Denver entered the season with as much hype as any team in the NFL. The Broncos have done nothing to disappoint their fans through the first two weeks—they have a chance to move to 3-0 in their home opener against the Jets on Sunday. New York enters this game with an 0-2 record, having lost to Carolina and New England in its first two games.
Wilson coming off four-INT gameNew York’s loss to Carolina in Week 1 now that the Panthers are 3-0. That does not stop the Jets from being 0-2 now, though. They were blown out in a 25-6 final against New England in Week 2. New York rookie quarterback Zach Wilson had an abysmal performance, throwing four interceptions in the loss. He was outdone by New England rookie Mac Jones, who threw for 281 yards and a touchdown. The Jets have now lost their last 11 games in the month of September, leading to some boos from the crowd late in the fourth quarter.
Football pics in the rain >>> pic.twitter.com/nFlKz4gvFI— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 23, 2021
Wilson has completed 55.7% of his pass attempts for 468 yards through two games. He has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions, so that will be something he needs to clean up on Sunday. The Broncos currently rank third in the NFL in team defense, allowing just 251.5 total yards per game. They have the fourth-best turnover differential in the NFL at plus-two. New York’s rushing attack is led by Michael Carter and Ty Johnson, who both have 65 yards. The ground game is averaging 4.1 yards per carry. Wide receiver Braxton Berrios has caught 12 passes for 124 yards, while Corey Davis has added seven receptions for 105 yards.
Bridgewater leads efficient Denver offenseDenver sees itself as a Super Bowl contender, and why shouldn’t it? The Broncos are off to an excellent start, picking up road wins against the Giants and Jaguars to open the year. They trailed New York 7-3 in their season-opener before rattling off 24 unanswered points. Last week’s game took a similar path, as Jacksonville jumped out to a 7-3 lead in the first quarter. The Broncos would go on to score the next 20 points to put the game out of reach. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater leads an offense that is seventh in the league, averaging 409.0 yards per game.
This season, Bridgewater has been as efficient as any quarterback, completing 77.1% of his passes for 592 yards and four touchdowns. He has not thrown an interception through two games, which is one reason why the team’s turnover differential is good. Running back Melvin Gordon III is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on 24 attempts. Javonte Williams has added 27 carries for 109 yards. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton is coming off a big game—he has 10 receptions for 173 yards this year. Tight end Noah Fant and wide receiver Tim Patrick are stepping up in place of the injured Jerry Jeudy.
New York is:
- 19-40-4 ATS in its last 63 games as a road underdog
- 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games in September
- 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games
- 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a favorite
- 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in its previous game
- 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
While I do expect some regression from Denver’s offense at some point, this is not the game where that is going to happen. The Broncos are going to control the pace of this game on both sides. They have a balanced offense that will give New York’s mediocre defense some issues. Denver’s defense should wind up being a top-five unit in the NFL this season. The Broncos do not need to put up many points to cover this spread, as their defense is going to keep Wilson and co. quiet. It’s always tough to go on the road to play in Denver’s altitude, especially when you are a rookie quarterback.
Full-Game Total Pick
I think New York is going to struggle to reach double digits in this game, so I have to play the under. Denver’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball, where it has already shut down the Giants and Jaguars. This Jets offense is not going to give them more trouble than those teams, especially since this is Denver’s first home game. Mile High Stadium is going to be rocking in support of its 2-0 team. The Broncos are perfectly content with controlling the clock with their rushing attack, leading to a low-scoring affair.