Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#277 Buffalo Bills vs.
#278 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 1:00pm EDT
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Written by Adam Rauzino

The Buffalo Bills collide with the Miami Dolphins in a divisional showdown Sunday afternoon from Hard Rock Stadium. The Bills are eager to return to the field after a disappointing week one loss to the rival Steelers. The Dolphins came away with a road win against the Pats in a defensive battle in their season opener. Buffalo topped Miami in both meetings last season.

Line Movements & Weather

The Bills have gone from -2.5 up to -3.5 while garnering 70% of the bets. The sharps could be holding back the line movement on the Bills a bit.

The OU line started at 48.5 and it has gone down to 48 or 47.5 depending on the sportsbook you frequent the most. The Over has grabbed 58% of the bets.

Gametime Weather: Possible thunderstorms with temps in the upper 80s.

Bills Attempt to Rebound from Week One Defeat

The Buffalo Bills are looking to rebound from a disappointing result in week one. They were 6.5 point favorites in a 23-16 home loss to the Steelers. It’s a long season and the 2020 NFC East champion Bills won’t let the loss get them down. With that said nobody wants to be 0-2 and this is viewed as an important game.

Josh Allen was productive in the defeat, collecting 270 passing yards but didn’t have his usual effectiveness in the red zone. The 25-year old QB had an MVP caliber 2020 season, registering over 4400 passing yards accompanied by a dazzling 37:10 TD to INT ratio. He tossed seven touchdowns against Miami in 2020. The Bills running game complements the passing game nicely led by Devin Singletary who averaged 4.4 yards per rush in 2020 and 6.5 yards per rush attempt last week.

Stefon Diggs was a huge threat against the Steelers last week, making nine catches for 69 yards. The 27-year old WR will likely be lined up against Dolphins star corner Xavien Howard. Diggs recorded 229 yards against Miami last year. The Bills offense only generated one touchdown last week but still tallied a respectable total of 387 yards.

The Buffalo defense is solid. They ranked 13th against the pass and 17th against the run in 2020. The defense was effective against Big Ben and Co., allowing just 188 yards in the air and only 75 rushing yards. Safety Jordan Poyer led the team in tackles last season and issued one sack last week. Buffalo ranked 2nd with 31.3 points in 2020. They allowed an average of 23.4 points, placing them 16th in the NFL.

Injury Report

Out - WR Marquez Stevenson

Questionable - DE Efe Obada and DB Micah Hyde

Dolphins Defense Shines in Win Against Pats

The Miami Dolphins enter their home opener with confidence. They were labeled 3.5 point dogs in a narrow 17-16 road win against the division-rival Patriots last week and are again labeled the dog for this one. Miami quietly finished with a 10-6 record in 2020 and a similar win total is more than possible.

The Dolphins' success in 2020 depends largely on the progression of Tua Tagovailoa. The former Alabama QB displayed glimpses of his potential in his 2020 rookie season but left you wanting more from the former 1st round pick. He finished with over 1800 passing yards accompanied by an 11:5 TD to INT ratio last year and recorded 202 passing yards last week.

Miami has a solid running back in Myles Gaskin. The 24-year old rushed for 585 yards in 10 games last year and accrued 49 yards on nine carries last week. Dolphins #1 WR DeVante Parker will be targeted heavily in this one. He tallied 169 receiving yards in his two performances against the Bills last year. The Dolphins offense is mediocre however if Tagovaila can take his game to the next level this team will be tough to beat.

Miami’s defense is their top strength. They had some trouble last week, surrendering 393 total yards. This included 281 passing yards to Mac Jones in his NFL Debut. The Dolphins were tabbed 16th against the pass and 23rd against the run in 2020. They scored an average of 25.3 points last season, ranking them 15th in the league. Miami held foes to only 21.1 points, good for sixth in the NFL.

Injury Report

Out - WR Will Fuller V, DT Raekwon Davis, WR Allen Hurns, and OT Larnel Coleman

Best Bets for this Game

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Full-Game Side Bet

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The Bills dropped their season opener but it’s no cause for concern. Josh Allen registered 270 passing yards and the running game accrued 117 yards against a great Steelers' defense. Miami narrowly defeated the Pats last week, however, they surrendered 281 passing yards to rookie QB Mac Jones in his NFL debut. Allen was dominant against Miami in 2020, amassing over 600 passing yards accompanied by seven TD’s, leading his team to a win in both meetings.

Furthermore, the Bills defense should be able to contain Miami’s offense. Tua Tagovailoa has yet to establish himself as a strong NFL QB and has tossed six interceptions in his last five games overall. Buffalo also limited Ben Roethlisberger to only 188 yards last week and they should contain Tua as well.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills -3.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I expect a high-scoring battle. These divisional rivals played in two high-scoring games last season. Buffalo piled on the points in the two meetings, scoring 31 and 56 points respectively. Josh Allen has been able to shine against a Dolphins team who features two of the top corners in the league in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. The over is also 5-1 in the Bills’ last five road games.

In addition, the Dolphins were productive against Buffalo last year, accumulating 53 points. The Bills have a good defense, however, they can be solved, especially on the road. The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between these foes.

Prediction: Over 47.5

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Bills team total is a solid prop. Josh Allen will come through with a complete performance after posting 270 passing yards last week. Stefon Diggs was able to find open field against Miami’s tough CB’s last season, collecting 229 yards. Miami squandered nearly 400 yards last week and the Bills should exploit them.

Prediction: Bills Team Total Over 26.5

Half-Time Side Pick

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The Bills will have a lead at the half. They ranked fourth in the NFL with 15.5 points in the opening half in 2020 and they will be ready to go after last week’s disappointing loss. The Bills allowed the second-fewest first-half points in 2020 and that success carried over last week as they shut out Pittsburgh in the first half. 

Prediction: Buffalo -3
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.