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New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills,
9-10-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#453 New York
Jets
#454 Buffalo
Bills

Sunday, September 10, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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New York Jets (0-0 SU, 0-0-0 PS, 0-0-0 O/U) vs Buffalo Bills (0-0 SU, 0-0-0 PS, 0-0-0 O/U)

When: 1:00 PM EDT, Sunday, September 10, 2017

Where: New Era Field in Orchard Park, New York

Lines: Buffalo -6.5

Total: 41

The first Sunday of the new NFL season kicks off with a battle of AFC East foes as the New York Jets travel to New Era Field in Old Orchard New York to rumble with the Buffalo Bills. The Jets could be in for a long year after going just 5-11 last year, while the Bills are hoping that new head coach Sean McDermott can lead them to the postseason for the first time since 1999. The Jets won both meetings with the Bills last year.

This Will Be A Long Year For The Jets

The New York Jets were just 5-11 last year and they could be a bit worse this year as they didn’t have a great draft and still don’t have a quarterback. The offense has been an issue for this team for years and this year it will be no different, They have cut ties with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith and have also lost RB CJ Spiller and WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. They did take a couple of WRs in the draft, but losses far outweigh the gains and even if their new receivers were of the caliber of Marshall and Decker, they still don’t have a QB to get them the ball as Josh McCown just hasn’t been a good QB in his career. They will rely on their running game which is led by Bilal Powell, who ran for 722 yards last year. They averaged just 17.2 ppg, which was 30th in the league last year.

The defense had mixed results last year as they allowed just 424.4 ypg, which was 11th in the league, but they also allowed 254.6 ppg, which was 28th in the league. The reason for that was the fact that the offense put their defense in very bad field positions for much of the year. The offense won’t be a whole lot better this year, so the defense will really have to bow up and they do have a solid defense. Still, that defense will not lead them to the postseason or even a winning record as they really need more from their offense and they won’t get that with just a running game. I look for the Jets to struggle to get to four wins this year, but remember that they had just five wins last year and two of them came against the Bills.

Bills Are Looking To End Playoff Drought

The Bills have not been to the postseason since 1999 and they will look to break that drought this year. The Rex Ryan era is over and in steps Sean McDermott, who has been tagged with the responsibility of turning around their fortunes. The Bills will be led by their defense this year and it is expected to be a good one. In the preseason, they allowed just 16.8 ppg, while last year they were 16th in the league in points allowed, giving up 23.6 ppg. They did upgrade their defense with the addition of DBs Micah Hyde from Green Bay and Shareece Wright from Baltimore, plus 1st round pick DB Tre’Davious White. This has a chance to be one of the best secondaries in the league. Fortunately for them in this one, an average secondary can stop the Jets passing game.    

On offense, the Bills have some work to do. They averaged just 15.5 ppg in the preseason as the offense really struggled to score. The Bills do have QB Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy, but still, the cupboard is bare when it comes to other solid skill players. They did take WR Zay Jones with their 2nd pick and are hoping that he will be one of their go to guys in the passing game. The offense should be a bit better than last year, especially if Jones emerges as a strong target. The running game is very good and the defense will be improved over last year, but still, I see them having to wait at least another year to break their postseason drought.

Trends

New York is:

  • The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings

Buffalo is:

  • 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC
  • 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. the AFC East

The Jets are not going to be a very good team this year, while the Bills could be in the mix for a wildcard berth the whole season long. The Bills will have an improved offense, but how much remains to be seen. They will be led by their defense this year and having a good defense when going up against the Jets is a good thing. Still, the Bills’ offense will be facing a Jets’ defense that has a chance at being very solid this year. Buffalo is not a team that will blow many out this year and for that I feel that the Jets have a good shot at covering one of the biggest spreads on the board this week. This one will come down to the wire.

Pick: New York +6.5

The New York Jets will be in for a long year this year, but the one thing that does give them a chance to win games will be their defense as they just won’t get a ton from their offense. The Bills will also be led by their defense this year, while their offense will struggle in most games. Both teams will look to run and that will keep the clock moving, plus we note that the Under is 4-1 the last five games in this series and the Under is 8-3 in New York’s last 11 games on the road overall. I say to take the Under in this game.  

Pick: Under 41

Confidence: 4

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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