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In-Depth Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Giants vs. Eagles Prediction

Monday, December 9, 2019 at 8:15pm EST
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

This article covers a past game!

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In-depth Coverage

This is an in-depth analysis of this game, covering every possible detail and angle. Use the table of contents to navigate between each section, or just jump on in!

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Table of Contents

Last Updated: Monday, December 9, 2019 at 11:59am EST

Introduction

Monday Night Football and a pair of teams from the NFC East will square off as the New York Giants pay a visit to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA to rumble with the Philadelphia Eagles. This is the first meeting between these teams this year. The Eagles won both meetings last year and the last five in this series overall.

New York Giants Review

The New York Giants have had a miserable season as many expected. They did make the change at QB from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones and it gave them a shot in the arm early on. Still, Jones doesn't have a ton of talent around him and the Giants have lost their last eight games in a row. He does have Saquon Barkley but he has not been nearly as good as last year, plus Jones has very little talent at the wide receiver position and a defense that has more holes than Swiss cheese. The Giants were just crushed by the Packers at home by a score of 31-13. Can Giants end their losing skid and at the same time deal a serious blow to Philadelphia's playoff chances? We shall see.

Philadelphia Eagles Review

The Philadelphia Eagles are ready had a serious blow dealt to them as they come in off a horrible 37-31 loss to the pitiful Miami Dolphins on the road. The Eagles are not out of the playoff race, but they had a shot of taking a one-game lead over the Cowboys in the NFC East with a win. The Eagles choked this past Sunday. There is no other word for what happened but the good news is that Philly is just one game behind Dallas in the division with four games to go plus the Eagles still have a home game against Dallas down the road.  Can Philly keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Giants? You'll have to read on to find out.

The Running Game

New York Giants Running Offense
vs. Philadelphia Eagles Running Defense

New York Giants Running Offense

This is a bit of an oddity. Last year, Saquon Barkley had a strong season that saw him rumble for 1,307 yards and 11 TDs in his rookie season. He was 2nd in the league in rushing a season ago and the Giants were 24th in the league in rushing. This year, Barkley has struggled as he has run for just 544 yards and yet the Giants have moved up one spot in the league rushing rankings to 23rd. We must note that they are about eight yards per game rushing behind last year, but still, it is interesting to see that they have slipped in the rankings, despite Barkley having the far better season last year. Injuries to Barkley, offensive line woes and defenses ganging up on him have probably contributed to his lack of production.

The Giants do need their ground game to come alive or it will continue to be a long finish to the season for their rookie quarterback, who I will get to in a few minutes. The bottom line is that the Giants have struggled to run the ball and now they have to face one of the best run defenses in the league. Second on the team in rushing is QB Daniel Jones, who has 241 yards while 3rd is Wayne Gallman Jr. with 110. Gallman, Barkley, and Jones all have just two rushing TDs each.   

Philadelphia Eagles Run Defense

The Eagles have had one of the best run defenses in the league all year and they enter this game at 4th in yards per game allowed at 91.0 ypg. That number has a shot to go down as the Giants have run for just 75.7 ypg over their last three games. We do note that teams don’t run a lot against the Eagles and the Giants are 28th in the league in rushing attempts per game. The Eagles have allowed 102 yards per game on the ground in their last three games, so they have been a bit worse at stopping the run of late, but still, this is a very solid unit overall. 

Philadelphia will look to stop the run in this one as it will then put pressure on Eli Manning to make plays. The Eagles have a solid defensive line and they will be facing a weak New York offensive line. The Eagles have allowed just 100.2 ypg on the ground at home and at 4.1 yards per pop.

Stats

New York’s Rushing Stats

  • 28th in rushing attempts per game (21.8)
  • 23rd in rushing yards per game (95.5)
  • 17th in yards per attempt (4.4)
  • 21st in rushing first downs per game (5.2)

Philadelphia’ Run Defense Stats

  • 6th in run plays per game against (22.8)
  • 4th in rushing yards allowed per game (91.0)
  • 8th in opposing yards per attempt (4.0)
  • 6th in rushing first downs per game against (4.7)

Who has the Edge?

