Miami Dolphins (1-0; 1-0 ATS; 0-1 O/U) vs. New York Jets (0-2; 0-2 ATS; 1-1 O/U)
NFL Week Three: Sunday, September 24, 2017 at 1:00pm EST
Line: Miami -6
The New York Jets will clash with the Miami Dolphins in an AFC East battle Sunday afternoon from MetLife Stadium. The Dolphins edged the Chargers by a 19-17 score last week, and the Jets are coming off a 45-20 road loss to the Raiders. The Dolphins won both games against the Jets last season, notching a 27-23 home win in the first meeting, and followed that up with a 34-13 road win in the second meeting.
Dolphins Return to Miami with Solid Road Win
The Miami Dolphins outscored the Chargers 16-7 in the second half in their solid 19-17 road win in their season opener last week. Cody Parkey hit a 54-yard field goal with just over one minute remaining and the Chargers missed a 44-year attempt with nine seconds remaining to send the Dolphins back to Miami with a big win. Jay Cutler was solid, completing 24 of 33 passes for 230 yards with one touchdown. The 34-year old quarterback only posted a 4:5 TD to INT ratio in five games with the Bears last season, however, the Dolphins will be a run-heavy team this season. Jay Ajayi was outstanding, accumulating 122 rushing yards on 28 carries. The 24-year old running back will be the key to the Miami offense with Tannehill out. He rushed for 1272 yards last year and will be relied upon heavily this season. Jarvis Landry was targeted heavily by Cutler, making 13 catches on 15 targets for 78 yards. The 24-year old wide receiver is a big threat, recording over 1100 receiving yards last season and is one of the stronger wide receivers in the game. The Dolphins offense stuck to their game plan and did not commit any turnovers against the Chargers and will face an easy defense this week.
The Dolphins defense did concede 467 total yards to the Chargers last week however they did hold L.A. to a 2 for 8 mark on third downs. Ndamukong Suh was solid, making four tackles which included two tackles for a loss. Miami’s defense features some strong pieces which includes Suh along with Cameron Wake.
Jets No Match for Raiders in Blowout Loss
The New York Jets had no chance against in a 45-20 blowout loss to the dominant Oakland Raiders in week two. Josh McCown was better than his week one performance, throwing for 166 yards with two touchdowns and no picks. The 38-year old quarterback has now recorded 353 passing yards with two TD’s against two INT’s. The Jets did do strong damage on the ground, rushing for 125 yards on 25 carries, good for an average of five yards per carry. Matt Forte led the way with 53 rushing yards. The veteran back only rushed for 16 yards in week one, and although not flashy, he is a decent option on the ground. He will split carries with Bilal Powell who has only tallied 35 rushing yards on 13 carries. Jermaine Kearse led the Jets in receiving for the second straight week, making four grabs for 64 yards. Kearse has notched 123 receiving yards through two games. The Jets lack of offensive depth will hurt them all season, and they will have difficulty scoring points this season.
The Jets defense had no answer for Derek Carr and the Raiders, surrendering 410 total yards which included 180 rushing yards and six touchdowns. New York has allowed the Bills and Raiders to go a combined 6 for 8 in the red zone this season.
The Miami Dolphins are:
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record.
- 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between the Dolphins and Jets.
The New York Jets are:
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC.
I am siding with the Dolphins in this matchup. The Jets surrendered 192 rushing yards in week one against McCoy and the Bills, and the Dolphins will also run the ball frequently in this one led by the talented Jay Ajayi, so he should come through with a big game. Furthermore, the Jets are facing a solid defense and McCown has thrown 187 or fewer passing yards in both games, and while Matt Forte is decent, he can’t single-handily carry an offense. Miami has the edge in all facets of the game, so this is a very reasonable spread.
Pick: Miami Dolphins -6
While I expect the Dolphins to display a strong offensive effort, they won’t score big points considering they do have Jay Cutler as quarterback. They will be able to move the ball with Ajayi however I just can’t see them putting up big numbers, especially on the road. The Jets offense is facing a tough Miami defense and I don’t think McCown or Forte have the ability to move the ball with regularity against this defense, and the under is 7-1-1 in the Jets last 9 games following an ATS loss.