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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills,
9-24-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#469 Denver
Broncos
#470 Buffalo
Bills

Sunday, September 24, 2017 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

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Denver Broncos (2-0; 1-0-1 ATS; 2-0 O/U) vs. Buffalo Bills (1-1; 2-0 ATS: 0-2 O/U)

NFL Week Three: Sunday, September 24, 2017 at 1:00pm EST

Line: Denver -2

Total: 41

The Denver Broncos will head to Buffalo to battle the Bills in an AFC tilt Sunday afternoon from New Era Field. The Broncos are coming off a convincing 42-17 home win over the Cowboys, and the Bills were edged 9-3 by the Panthers in their latest action. This marks the first meeting since the 2014 season in a game the Broncos won 24-17.

Siemian, Anderson Shine in Dominating Win vs Cowboys

The Denver Broncos struck early and often in their outstanding 42-17 home win over the Cowboys last Sunday. Trevor Siemian was tremendous, collecting 231 passing yards with four touchdowns against one interception. The 25-year old quarterback is off to a strong start, recording 457 passing yards with a 6:2 TD to INT ratio through two games. C.J. Anderson was a force in the win, racking up 118 yards on 25 carries. The fifth-year running back rushed for a solid 81 yards in week one and could rush for 1000 yards this season. Demaryius Thomas made his presence felt, bringing in six catches for 71 yards. The 29-year old receiver has recorded five consecutive seasons of 1000 rushing yards and should be on his way to another. Emmanuel Sanders was solid after a quiet week one, registering 62 receiving yards with two touchdowns. The Broncos offense is off to a very promising start, displaying both a strong run and passing game.

The Broncos vaunted defense came up huge against the Cowboys, holding Dallas to only 268 total yards and limited Ezekiel Elliot to only eight rushing yards on nine carries. Von Miller was a beast, making two sacks and two tackles for a loss. The Denver defense is looking more dominating than ever after shutting down the Cowboys last week and a strong performance against the Chargers in week one.

Taylor Silenced by Panthers Defense

The Buffalo Bills could not solve the Carolina Panthers defense in a tough 9-3 road loss in week two. Tyrod Taylor struggled, converting on 17 of 25 passes for only 125 yards along with 55 rushing yards. The 28-year old quarterback was solid in week one against the Jets and has now recorded 349 passing yards with two TD’s against one INT. He will face another stifling defense again this week and can’t be expected to put up big numbers. Star running back LeSean McCoy was also silenced by Denver, rushing for only 9 yards on 12 carries, and he also led the Bills 34 receiving yards.  The 29-year old running back did have a big game in week one, rushing for 110 yards, but will be hard-pressed to do a whole lot of damage against Denver. Jordan Matthews was kept quiet, making only three grabs for 30 yards. The fourth-year receiver only made two catches in week one and is still waiting to make his presence felt since coming over in a trade from the Eagles in the preseason. The Bills tough schedule continues against the Broncos stifling defense followed by a matchup against the powerhouse Falcons offense.

The Bills’ defense was the silver lining in the loss to the Panthers, conceding only 255 total yards and 178 passing yards. They also applied big pressure to Newton, making a total of six sacks with Lorenzo Alexander coming up with one sack and two tackles for a loss. The Bills defense has looked terrific through two games.

Trends:

The Denver Broncos are:

  • 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
  • 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.

The Buffalo Bills are:

  • 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
  • 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • 12-26-2 ATS in their last 40 home games against a team with a winning road record.

I am taking the Broncos in this matchup. The Bills offense sputtered last week against the Panthers defense and are facing another tremendous defense this week. The Broncos were able to completely shut down Ezekiel Elliot last week by holding him to only eight rushing yards, so they should be able to do the same against LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor. Furthermore, the Broncos offense was unstoppable last week as they peppered the Cowboys with 178 rushing yards and four passing touchdowns. Denver features the stronger defense, and their offense has looked much better than the Bills, so I am confident they are the play in this one.

Pick: Denver Broncos -2

The Broncos and Bills have both put on dazzling defensive performances early on this season. The Broncos vaunted defense shut down the electrifying Ezekiel Elliot last week, and overall they feature an outstanding rush defense, so they should shut down the Bills. Also, the Bills were able to hold Cam Newton and the Panthers to nine points on the road, so they should contain the Broncos offense, and the under is 9-4 in their last 13 September games.

Pick: Under 41

5

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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