I have to give the Eagles a solid edge in this one. Saquon Barkley has not been the beast that he was a year ago and the Giants have struggled to tun the ball so far. They are 23rd in the league in rushing and have been even worse of late, averaging just 75.7 ypg on 3.5 yards per attempt over their last three games. They will now be facing a Philadelphia defense that comes in ranked 4th in the league against the run. The Eagles have allowed just 100.2 ypg at home and just 91.0 ypg overall and it is hard to see the Giants coming all that close to their season average of 95.5 ypg in this game. 

Advantage: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles Running Offense
vs. New York Giants Running Defense

Philadelphia Eagles Running Offense

The Eagles have been above average when it comes to running the ball this year. They enter this game ranked 13th in the league in rushing but will be facing a hot Gants’ run defense that has allowed just 73.3 ypg over their last three games and just 91.2 ypg on the road. The Eagles will have a test in this one but they have run for 111.2 ypg on the ground at home for the year. The Eagles could have a solid game in this one and they may look for their passing game to set up the run. We shall see.

Leading the team in rushing has been Jordan Howard with 525 yards but he is listed as doubtful for this game, plus they are without Darren Sproles for the rest of the year. The onus of the running game will now fall on the legs of rookie Miles Sanders, who is second on the year with 520 yards rushing but he has just one TD. Howard has six on the year. Carson Wentz is 3rd with 188 yards. The injuries have caught up to them some of late as the Eagles have averaged just 93.0 ypg on the ground over their last three games.  

New York Giants Run Defense

The Giants have been very solid against the run of late as they have allowed just 73.3 ypg on the ground over their last three games and they have allowed just 92.0 ypg on the ground on the road so far. Despite those numbers, the giants come in ranked 21st in the league against the run but they are also 6th in yards per attempt at 3.9. The Giants have a shot at keeping their solid run defense going as the Eagles are dealing with injuries to their RB corps and they have struggled to run the ball of late. 

Now, we have to be cautioned a bit like New York’s last three opponents have been against the Packers, Bears, and Jets. Those teams have struggled to run the ball this year. Still, if the Giants can stop the run here, then it will help their secondary which has not been great this year. The Eagles have rushed for just 93.0 ypg on the ground over their last three games. 

  

Stats

Philadelphia’s Rushing Stats

  • 7th in rushing attempts per game (27.8)
  • 13th in rushing yards per game (118.8)
  • 18th in yards per attempt (4.3)
  • 12th in rushing first downs per game (6.1)

New York’s Run Defense Stats

  • 29th in run plays per game against (29.6)
  • 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (114.2)
  • 6th in opposing yards per attempt (3.9)
  • 13th in rushing first downs per game against (5.7)

Who has the Edge?

I’m going have to give the Giants a slight edge in this one. They have been hot against the run of late and very good on the road as they have allowed just 92.0 ypg on the ground away from home. This run defense will have a decent showing against a Philadelphia team that has struggled to run the ball of late and is dealing with injuries to its running back corps. The Eagles are missing Sproles, Howard and they have been without Corey Clement all year. Miles Sanders has the talent and is 2nd on the team in rushing but he is still a rookie and cannot do this alone. Give the edge to the Giants here.

Advantage: New York Giants

The Passing Game

New York Giants Passing Offense
vs. Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense

New York Giants Passing Offense

The Giants turned to Daniel Jones over Eli Manning early in the year and after a few exciting moments after the move, he has looked like the rookie QB that he is. Jones has hit just 61.6% of his passes for 2374 yards with 18 TDs and 11 INTs on the year. He has a passer rating of 84, which is 6th best among rookie QBs. Jones is coming off of a bad game against the Packers in which he threw for 240 yards with one TD and three INTs but in his previous four games, he had thrown for 990 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. However, due to an ankle injury, the Giants are going back to veteran Eli Manning at quarterback. Manning has 556 yards passing and two TDS with two picks in two games this season.

