Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#65 Ottawa Senators 6.5 vs.
#66 Montreal Canadiens -195
Wednesday, November 20, 2019 at 7:35pm EST
Bell Centre, Montreal
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of Atlantic Division rivals from north of the border take the ice in the province of Quebec. The Ottawa Senators are on the road as they travel to face the Montreal Canadiens Wednesday night. Ottawa comes in off a 4-3 road win over Detroit Tuesday night in their last game. Montreal was drubbed 5-2 on the road by Columbus in their previous game Tuesday night. The Canadiens have won three straight and eight of the last 10 meetings, including a 5-2 home win in the most recent matchup on December 15, 2018.

Ottawa Senators Look for Back to Back Wins

Ottawa won for the third time in four games as they took down Detroit on the road Tuesday night. The Senators enter this one seventh in the Atlantic Division, seven points back of Montreal for the final guaranteed playoff spot in the division and 12 back of Boston for the division lead. Ottawa is 22nd in the league in goals for as they average 2.75 goals per contest this season. The Senators are 20th in the league as they allow 3.25 goals per game on the year. Ottawa is last in the league with the man advantage as they have converted 8.8 percent (six for 68) of their chances on the power play this season. The Senators are tied for 15th in penalty killing as they have successfully killed off 82.1 percent of their shorthanded situations this year.

In their game Tuesday night, the Senators rode a big second period to the win and look to carry that momentum over here. Ottawa owned a 13-10 edge in shots on goal in the opening period and skated off down 2-1 after 20 minutes. Anthony Duclair opened the scoring with his eighth of the year at 3:08 off an assist from Thomas Chabot. Detroit tallied twice in the period to take a 2-1 lead. In the second period, Ottawa held a 17-12 edge in shots and a 3-0 edge on the scoreboard to take a 4-2 lead after two stanzas. Duclair tied the game with his second of the night and ninth of the year at the 5:00 mark off an assist from Logan Brown. Less than a minute later, Jean-Gabriel Pageau gave the Senators a 3-2 lead with his 12th of the year at the 5:57 mark. That goal was unassisted. Brady Tkachuk made it a 4-2 game with his seventh of the year at 10:22 with Duclair drawing the lone assist. In the third period, the Senators were outshot 16-3 but gave up only one goal to escape with the win. Anders Nilsson made 35 saves in the win for Ottawa, who was outshot 38-33 in the contest. Craig Anderson is expected to get the start here.

Montreal Canadiens Try to Rebound at Home

Montreal was hammered on the road by a Columbus team that they had defeated at the Bell Centre a week previous. The Canadiens enter this one holding the third and final guaranteed playoff spot in the Atlantic Division, five points behind the Bruins for the division lead. Montreal is tied for 6th in the league in scoring as they put up 3.50 goals a night so far this year. The Canadiens are 19th in the league by giving up 3.05 goals per contest this season. Montreal is tied for 15th in the league on the power play by converting 20.3 percent of their chances with the man advantage this season. The Canadiens are only 30th in the league in penalty killing as they successfully get through only 71.9 percent of their shorthanded situations on the year.

In their last contest, the Canadiens played well for two periods but fell apart in the third. That was the tale of the contest. Montreal saw the shots even at 13 in the opening period and the score was even at one after 20 minutes of play. The Canadiens were down 1-0 early when Arturi Lekhonen scored his third of the year at 16:31 to even the score. Phillip Danault and Brett Kulak drew the assists on the marker. In the second period, the Canadiens held an 11-7 edge in shots with each team scoring once, leaving the game knotted at two after two periods of play. Joel Armia gave Montreal a short-lived 2-1 lead with his seventh of the season at 4:29 off assists from Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot. Columbus tied the game later in the period. The final stanza saw Montreal with an 8-6 edge in shots but they were outscored 3-0 to take the loss. Carey Price made 21 saves in the loss for the Canadiens, who owned a 32-26 shot advantage in the game. Keith Kinkaid is expected to get the call between the pipes here.

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Both teams are playing the second game of a back to back so there is no rest bonus here. Adding to that, both teams had to fly into Montreal after playing Tuesday night, making for a pair of tired teams. When you get down to it, you have to look at a couple of factors here. One is momentum: the Senators have won three of their last four and come in off a victory Tuesday night while Montreal was clubbed in the third period of a loss. The other is goaltending: Anderson is nowhere near his prime form but he’s still pretty good most nights. Kinkaid hasn’t done anything to impress people in his outings this season. Ottawa rides its old hand in net and gets the two points on the road.

Prediction: Ottawa Senators +195

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Ottawa won for just the third time in 11 road games with their triumph on Tuesday night in the Motor City. The Senators have seen plenty of pucks find the back of the net as a visiting team this season. Ottawa has been outscored by 13 goals (42-29) on the road this season, meaning the lamp has been lit 71 times in their 11 road contests. That's an average of 6.45 goals per game. Montreal has a +5 goal differential at home this season (33-28), putting 61 goals on the board in their 10 home games. That's an average of 6.1 goals per contest. With both teams having questionable goaltending at times this season, should we be on the lookout for a barrage of goals?

The over has hit in six of the Senators' last eight against Atlantic Division teams. Montreal has seen the over hit in 10 of their last 14 against the Atlantic Division and in five of their last seven against the Eastern Conference. The teams have gone over the number in four of their last five meetings: with both goalies being suspect and the ability to light the lamp early and often, look for this to be a 4-3 or 5-3 type of game that goes past the mark.

Prediction: Over 6
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Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.