The Green Bay Packers will aim for their second win of the season when they host the Buffalo Bills in a week four battle Sunday afternoon from Lambeau Field. The Bills crushed the Vikings 27-6 last week, and the Packers are coming off a 31-17 road loss to the Redskins. These teams last met in 2014 in a game the Bills won 21-13.
Josh Allen Shines in Blowout Win Against Vikings
The Buffalo Bills enter their second straight road game riding a wave of confidence after stunning the Vikings 27-6 last week. Josh Allen was spectacular in his first career road start, completing 15 of 22 passes for 196 yards and one TD, and he added two rushing TD’s. The highly-touted rookie QB out of Wyoming is showing outstanding poise for a rookie, and he has collected 515 passing yards with a 2:2 TD to INT ratio on the season. Chris Ivory saw a bulk of the action on the ground in place of LeSean McCoy last week, and he finished with 56 rushing yards along with 70 receiving yards. McCoy is questionable again for this one. Zay Jones leads all Bills receivers with 106 receiving yards. The Bills showed great determination against the vaunted Vikings defense, and they will head into this one with a ton of momentum along with a confident rookie QB.
— Buffalo Bills (@buffalobills) September 28, 2018
The Bills defense rebounded from two rough performances to start this season by limiting Kirk Cousins and the Vikings to only 292 total yards and six points. Their defensive performance was a stark contrast from their ugly 47-3 season-opening loss, followed by a 31-20 loss to the Chargers in week two. The Bills are currently averaging 16.7 points, ranking them down at 29th in the NFL. Buffalo’s rush defense now ranks fifth in the NFL, and they are conceding an average of 28 points, placing them 24th overall.
Packers Defense Falters in Loss to Redskins
The Green Bay Packers head into this one on a sour note after falling 31-17 to the Redskins last week. Aaron Rodgers put forth a valiant effort, accumulating 265 passing yards with two TD’s. The 34-year old QB has been playing with a brace on his injured knee and he was limping numerous times last week. Rodgers has tallied 832 passing yards with a 6:0 TD to INT ratio this season. The Packers split the carries on the ground evenly between Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery last week, and the trio tallied 87 rushing yards. Jamaal Williams leads Green Bay with 135 rushing yards on the season. Geronimo Allison played well against the Redskins, racking up 76 receiving yards, and he has leapt past Davante Adams and Randall Cobb for the team leading in receiving with 209 yards. The Packers offense hinges on the health of Aaron Rodgers. He clearly isn’t 100%, although he has still been effective, while the Packers running game has been subpar.
LIVE: Coach McCarthy's Thursday press conference 🎥 https://t.co/sRRZGA1ZAU
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) September 27, 2018
The Green Bay defense was shaky for the second straight week against the Redskins. They conceded 386 total yards including 166 rushing yards. Their rush defense has been an issue early this season. The Packers cannot take Buffalo lightly after they just stomped the Vikings 27-6 last week. Green Bay is currently averaging 23.3 points, ranking them 15th in the NFL. The Packers defense is allowing an average of 27.7 points, pegging them 23rd overall.
The Green Bay Packers are:
- 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
The Buffalo Bills are:
- 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
- over is 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking the points with the Bills in this one. The Bills showed great poise and determination last week, and I am very confident they can keep this one close. Josh Allen was able to find open receivers and rush for 39 yards against arguably the best defense in the NFL last week, giving me confidence he can come through with another outstanding performance. The Packers’ defense has looked vulnerable this season, ranking 26th in the NFL against the run, and 22nd against the pass, and Allen has already displayed his talent against a superior Vikings defense. Furthermore, the Bills’ rush defense ranks fifth in the NFL, and the Packers own a weak rush defense. Aaron Rodgers isn’t 100% right now, and the Bills defense is more than capable of at least containing Rodgers.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills +10
Full-Game Total Pick
The over is a solid play in this matchup. The Packers are back on Lambeau Field where they scored 24 points in week one, followed by 29 points against the Vikings, and they should have a productive afternoon on their home field again in this one. While Rodgers isn’t 100%, he is still capable of leading the Packers to a solid afternoon, and the over is 21-5 in the Packers’ last 26 games overall. Furthermore, the Packers defense has conceded 29 and 31 points respectively in their last two games, and the Bills moved the ball well last week, plus the over is 4-0 in the Packers’ last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Prediction: Over 44.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
I am taking the over on the Bills team touchdown total. The Bills scored two touchdowns two weeks ago against the Chargers, followed by three touchdowns in Minnesota last week, and they enter this contest with a ton of momentum. Green Bay’s defense hasn’t looked good as they have allowed a combined 60 points in their last two games, and they are allowing an average of 3.3 touchdowns per game in three games played.
Prediction: Buffalo Team Touchdowns: Over 1.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am taking the points with Buffalo on the halftime line as well. Green Bay has started slow in two of three games this season, and they are only averaging nine points in the first half in three games. Furthermore, the Packers’ defense has struggled in the first half, placing down at 28th in the NFL with an average of 17.3 points against.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills +6.5
Half-Time Total Bet
The over on the halftime total is worth a look. Both teams have played better defense in the second half this season. The Packers have allowed an average of 17.3 points in the first half compared to only 10.3 points in the second half. The Bills are limiting their opposition to only 10 points in the second half compared to an average of 18 points in the first half. In addition, the Bills have done more damage in the opening half this season.
Prediction: Over 22.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am taking the Bills to score first. The Bills are averaging a solid 5.7 points in the first quarter, ranking them 11th in the NFL, while Green Bay is only averaging 2.3 points. In addition, the Packers are allowing an average of 9.3 points in the opening quarter, ranking them down at 28th in the NFL.
Prediction: Team to Score First: Buffalo Bills +125