Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#263 Los Angeles Chargers -1 vs.
#264 Detroit Lions 47
Sunday, September 15, 2019 at 1:00pm EDT
Ford Field, Detroit
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#263 Los Angeles
#264 Detroit
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The Los Angeles Chargers will travel to Ford Field in Week 2 for a matchup against the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.

Both teams went needed overtime to decide their Week 1 contests. The Chargers escaped a complete meltdown versus the resilient Indianapolis Colts, winning in overtime 30-24. The Lions, meanwhile, weren’t as fortunate. Detroit opened the season with an ugly 27-27 tie versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1 that has everyone [including me] pointing the finger at head coach Matt Patricia. Can Detroit bounce back with an upset over the Chargers in their home opener at Ford Field on Sunday?

“You probably don’t finally know the answers until next Sunday, I’d say,” Patricia said Wednesday. “I think you can go either way with it and write it however you want, but it is something that I do try to take observation of as we learn about this year’s team as we go forward.”

The Lions blew a 17-0 lead and were unable to put away rookie Kyler Murray and the Cardinals, resulting in a disappointing Week 1 tie. Leading 24-6 in the fourth quarter, Detroit’s defense folded down the stretch, allowing two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the final six minutes. Head coach Matt Patricia has already come under fire from the local media, especially after Murray called the defense “tired” after the game. Running back Kerryon Johnson rushed for just 49 yards on 16 attempts, as the entire offense stalled when it mattered most. Matthew Stafford finished with 385 yards and three touchdowns, while highly-criticized first-round pick T.J. Hockenson flashed potential in his first NFL game, leading the team with six catches for 131 yards and a touchdown.

According to NFL.com, holdout running back Melvin Gordon plans to report to the team between Weeks 6 and 8 this season. Gordon will be playing on a $5.6 million fifth-year option and must report by Week 10 to have this season count and qualify for free agency next year. The news broke just before the Chargers’ Week 1 contest versus the Colts, but Gordon might want to consider coming back earlier if he wants to cement his role as the lead dog in the backfield. Backup and change-of-pace back Austin Ekeler finished with 12 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown to go along with six catches for 96 yards and two more scores, including the game-winner in overtime to help Los Angeles escape with a win. Meanwhile, rookie Justin Jackson looked explosive, taking his six carries for 57 yards, proving he needs to be a part of running back rotation moving forward. Together, they combined for 215 total yards (115 rushing yards, 100 receiving) 25 touches, while averaging a healthy 6.4 yards per carry.

Chargers dealing with injuries heading into Week 2

The Chargers got some more bad news earlier this week, when it was announced that tight end Hunter Henry suffered a left knee fracture. According to a statement made Wednesday, Henry does not have a timetable for his return after suffering a tibia plateau fracture to his left knee, but the team believes he will be out about a month — a shorter timeline than if he were placed on IR. He had four receptions for 60 yards in last week’s overtime win versus the Colts. The team brought in three tight ends for workouts earlier this week, including former Oakland Raiders’ tight end Luke Wilson.

Henry’s absence will certainly hurt the Chargers’ offense, which is already dealing with the loss of receiver Mike Williams. Williams also sustained a knee injury last week, finishing with two catches for 29 yards before leaving the game. Williams is “week-to-week” with a sore knee and his status for Sunday’s contest remains in doubt. Head coach Anthony Lynn told reporters on Wednesday that he was “absolutely” concerned about Williams’ knee and the team added receiver Anthony Johnson to the practice squad to improve their depth at the position.

Tight ends Virgil Green and Sean Culkin will need to step up in Henry’s absence.

“In the tight end room, we’ve got to be one of the smartest guys on offense, next to the quarterback,” Green said. “So we take a lot of pride in our preparation and making sure if something like this does happen, the next man up is thrown in there and nothing drops off.

