receiving yards on the year.
Watson: "This is a great opportunity, great win as a team for us and continue to roll.” pic.twitter.com/phQcORv5np
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 3, 2018
The Houston offense has now scored a combined 63 points in their last two games led by a potent running game. The Texans defense continues to shine. They limited Tennessee to 17 points in week 12, followed by only 13 points to the Browns last week. Houston will give up yards in the air, while their rush defense stands at fifth in the NFL. The Texans are currently averaging 25.2 points, ranking them 12th in the NFL. They are holding opponents to 19.6 points, good for third overall. Houston owns a 5-1 home record.
The Houston Texans are:
- 1-7 ATS in their last 8 December games.
- 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game.
- 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after recording more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.
The Indianapolis Colts are:
- 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Houston.
- 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Texans overall.
- 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Updated on Dec 9 at 12:30am EST
Update prepared by our editoral staff
Public Money / Line Movements
The Sharps seem to be on the side of the Colts in this one. Houston has gone from -4.5 down to -4, despite getting 57% of the bets. THe probably are expecting Indy to bounce back from a horrible showing last week.
Injury / Weather Report
Indianapolis’ Impact Injury Report
TE Mo Alie-Cox (112 Yards, Two TDs), WR Dontrelle Inman (191 Yards), and Center Ryan Kelly (10 Starts) are all out.
DT Ryan Kelly (29 Tackles, Six Sacks), WR T.Y. Hilton (787 Yards, Six TDs), and DT Margus Hunt (21 Tackles, Four Sacks).
Houston’s Impact Injury Report
OG Zach Fulton (10 Starts) is out.
WR Keke Coutee (287 Yards) and DB Johnathan Joseph (45 Tackles) are both questionable
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking the points with the Colts in this one. The Colts have won five out of their last six games, and they should rebound with a solid performance in this one. The Colts feature a strong passing offense that is averaging 271 passing yards per game, and the Texans pass defense is below average at 18th in the NFL with an average of 250 passing yards against.
Furthermore, I expect the Colts to neutralize the Texans running game. The Colts features a strong rush defense that is holding opponents to 104 rushing yards per game, and the Texans generate a good portion of their offense on the ground with a rushing offense that ranks third in the NFL.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts
Full-Game Total Pick
I am opting with the under in this contest. The Colts are playing outstanding defense, allowing an average of only 13.3 points in their last three games, and the under has now converted in their last three games overall. Also, the under is 6-0 in the Colts’ last six games against a team with a winning record.
The Texans continue to play outstanding defense, holding their opponents to 17 or fewer points in three out of their last four games. The under is 4-0 in their last four games after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game, and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Full-Game Prop Bet
I am confident the Colts can have a productive afternoon on offense. The Colts accumulated 478 total yards in their 37-34 loss to the Texans earlier this season, and Andrew Luck was able to register four touchdown passes. Also, Houston just surrendered 397 passing yards to Baker Mayfield and the Browns last week, giving me confidence Andrew Luck can have a big game.
Prediction: Colts Team Total: Over 22.5
Half-Time Side Pick
The Texans on the halftime line is worth a look. The Texans are playing stifling defense in the first half, holding opponents to only 5.7 points over their last three games. Also, Houston is averaging a sizzling 21.3 points in the first half over their last three games. The Texans slow down in the second half where they are only averaging 10.5 points on the season.
Prediction: Houston Texans -3
Half-Time Total Bet
I am staying with the under on the halftime total. The Colts are only conceding an average of 6.7 points in the first half over their last three games. Also, the Texans are only allowing an average of 7.7 points in the first half on their home field this season.
Prediction: Under 24.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am going with the Texans to score first. Houston has been no stranger to early points as they are averaging nine points in the opening quarter over their last three games. In addition, the Colts are only averaging 4.7 points in the first quarter in their last three games.
Prediction: Texans to Score First -140