Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#71 Toronto Maple Leafs vs.
#72 San Jose Sharks
Friday, November 26, 2021 at 10:35pm EST
SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Written by The Admiral

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Toronto Maple Leafs (14-6-1) vs. San Jose Sharks (10-8-1)

The red-hot Toronto Maple Leafs continue their four-game road trip when they travel to take on the San Jose Sharks on Friday. The Maple Leafs have won the first two contests of this road trip, including defeating the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, 6-2. With the victory, Toronto moved to 8-2 ATS in their last 10. After losing the first contest of their four-game homestand, San Jose has rebounded with two straight victories, including a 6-3 win over Ottawa on Wednesday. The Sharks are 4-6 ATS in their last 10.

Toronto enters as the favorite at -156, with the odds for San Jose set up +135. When giving up 1.5 goals, the odds for the Maple Leafs change to +154, while the Sharks are at -192 when receiving 1.5 goals. San Jose has won the two most recent meetings between these teams, including a 5-3 victory on October 22. The Sharks are 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings while Toronto is 4-5-1.

Four Second Period Goals Propel Maple Leafs

Toronto took a 1-0 lead into the first intermission but blew this game open with four second-period goals on their way to a 6-2 victory over Los Angeles. Toronto got goals from six different players, including Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting, and Pierre Engvall, who each had a goal and an assist. Defenseman Rasmus Sandin had three helpers in the contest.

Toronto is 22nd in goals per game at 2.71 and they are 25th in shooting percentage at 7.9%. The team is eighth on the power-play at 23.7%. John Taveras leads the team in goals with nine and points with 18. Mitchell Marner is the team leader with 11 assists and is tied with two other players with 17 points.

While the offense has struggled a little, the Maple Leafs have been outstanding defensively, third in the NHL at 2.24 goals allowed per game. Toronto is also eighth in penalty killing at 85.7%. Jack Campbell has taken over the goaltending duties and has been spectacular, going 11-4-1 with a 1.68 GAA and a .943 save percentage. Campbell has allowed six total goals over his last five games.

Sharks Close Out Contest to Down Senators

Ottawa held a one-goal lead with a little under four minutes left in the second period, but Nick Bonino scored the tying goal with 31 seconds left in the frame, starting a run of four straight goals for the Sharks as they defeated the Senators, 6-3. Timo Meier led San Jose with a goal and two assists. James Reimer stopped 26 of 29 shots.

San Jose is 21st in goals per game at 2.74 and is 14th in shooting percentage at 9.7%. The Sharks are 17th on the power-play at 18.9%. San Jose is led in scoring by Meier with 18 points. Tomas Hertl is the team leader in goals with eight, scoring for in his last six games.

The Sharks are 14th in goals allowed per game at 2.79 and they have an exceptional penalty-killing unit as well, second in the NHL at 88.9%. Reimer should be back in the net again on Friday. He is now 6-3-1 with a 2.04 GAA and a .936 save percentage. Reimer has been inconsistent of late, allowing 3+ goals, then responding by allowing a single goal in his next contest. He allowed three goals in his last outing, so could a spectacular performance be seen on Friday?

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Toronto is playing exceptionally well right now, but they are not blowing out opponents. The Maple Leafs have won six of their last seven games, but three of those games have been decided by a single goal and two have been decided by two goals. What has allowed the Maple Leafs to dominate opponents has been the spectacular goaltending they are getting, as they have allowed 10 goals over their last seven games while recording four shutouts and that span.

It clearly is the case that Toronto is going to win this game, but San Jose is getting outstanding goaltending themselves and their penalty-killing unit has been so good that they should help to keep this game close, maybe even forcing overtime. Toronto wins, but not by more than a goal.

Prediction: Take the San Jose Sharks at +1.5 (-192)

Full-Game Total Pick

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These teams are averaging just under six goals per game, but are allowing right around five goals per game combined. This is why I am a bit surprised that oddsmakers believed the total would be this high. These teams are getting solid goaltending, especially the Maple Leafs but, if Reimer keeps his pattern alive, this is likely going to be a goaltending battle. At the very least, Campbell could pitch a shutout in this game, so believing the Maple Leafs are going to score six goals on their own seems ridiculous. 

Toronto has gone under in five straight games and has gone under in eight of their last 11 on the road. San Jose has gone under in four of their last five games overall and five of their last seven on the road.

Take Toronto to win, 3-2.

Prediction: Under 6.0 (–120)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.