The Indianapolis Colts will host the struggling Houston Texans in an AFC South clash Sunday afternoon from Lucas Oil Stadium. The Texans are coming off a 27-22 home loss to the Giants, and Colts dropped a 20-16 decision in Philadelphia last week. The Colts were able to beat the Texans in both meetings last season without Andrew Luck, winning 20-14 and 22-13.
Texans Remain Winless After Loss to Giants
The Houston Texans head into this AFC South battle desperate for a win after falling 27-22 to the Giants last week to drop to 0-3. Deshaun Watson was outstanding, notching 385 passing yards with two TD’s against one INT. The 23-year old QB has tallied over 300 passing yards in two consecutive games, and he has accumulated 871 passing yards with a 5:3 TD to INT ratio on the year. The Texans’ running game struggled last week, recording only 59 yards after two big performances to start the season. Lamar Miller leads the Texans with 176 rushing yards on an average of 4 yards per carry. DeAndre Hopkins has been an offensive bright spot early this season, notching 274 receiving yards in three games. Hopkins tallied 86 receiving yards against the Colts last season. The Texans offense actually ranks eighth in the NFL with 396.3 total yards per game, although it has not translated to big points.
"We need to go on the road and put our best foot forward."
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) September 27, 2018
The Houston defense looked quite vulnerable again last week, surrendering 379 total yards. Their rush defense has been shaky, and they conceded 114 rushing yards against the Giants. J.J Watt made three sacks against the Giants which is a welcome sight after he did not record a sack in week one and two. The Texans are currently averaging 19.7 points, ranking them 22nd overall. They are conceding an average of 24.7 points, placing them 19th in the NFL.
Colts Competitive in Loss to Eagles
The Indianapolis Colts head into their first divisional game of the season on a losing note after a hard-fought 20-16 road loss to the Eagles last week to fall to 1-2. Andrew Luck had some trouble in the rainy conditions, registering 164 passing yards on 40 pass attempts to go with one TD. The 29-year old QB is off to a mediocre start to the season, collecting 662 passing yards with a 5:3 TD to INT ratio, and his longest pass completion this season is only 29 yards. The Colts only mustered 68 rushing yards last week which included 19 yards from Jordan Wilkins. Colts #1 RB Marlon Mack has yet to play this season due to injury and he is questionable for this one. T.Y. Hilton led all Colts receivers with 50 yards last week, and the talented 28-year old WR is now up to 179 receiving yards. Hilton brought in eight grabs for 189 yards in two games against the Texans last season. The Colts offense has been stagnant for the most part this season, ranking in the bottom 10 of the NFL in several offensive categories.
The Indianapolis defense did enough to keep them in the game last week, although they squandered a total of 379 total yards. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard picked up two sacks against the Eagles, and he leads his team with 41 tackles and three sacks on the year. The Colts are currently averaging 20 points per game, ranking them 21st in the NFL. The Colts pass defense has played reasonably well, and they are allowing an average of 21 points, pegging them 14th overall.
The Indianapolis Colts are:
- 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC South.
- under is 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
The Houston Texans are:
- 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record.
- 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games in week four.
- the road team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between the Texans and Colts.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I am taking the Texans in this one. Houston is already in must win mode and I expect them to play with desperation in this one. The Texans were leading the NFL in rushing yards prior to week three, and their rushing offense currently ranks eighth in the NFL with 125 rushing yards per game, and the Colts just squandered 152 rushing yards against the Eagles last week. Furthermore, J.J. Watt had his best game of the season last week with three sacks, and I expect the Texans pass rush to carry that momentum into this week and make life difficult for Luck. The Colts’ offense ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in most categories, and I anticipate a strong performance from the Texans defense in this one.
Prediction: Houston Texans +2.5
Full-Game Total Pick
I am confident in the under in this one. The Colts are only averaging 290 total yards per game, ranking them 28th overall, and they are up against a very strong Texans defense that will be playing with some desperation this week, plus the under is 10-1 in the Colts’ last 11 gams overall. Furthermore, while Houston is generating yards, it has not translated to points, and they are averaging just under 20 points this season. The under hit in both meetings between these two rivals last season, and the under is 9-0 in the Colts’ last nine home games against the Texans.
Prediction: Under 47.5
Full-Game Prop Bet
I am taking the under on the Colts team total. Andrew Luck has regressed in each game this season. He completed 73% of his passes in week one, followed by a 67% efficiency in week two, and last week he only converted on 62% of his passes. In addition, Luck has only completed 53.9% of his passes in his career against the Texans. The Colts also have a very weak running game, and I expect a solid defensive performance from Houston.
Prediction: Colts Team Total: Under 23.5
Half-Time Side Pick
I am taking the Colts on the halftime line. The Texans have started out slow in the first half this season, averaging only 6.3 points, ranking them down at 28th in the NFL, while the Colts are averaging a solid 12.3 points. The Texans have been much more productive in the second half where they are averaging 13.3 points, and I expect them to have a strong second half in this one.
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts PK
Half-Time Total Bet
I am staying with the under on the halftime total. The Colts have played strong defense in the first half, holding opponents to only 7.7 points. They limited the Redskins and Colts to only a combined 13 points in the first half in their last two games. In addition, I don’t expect big points in the first half from the Colts against a solid Houston defense.
Prediction: Under 23.5
Half-Time Prop Prediction
I am selecting the under on the Texans first quarter team total. The Texans have yet to score a touchdown in the opening quarter, and they only scored a combined six points in the first quarter through three games this season.
Prediction: Texans First Quarter Team Total: Under