“Obviously, Hunter is a hell of a player and changes our vibe because he brings a lot of swag to our group. He definitely will be missed. My role each week is to be an enforcer — that’s how I made it in the league. There’s nothing pretty to it, I’m a grinder. But I think our coaches do a great job of putting us in positions to look good.”

If Williams is unable to go, expect more targets for Travis Benjamin and Dontrelle Inman, who have both contributed in the past. Inman had a career-high 810 yards and four touchdowns as a member of the Chargers in 2016, while Benjamin had 677 yards and four scores that same season.

Hockenson, Amendola bright spots in Lions’ Week 1 tie

Detroit will have to find a way to neutralize Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram if they want to protect quarterback Matthew Stafford on Sunday. Stafford finished with some gaudy numbers in Week 1, throwing for 385 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the 27-27 tie versus the Cardinals. However, he will have to improve in clutch situations. He went 3-of-10 for only 29 yards in the last two minutes of the first and second half and he completed just 1-of-4 passes for 12 yards with the game within seven points in the fourth quarter. Stafford will be making his 130th consecutive start on Sunday, which is second only to his counterpart in this game — Phillip Rivers.

If there was one bright spot last week, it was the performance of newcomers T.J. Hockenson and veteran Danny Amendola. Hockenson flashed his Gronk-like potential in Week 1, catching six passes for a team-high 131 yards and a touchdown on the day. He’s already established himself as a go-to target and a security blanket for Stafford, who has had trouble connecting with his tight ends in the past. Hockenson’s 131 yards were the most in a debut by a rookie tight end in NFL history, besting the 123-yard performance by Monty Stickles in 1960, and they marked the most by a Lions’ tight end since the end of the 2011 season. Meanwhile, Amendola caught 7 of his 13 targets for 104 yards and a score, marking his first 100-yard performance since the 2017 season.

Tying the Arizona Cardinals on the road isn’t a good thing, but it’s worse when you blow an 18-point fourth-quarter lead. Now the Lions and Stafford have to turn the page and take on a very good, though banged-up Chargers squad.

“You just start watching tape on the other team,” Stafford said Wednesday. “You can’t dwell on it, whether it was a great win and great performance, or a blowout loss and a terrible performance.

“If you do this a long time you understand that. If you don’t understand that you probably don’t do this for a long time. It’s part of what is ingrained in us. We move forward. You have to. You watch the tape, the other team grabs your attention, and you just get lost in trying to prepare for that team.”

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The Lions have lost seven of the last eight matchups in this series, but they have a chance to reverse those struggles against a banged up Chargers’ team. With that being said, I’m not buying it. The Chargers have covered the spread in five of the last six meetings and they are only laying 2.5-points on the road against a Lions’ team that suffered a disappointing tie [loss] after blowing a 17-0 lead versus the Cardinals last week. Lions’ head coach Matt Patricia is under a lot of fire right now, making this nearly a must-win game for the Lions. San Diego almost blew a lead of their own against the Colts, but bounced back with a game-winning touchdown in overtime. The Chargers will likely be without Hunter Henry and Mike Williams on offense, but they still have plenty of playmakers on that side of the ball. The real difference in this game is going to come on the defensive side of the ball, where the Chargers own two of the best pass rushers in the NFL. Detroit’s ground game stalled last week and if they are forced to rely on their aerial attack, it could be another long day for Matthew Stafford and co. Take the Chargers to cover the spread at Ford Field on Sunday. 

Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

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These two teams are only projected for 47.5 points this week, which seems fairly low considering how poorly both teams played last week. The Chargers gave up 174 yards to Marlon Mack on the ground and 24 points to the Jacoby Brissett-led Colts. Meanwhile, the Lions made rookie Kyler Murray look like a superstar in the second half of their Week 1 contest. While this has all the makings of a grind-it-out game, especially with the Chargers dealing with so many injuries on offense, I can see this one turning into a high-scoring affair. Take this game to go over the projected total in Detroit on Sunday.

Prediction: Over 47.5
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.