Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#463 Buffalo Bills vs.
#464 Miami Dolphins
Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 1:00pm EDT
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Written by David Delano

The Miami Dolphins (2-0) will host the Buffalo Bills (2-0) in one of the marquee AFC East matchups.

In 2021, the Bills beat the Dolphins twice. 35-0 in Miami on Sept. 19, and 26-11 in Buffalo on October 31. The Bulls have now won the last seven meetings head-to-head.

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Best team in the World?

The Buffalo Bills are a substantial favorite to win the Super Bowl this season, with +450 odds according to BetMGM. The Bills have been worthy of all the hype through the first two games. They opened the season beating the defending world champion Los Angeles Rams 31-10 as a one-point road favorite. On Monday night, the Bill routed the Tennessee Titans 41-7 as a 10-point favorite.

The Bills are first in the NFL scoring 36 ppg and are second limiting teams to 8.5 ppg. Buffalo is third in total yards per game, led by Josh Allen who is 1st with an 86.8 QBR, fourth with 614 passing yards, and tied for first with seven touchdowns. Allen has thrown two interceptions as well.

The Bills' defense is second holding opponents to just 215 yards per game. They are first allowing just 66 rushing yards per game, and second holding opponents to 149 passing yards.

Buffalo does have some concerns on the injury report with four players out of practice and five players limited on Thursday according to NBC Sports. Amongst those players are safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jackson who are both questionable. (edit: Hyde, Jackson, DT Ed Oliver and DT Jordan Phillips are out).

Dolphins were one of the great Week 2 comeback stories

The Miami Dolphins are also 2-0 after beating New England 20-7 as a three-point home favorite and then beating Baltimore 42-38 as a three-point road dog last Sunday. The win over the Ravens was one for the books, as Miami trailed 35-14 heading into the fourth quarter, before outscoring the Ravens 28-3 the rest of the way. Miami won the total yardage battle 547 to 473, led by Tua Tagovailoa who threw for 469 yards on 36 of 50 passing with six touchdowns and two interceptions.

The Dolphins are now second in total offense averaging 427 yards per game, first with 351.5 passing yards, but 28th with 75.5 yards per game on the ground. The defense is 21st in total yards allowed, 17th in giving up 116.5 rushing yards per game, and 25th in allowing 255.5 passing yards.

Miami's injury report has improved throughout the week.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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I'm not crazy about betting against the Bills, but I have to roll with the Phins here. Buffalo has dominated this rivalry recently and looks like one of the best teams ever through the first two games. The Dolphins however don't look bad themselves. Miami also has the home field and rest advantage after the Bills played Monday night. The Dolphins have played both of their games at 1 pm EST this season, and this will be the first day game for Buffalo. Miami is also coming in as the healthier team when it comes to key players. Tyreek Hill has been a big addition to the Dolphins' receiving core, leading the NFL with 284 receptions through the first two games. Due to the injuries of Hyde and Jackson, expect Tua to connect with Hill for several big plays. Miami may not win this game, but they are the smart play with the five-point buffer at home.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins +5

Full-Game Total Pick

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The sample size is small, but both the Bills and Dolphins have faced two teams that are expected to be solid to begin the season. The results so far are that the Bills lead the NFL averaging 36 ppg, and Miami is sixth averaging 31 ppg. Both teams are also in the top four in passing yards and top three in total yards. The Miami defense has given up some big plays this season. The Bills' defense has been more stout, but they also have some key injuries in the secondary.

Looking at some trends, the Bills have played to the over in four straight road games against teams with a winning home record, and the Dolphins have played four straight home games over the total against a team with a winning record.

Running the ball and grinding out the clock is not the identity of either of these clubs, so expect a shootout between Tua and Allen, which makes the over the best play in this game.

Prediction: OVER 52.5
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Written By David Delano , "David Delano"

David Delano is a Bowling Green State University graduate with a passion for sports, traveling, and music. David loves to handicap MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, WNBA, and is also a big fan of boxing and track and field. Over the years, David has worn several hats in the sports world, from being behind the camera to writing, filming, editing, scouting, and coaching, along with servicing his clients as a sports handicapper.  He is also an expert sports bettor. We are glad to have David on our Winners & Whiners team, and we recommend that you follow along with him every day. 

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