Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#43 Toronto Maple Leafs vs.
#44 Ottawa Senators
Saturday, March 18, 2023 at 7:05pm EDT
Canadian Tire Cenre, Ontario
Written by Adam Rauzino


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The Toronto Maple Leafs (49-18-7-2, 28-39 PL, 28-35 O/U) battle the Ottawa Senators (33-31-4-0, 38-30 PL, 32-36 O/U) in a divisional showdown on Saturday night. The Maple Leafs defeated the Hurricanes on Friday night. The Senators were hit with a loss by the Avalanche in their previous bout. The season series is 1-1. 

Maple Leafs Begin Road Trip

The Toronto Maple Leafs begin a road trip on Saturday night. Toronto is likely going to finish in second place in the Atlantic division and have another meeting with Tampa Bay in the playoffs. They are seeking to finish ahead of the Lightning to secure home ice in the opening round. The Maple Leafs lost a 2-1 shootout decision to the Avalanche on Wednesday and are 6-3-1 in their last ten games after Friday's 5-2 victory.

Mitch Marner continues to dazzle. The 25-year-old star has accumulated 15 points in his last eight games including four points against the Oilers last week. Marner now has 86 points on the season. He accrued two assists in two games against the Senators. William Nylander has recorded two goals in his last three games. The 26-year-old winger is having the best season of his career, collecting 79 points. Auston Matthews has scored three goals this month. The star has not been as productive as last season but has still managed to net 31 goals and a +27 rating. 

The Maple Leafs continue to share the goaltending duties with Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov. Murray has been subpar recently and is sporting a 2.92 GAA and a .903 save %. Samsonov has posted a 2.36 GAA and a dazzling .916 save %. Toronto is scoring an average of 3.4 goals, ranking them eighth. They are limiting opponents to 2.7 goals, placing them sixth in the NHL. 

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Senators Drifting in Standings

The Ottawa Senators are in need of wins. They are eight points out of the last Wildcard spot but do have games in hand. Ottawa has been shaky, losing four in a row. They went 1-4 on a recent road trip and returned home with another loss, dropping a narrow 5-4 home decision against the Avalanche on Thursday evening. They are 5-5 in their last ten games.

Tim Stutzle continues to find the back of the net, recording three goals in his last three games. The young winger is having a breakout season, amassing 34 goals along with 42 assists. He has two points in the two meetings against the Maple Leafs. Claude Giroux only has six points so far this month. The veteran winger is having a productive year, earning 66 points. He has accumulated four points in two games against Toronto. Jakob Chychrun has four points since being acquired by the Coyotes. The skilled defenseman has 32 points on the season. 

The Senators are starting Mads Sogaard in a majority of the games recently as their top netminder Anton Forsberg is out with injury. Sogaard is struggling, recording a  3.46 GAA and an .883 save % accompanied by a 5-4-1 record while Kevin Madoelese has a 3.29 GAA and a .916 save %. Ottawa is scoring an average of 3.1 goals, ranking them 16th. They are conceding an average of 3.3 goals, pegging them 20th. 

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Toronto Maple Leafs are the better squad and continue to generate offense, netting five goals in a convincing home win against the Hurricanes on Friday.  They stand at 6-3-1 in their last ten games. The Ottawa Senators have been slipping, dropping five out of their last six games including a loss to the Blackhawks in that span.

Furthermore, Toronto is sporting a strong xGF/60 minutes of 2.92 goals which is fifth in the NHL. This is key as the Senators' defensive play is poor. They have posted an xGA/60 of 2.77 goals, and the defense and goaltending have been exploited in the recent string of defeats. They have surrendered 25 goals in their last five games.

Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs -145

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Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


This game will have a barrage of scoring. The Maple Leafs should light the lamp against a Senators squad that has conceded four or more goals in five consecutive games. The goaltending is poor now that Anton Forsberg is out of action. Backup Mads Sogaard has a poor .883 save % on the season.

In addition, the Senators' offense has been outstanding. They have collected eight goals in the two meetings against the Maple Leafs and have averaged a stellar 3.6 goals in their last ten games including four against the Avs on Thursday. The over is also 4-0 in their last four home games.

Prediction: Over 6.5

Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.