Leading the team in receiving has been Darius Slayton who has 505 yards on 37 receptions while 2nd is Evan Ingram, who has 467 yards on 44 receptions and Golden Tate is 3rd with 450 yards on 36 receptions. The Giants have dealt with injuries to their WR corps as Tate has missed five games while Sterling Sheppard (322 yards) has missed six games. Tate is listed as probable for this one and Sheppard is listed as questionable. Jones will need both to play in this game.   

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense

The Philadelphia Eagles had been playing better against the pass of late but that came to an end in their last game. The Eagles lost that game to the Dolphins on the road by a score of 37-31 and they allowed 351 yards passing and four TDs while picking off just one pass in the loss. This is on the heels of Philadelphia allowing just 163.8 ypg through the air over their previous four games. The Eagles are 18th in the league against the pass overall and if they are not careful, they could have a rough game as Jones has shown glimpses of brilliance at times this year. 

Philly has allowed 294.7 ypg passing here at home for the year while the Giants have averaged 245.7 ypg through the air on the road. The Eagles need to limit the big plays as they are 24th in yards per completion and that could be an issue for them as both Tate and Sheppard could be back for this game. Leading the team in sacks has been Brandon Graham with 7.5 while Rodney McLeod, Nathan Gerry, and Ronald Darby each have two INTs to lead the team. Darby also leads the team in passes defended with 10.   

Stats

New York’s Passing Stats

  • 5th in pass attempts per game (38.2)
  • 20th in passing yards per game (221.2)
  • 24th in completion percentage (61.87)
  • 30th in yards per pass attempt (5.8)
  • 29th in yards per pass completion (9.3)
  • 23rd in passer rating (83.0)

Philadelphia’s Pass Defense Stats

  • 19th in pass attempts against per game (35.2)
  • 18th in passing yards per game allowed (241.7)
  • 8tht in completion percentage allowed (61.85)
  • 20th in yards per pass attempt (6.9)
  • 24th in yards per pass completion (11.1)
  • 12th in sacks per game (2.8)
  • 19th in passer rating allowed (91.8)

Who has the Edge?

I will give this category slightly to the Giants. The Eagles had a horrendous game against the pass in their last game and while they will look to have a better showing, it just won’t happen here. Daniel Jones has shown that he has the tools to be an NFL QB and he will have Golden Tate back for this one while Sterling Shepard could also be available. However, Jones has a sprained ankle and could miss 2-4 weeks according to Ian Rappaport.  That means a slower and less mobile Manning will look to possibly steal a road win.

The Eagles just allowed 351 yards passing to a Miami team that doesn’t have a good passing game and they have allowed 294.7 ypg through the air at home. I do not count this as a huge edge by the Giants as Jones can still be erratic, but they do have an edge in this category.     

Advantage: New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense
vs. New York Giants Passing Defense

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense

The Eagles have been below average in the passing game but they may have to look for it to have a good showing in this one as the running game has been weakened with all the injuries. They are taking on a weak New York pass defense, so the Eagles could have a good game in this one. Carson Wentz has been the guy all year and he has stayed healthy. That is a plus for the Eagles, especially since they do not have Nick Foles as an insurance policy this year. 

Wentz has thrown for 2840 yards with 20 TDs and just seven INTs on the year while posting a QBR of 90.0. Philadelphia was expected to have a passing game that would rank among the best in the league this year, but that has never panned out, thanks to injuries. The Eagles lost DeSean Jackson early in the season and Alshon Jeffrey has missed a few games this year. Jeffrey is playing this week but Nelson Agholor is listed as questionable. TE Zach Ertz leads the team in receiving with 736 yards while Jeffrey is 2nd with 490 and Agholor is 3rd with 363. We also note that Miles Sanders is 4th with 359 yards but is listed as doubtful for this one.  

New York Giants Passing Defense

The New York pass defense has not been that good this year as they come in ranked 24th in yards allowed, 31st in yards per attempt and 27th in yards per completion. They are also 28th in passer rating allowed. This could be the defense that the Eagles need to face to get their passing game back on track, especially since the Giants have allowed 312.8 ypg through the air on the road so far. Teams have completed 69.5% of their passes against Giants when New York takes to the road, but we do note that the Eagles have completed just 62.5 % of their passes for 229.8 ypg at home for the year. 

