Tennessee Titans (0-1; 0-1 ATS; 0-1 O/U) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U)
NFL: Sunday, September 17, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Tennessee -1.5
The Jacksonville Jaguars will collide with the Tennessee Titans in a divisional battle Sunday afternoon from EverBank Field. The Titans were defeated 26-16 by the Raiders last week, and the Jaguars are coming off a terrific 29-7 road win over the Texans. The Jaguars won the first meeting last season 38-17, and the Titans answered with a 36-22 home win in the second matchup.
Mariota, Murray Can’t Crack Raiders Defense
The Tennessee Titans did not score a touchdown in the final three quarters in their 26-16 home loss to the Raiders last week. Marcus Mariota was mediocre at best, completing 25 of 41 passes for 256 yards with zero touchdowns. The 23-year old quarterback is expected to take the Titans to the next level this season after posting a 19:10 TD to INT ratio last season. DeMarco Murray was not able to get in a groove, rushing for only 44 yards on 12 carries. The 29-year old running back tallied 1287 rushing yards in a big 2016 season. Delanie Walker was solid, making seven catches for 76 yards. The 33-year old tight end was able to get open with ease in week one but will be facing a tougher matchup against the Jaguars. Fifth overall draft pick Corey Davis had a promising debut, racking up 71 receiving yards on nine targets. The 6-foot-3 receiver is expected to make an immediate impact.
The Titans defense had their hands full with Derek Carr last week and conceded 359 total yards. Derick Morgan made one of two sacks on the afternoon and also made two tackles for a loss. The 28-year old linebacker made nine sacks last season. The Tennessee defense will have an easier matchup in the contest, however, they will need to stop Fournette.
Fournette Dazzles in Debut in Jaguars Victory
The Jacksonville Jaguars played stifling defense and came away with a surprising 29-7 road win over the Houston Texans last week. Blake Bortles was mediocre, connecting on only 11 of his 21 passes for 125 yards with one touchdown. The 25-year old quarterback did not have a strong preseason but still does have potential. The big star offensively in the win was the performance of rookie Leonard Fournette who rushed for 100 yards on 26 carries in his first NFL regular season game. The 22-year old running back was the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft and is poised for a huge rookie season. Allen Hurns led the way in the air, bringing in three catches for 42 yards. The 25-year old receiver collected 477 receiving yards last season and could surpass 1000 yards similar to his 2015 season. Unfortunately for the Jaguars Allen Robinson went down with a knee injury and is expected to miss a significant amount of time.
The Jaguars defense was tremendous last week, holding the Texans to only 203 total yards and made a whopping ten sacks. Calais Campbell was in beast mode, making four of the sacks and two tackles for a loss. Campbell made eight sacks with the Cardinals last season. The Jaguars defense is a strength which was on full display in week one.
The Tennessee Titans are:
- the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the Titans and Jaguars.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are:
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
- 5-16 ATS in their last 21 September games.
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record.
I am siding with the Titans in this one. While the Jaguars did look good last week I do not expect them to be able to duplicate that performance. I can’t see Fournette having another big game against the Titans rush defense. Tennessee only allowed an average of 88 rushing yards per game last season, and they will excel when it comes to stopping the run again, so I expect them to slow Fournette down. Furthermore, Bortles was not all that sharp last week, completing only 11 of his passes, and they are without top receiver Allen Robinson. Tennessee has a lot of weapons on offense and I like their chances in this one.
Pick: Tennessee Titans -1.5
The Titans should have a strong afternoon offensively. Mariotta should rebound nicely and have a strong game and they have several offensive threats that will be tough for the Jags to handle, and the over is 4-1 in the Titans last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 passing yards in their previous game. While the Titans should slow Fournette down, I expect him to still move the ball on the ground with some success, and the Jags should score enough points to allow the over to hit, plus the over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games.