Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#467 Cincinnati Bengals 40.5 vs.
#468 Buffalo Bills -6
Sunday, September 22, 2019 at 1:00pm EDT
New Era Field, Orchard Park
Written by Ricky Dimon



#467 Cincinnati
#468 Buffalo


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The Buffalo Bills are off to a surprising 2-0 start as they prepare to host the Cleveland Browns at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Desperate for a win

Unlike the Bills, Cincinnati is off to an 0-2 start. The Bengals got edged out at Seattle 21-20 in Week 1 before losing at home to San Francisco 41-17. Quarterback Andy Dalton has done all he can, but a nonexistent running game is the culprit of a dreadful offense. Dalton leads the NFL in completions this season with 61 and has thrown for 729 yards and four touchdowns in the Bengals first two games.

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“We understand it’s going to be a tall order,” said Buffalo linebacker Jerry Hughes, who played with Dalton in college at TCU. “Andy and this offense, he’s been throwing for 300 yards a game so far. Both receivers are putting up big numbers, he’s got two strong runners and he’s got a great offensive line. We understand it’s going to be a tall task for us…. No one wants to be 0-3 in this business. So they’re going to come out and they’re going to give us the best game. We’ve got to match that intensity with the same energy that our fans are going to bring into the stadium.”

The Bengals rushed for 25 yards on 19 carries against San Francisco; that’s right: 25 yards in 19 carries. Their imbalanced offense can obviously be explained, as Cincinnati trailed by 14 points at halftime and had no choice but to air it out. The 1.3 yards-per-attempt average, however, cannot even be forgiven. Both Joe Mixon (17 carries through two contests) and Giovani Bernard (13 carries) have 27 yards on the season.

Tough runners

Buffalo won each of its first two games on the road, victimizing the two New York squads. Second-year quarterback Josh Allen led the way to a 17-16 defeat of the Jets and then to a 28-14 victory over the Giants in what may have been Eli Manning’s final NFL start. Allen is completed 64.2 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions in addition to 59 rushing yards and two more scores on 17 keepers.

Tight end Tyler Kroft has been sidelined since the second day of OTAs with a foot injury. On Wednesday, though, Kroft was a full participant in practice for the first time this season. Across his four NFL seasons, Kroft has recorded 661 yards and eight touchdowns. His best season was in 2017, when he had 42 receptions for 404 yards and seven touchdowns. But it is the Bills’ running game that may be especially problematic for Cincinnati, which missed 11 tackles during its loss to the 49ers.

“You can’t be sloppy with your fits,” Bengals head coach Zac Taylor explained. “When you get ahold of these guys, you need to bring him down. Frank Gore is a tough runner. They have some young, tough runners in there, as well, so it’s a good group. They’re going to make you tackle. They’re going to make you tackle on the perimeter, so our defensive backs need to do a good job fitting up and being where they’re supposed to be so that ball can’t bounce outside and get big gains. They’ll make you pay for that stuff.”

Update: (9/21/19): Rookie Running back Devin Singletary will miss this game due to a hamstring injury. Singletary, a third-round pick, has 127 rushing yards and 28 receiving yards with a touchdown in the first two games. That means veteran Frank Gore will start at running back and T.J. Yeldon will be his backup.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


San Francisco’s dominant performance running all over the Bengals is cause for concern as the visitors bid for their first win of the season. Cincinnati can ill afford to get manhandled on the ground again, but it might against a Buffalo squad that is averaging 135.5 yards per game in that department. Gore and Devin Singletary could have a field day at the Bengals’ expense. The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six following a win and 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 3 games.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Cincinnati is averaging 18.5 points per game through two weeks. Dalton has been sacked a ridiculous nine times so far. That does not bode well for the visitors’ chances against a Buffalo defense that is sixth overall in the NFL and sixth against the pass. In other words, the Bills can take away the Bengals’ strength: the passing game. The under is 4-1-2 in the Bengals’ last seven overall, 3-0-1 in their last four on the road, 3-0-2 in their last five against the AFC, and 4-1-1 in their last six following a loss. It is also 4-1 in the Bills’ last five overall and 4-0 in their last four following a win. Go with the under.

Prediction: Under

Written By Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is based in Atlanta, Georgia. Prior to joining the Winners & Whiners Staff, he worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.