The secondary could be under fire all game in this one, especially if the Eagles cannot run the ball. New York’s secondary could be the key to them winning the game. Getting pressure on the QB has been an issue for them and that is not good as Wentz has the ability to sit back there and pick this secondary apart. Leading the team in sacks has been Markus Golden, who has 7.5 while Janoris Jenkins leads the team in INTs with four and passes defended with 14.     

Stats

Philadelphia’s Passing Stats

  • 13th in pass attempts per game (36.7)
  • 18th in passing yards per game (223.6)
  • 22st in completion percentage (62.27)
  • 23rd in yards per pass attempt (6.1)
  • 24th in yards per pass completion (9.8)
  • 15th in passer rating (88.7)

New York’s Pass Defense Stats

  • 6th in pass attempts against (32.2)
  • 24th in passing yards per game allowed (258.6)
  • 27th in completion percentage allowed (67.44)
  • 31st in yards per pass attempt (8.0)
  • 27th in yards per pass completion (11.9)
  • 25th in sacks per game (2.2)
  • 28th in passer rating allowed (101.7)

Who has the Edge?

The Eagles are a bit healthier in the passing game and the Giants have not defended the pass well on the road at all. New York has allowed 312.8 ypg through the air on the road and  Carson Wentz is more than capable of reaching that nark, especially with a healthy Alshon Jeffrey back on the field. The Eagles will look to throw the ball a bit more as they have been hit hard with injuries in the running game, plus it has not been that easy to run against the Giants of late. I cannot see the Giants slowing down the Eagles passing game in this one.    

Advantage: Philadelphia Eagles

Intangibles

New York Giants

The Giants enter this game at 1-5 on the road for the year and they have averaged 21.7 ppg and have allowed 30.8 ppg in those games. New York is 25th in total offense at 316.7 ypg and 25th in scoring at 19.2 ppg. They are 22nd in offensive yards per points 16.5 and 25th in yards per play at 5.0, plus 18th in third-down conversion percentage at 37.11%. Let’s look at the kicking. The Giants are 9th in kick return average at 22.9 and 1st in punt return average at 11.9, plus they are 10th in net punting at 46.0 and 25th in FG% at 71%.

On defense, the Giants are 26th in total yards allowed at 372.8 ypg and 29th in scoring defense at 28.2 ppg. New York has a defensive yards per point average of 13.2, which is 30th in the league and 22nd in yards per play at 5.8. Lastly, the Giants are 5th in penalties per game at 5.9 and 31st in turnover margin per game at -1.2.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles enter this game at 3-3 here at home for the year and they have averaged 21.3 ppg and have allowed 29.3 ppg in those games. Philadelphia is 20th in total offense at 342.3 ypg and 16th in scoring at 22.8 ppg. They are 13th in offensive yards per points 15.0 and 24th in yards per play at 5.1, plus 6th in third-down conversion percentage at 45.40%. Let’s look at the kicking. The Eagles are 15th in kick return average at 22.1 and 20th in punt return average at 6.3, plus they are 5th in net punting at 46.9 and 3rd in FG% at 94%.

On defense, the Eagles are 14th in total yards allowed at 332.7 ypg and 20th in scoring defense at 23.7 ppg. Philadelphia has a defensive yards per point average of 14.1, which is 25th in the league and 17th in yards per play at 5.5. Lastly, the Eagles are 9th in penalties per game at 6.5 and 25th in turnover margin per game at -0.4. 

Who has the Edge?

I have this as a favor in the Eagles camp. Philadelphia has better yards per point numbers and they have a huge edge in the kicking game. The Giants have an edge in the return game and they have committed fewer penalties, but the Eagles have an edge in the turnover department and they are far better on 3rd downs. I also give the Eagles an edge in coaching and they are at home where they have been mediocre while the Giants have struggled on the road. Give the Eagles the intangibles edge.

