Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#283 Denver Broncos vs.
#284 Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 1:00pm EDT
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville
Written by Nick Raffoul

The Jacksonville Jaguars will try to bounce back as they get set to host the Denver Broncos in a Week 2 battle at TIAA Bank Field on Sunday.

The Urban Meyer-era in Jacksonville did not go as planned in Week 1, as the Jaguars were well short on the road in an ugly game against the Houston Texans. Meanwhile, Denver is coming off of a convincing Week 1 victory on the road in New York against the Giants. Broncos head coach Vic Fangio entered the season as one of the NFL coaches on the hot seat but could find himself in a much more comfortable position with another win this week. Following Sunday’s contest, Denver will host the New York Jets in their home opener at Mile High Stadium in Week 3.

Can the Broncos improve to 2-0 with a win on the road in Jacksonville against the Jaguars on Sunday?

Line Movements & Weather

The Broncos have gone from -2.5 up to -6 while grabbing 68% of the bets. The Sharps have been helping out Denver on the line move.

The OU line has gone from 43.5 up to 45 or 45.5, depending on where you shop with the bets split down the middle.

Gametime Weather: Showers and thunderstorms will be in the area with temps in the lower 80s.

Lawrence debuts with 3 INT in loss vs. Texans

Jacksonville fell behind early and never recovered in a 37-21 loss versus the Houston Texans in Week 1. Trevor Lawrence threw for 332 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in his NFL debut while DJ Chark led the team in receiving with three catches for 86 yards and a score on the day.

It was a rough afternoon for Lawrence, who appeared out of sync with Chark, his top target for most of the game. Lawrence connected on just three of his 12 throws to Charks, who missed most of camp and the preseason with a hand injury. Perhaps most surprisingly, Meyer and the Jaguars brass opted to throw the ball a whopping 51 times and called just 16 runs in the loss.

On defense, Jacksonville will be looking to bounce back following an awful performance against Houston. The Jaguars surrendered 37 points and 449 yards of total offense in the loss. The pass rush is also still a problem for Jacksonville, which allowed Texans’ veteran Tyrod Taylor to carve up the defense for 291 passing yards.

Injury Report

Out - DB Ronald Darby, RB Adrian Killins Jr., DB Michael Ojemudia, DB Duke Dawson Jr., DB Essang Bassey, and RB Mike Boone

Doubtful - OG Graham Glasgow

Fangio looks to improve record vs. rookie QBs in Week 2

Denver scored 24 unanswered points en route to a 27-13 win over the New York Giants in Week 1. Teddy Bridgewater looked good in his Broncos debut, completing 28 of 26 for 264 yards and two touchdowns in the win. Jerry Jeudy led the team in receiving with six catches for 72 yards before getting carted off of the field in the third quarter with a knee injury. Jeudy is expected to miss four to six weeks with a high ankle sprain, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.

Despite getting out-carried by rookie Javonte Williams, veteran running back Melvin Gordon made his presence felt in the run game in Week 1, rushing 11 times for 101 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown run. While durability remains a concern for the 28-year-old, he showed that he still had plenty left in the tank against the Giants. Last season, Gordon finished with 986 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns, including nine rushing scores.

After losing Jeudy last weekend, Denver will look to get more production out of No. 1 wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who caught just one pass for 14 yards against the Giants. Noah Fant and Tim Patrick also figure to get more work in Jeudy’s absence. Patrick figures to benefit the most. He caught a touchdown from Bridgewater last week and had 79 catches for 742 yards and six scores in an expanded role when Sutton went down last year.

On defense, Denver is fresh off of allowing just 13 points and 327 yards of total offense against the Giants. While Von Miller picked up two sacks in the win, the Broncos also did a good job of stopping the run, limiting New York to just 60 rushing yards.

Injury Report

Out - DB Tre Herndon, WR Tavon Austin, and LB Dylan Moses

Best Bets for this Game

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

Over the last four seasons as a head coach or defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio is 6-2 against teams that have started a rookie quarterback. That mark has a good chance of improving this weekend. Denver flexed its muscles in Week 1 against what now appears to be a better-than-expected New York Giants team. The Broncos played well on both sides of the ball and appear to be equipped in the secondary to handle Lawrence and the Jaguars' passing attack. With the Broncos favored by less than a touchdown, take Denver to cover the spread on the road in this AFC showdown in Jacksonville on Sunday. 

Prediction: Denver Broncos -6

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

These two teams are projected for 45 points but that number seems to be set very low here. After a three-interception performance against the Texans in Week 1, I’m expecting more of the same from Lawrence against a much tougher defense here. That should lead to plenty of easy opportunities for the Broncos, who are coming off of a strong offensive showing on the road against the Giants in Week 1. After allowing 291 passing yards to Tyrod Taylor and company last week, the Jaguars’ defense could have their hands full once again here. Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be able to help push this game over the projected total by putting points on the board while playing from behind. Take this game to go over the projected total on Sunday.

Prediction: Over 45
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He has been a very successful sports bettor over the years and has now brought his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.