Advantage: Philadelphia Eagles

Final Outlook

The Eagles are at 5-7 on the year but they are just one game out of first place in the NFC East, thanks to the recent struggles of the Cowboys. This is a game that the Eagles cannot afford to lose. The Giants have lost their last eight games in a row and their defense has been a mess of late, allowing 30.3 ppg during their losing streak. They have also allowed 30.8 ppg on the road while scoring just 21.7 ppg away from home so far. Philadelphia has been inconsistent on offense at times but their passing game is a little healthier and they are facing a New York defense that has allowed 312.8 ypg through the air on the road. 

The Giants have stopped the run well and the eagles are banged up at the running back position, which means they will look to pass even more and going up against Giants’ weak secondary is a plus. The Eagles have not been great on defense at home but they will make just enough stops to win this game by at least 12 points. 

Trends Are Courtesy Of Covers.com

  • The Giants are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
  • The Giants 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game

  • The Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Monday games

   

Latest Updates, Injury Reports, and Line Movements

It appears as the Giants are going back to Eli Manning for this game. Manning has thrown for 556 yards with two TSDs and two INTs in two games played this year. Even though Manning is starting, I am sticking with the My picks in this game.

The Eagles have gone from -8 to -9.5 despite the fact that the Giants have grabbed 55% of the bets. The Sharps are clearly on the side of the Eagles in this one.

New York's Injury Report

Out: DB Corey Ballentine, DB Jabrill Peppers, QB Daniel Jones, LB Chris Peace, TE Evan Engram, TE Rhett Ellison

Philadelphia's Injury Report

Questionable: RB Jordan Howard, DE Derek Barnett, and WR Nelson Agholor

Out: Kamu Grugier-Hill

Prediction: Philadelphia -9.5

Second Opinion on this pick from StatSalt.com

Additional Insiders' Best Bets

Full-game Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I will be going with the Over in this one. The Defense has not been great for both teams, especially against the pass. This should be an aerial shootout between a couple of QBs that have shown they can put up solid numbers at times. The Giants have allowed 30.3 ppg over their last eight games and 30.8 ppg on the road. The Eagles just allowed 37 points to the Dolphins and they have allowed 29.3 ppg here at home for the year. Philadelphia has allowed 294.7 ypg through the air here at home while the Giants have allowed 312.8 ypg through the air on the road. The Run defense for the Eagles has been strong all season while the Giants have stepped up to stop the run very well of late. These teams will have to throw the ball if they home to move it in this one. Lastly, the Over is 6-1 the last seven games between these teams and those games have averaged 52.4 ppg. Take the Over on Monday night.   

Trends Are Courtesy Of Covers.com

  • The Over is 7-1 in New York’s last 8 road games
  • The Over is 7-2 in New York’s last 9 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0
  • The Over is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 games in December

  • The Over is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last 5 games in December
  • The Over is 9-3 in Philadelphia’s last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game
  • The Over is 35-17 in Philadelphia’s last 52 games following a straight-up loss

Prediction: Over 46

Full-game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

This one should be fairly easy. The Eagles have been inconsistent at times on offense but the Giants have been downright bad of defense of late. New York has allowed 30.3 ppg over their last eight games and 30.8 ppg on the road. Philly is a bit healthier on offense and I will look for them to put up at least 31 points in this one.

Prediction: Philadelphia Team Total Over 27.5

Half-time Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I will look for the Eagles to grab the early lead at the break in this one and it should be around 10 points. Eli Manning is back on the field and he was not great in his two games earlier in the year and New York has been outscored 17.3 ppg to 10.7 ppg in the first half on the road. The Eagles need this game and they will look to put the Giants away early.

Prediction: Philadelphia -6 (First Half)

Half-time Total Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I love the Over for the whole game and it will start with plenty of scoring in the first half. I only need two numbers to make my case for this pick. The Giants have allowed 17.3 ppg in the first half on the road while the Eagles have allowed 17.0 ppg in the first half at home. Take the Over in the first 30 minutes of this one.

Prediction: Over 22.5 (First Half)
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.