Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#25 Calgary Flames vs.
#26 Toronto Maple Leafs
Tuesday, April 13, 2021 at 7:35pm EDT
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Written by Valdis Pans

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Having ended a six-game winning run and a 10-game point streak with a defeat in Montreal, the Toronto Maple Leafs (1st in North Division) return home to play the second contest of their current back-to-back set, with the Calgary Flames (5th in the North) paying a visit on the back of a shutout win against Edmonton.

Flames Snap Losing Skid

A four-game losing streak (0-4-0) finally ended for the Calgary Flames (17-21-3), who banked a 5-0 shutout victory against the Edmonton Oilers at Scotiabank Saddledome on Saturday. The Flames outshot the visitors 32-17, killed both of their penalties, went 1-for-4 with the man-advantage and scored four times in the second period, adding another marker in the final third, thus recording their fourth blanking of the season. Five different players scored, with Johnny Gaudreau (14 goals, 29 points this year) and Mark Giordano (7 goals, 19 points) both recording a snipe and an assist. It was Calgary’s second win in the last 10 games (2-8-0).

Goalie Jacob Markstrom stopped 17 shots for his third shutout of the season and eighth of his NHL career. He has posted a 13-14-2 total for the ongoing campaign with a 2.91 GAA and a .901 save percentage, and has picked up a 3-7-1 past tally against the Toronto Maple Leafs with a 3.15 GAA and a .890 save percentage. The Flames, meanwhile, are netting the 7th lowest amount of goals per game this year (2.61), while allowing the 13th highest quantity on the defensive end (3.00). The team is 17th in power play with a 20.0% success rate and 14th in penalty kill with 80.3% efficiency.

Leafs End Win And Point Streaks

A six-game winning run and a 10-game point streak (9-0-1) came to an end for the Toronto Maple Leafs (28-11-3), who were beaten with a score of 4-2 by the Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre last night. The Leafs matched the hosts in shots (25-25), but failed to convert on both of their power-play opportunities and went just 1-for-2 on penalty kill, eventually scoring twice in the second frame to erase Montreal’s 2-0 first-period lead, only for the Habs to take a 3-2 lead just before the second intermission, adding an empty-netter at the end of the game. Auston Matthews (53 points this year) extended his goal streak to five fixtures with his league-leading 32nd snipe of the season, while John Tavares (34 points) scored for the 13th time this year.

Goalie Jack Campbell (11-1-0 for the current campaign with a 1.98 GAA and a .930 save percentage) ended his NHL-record run of 11 straight games to start a season with a 21-save performance yesterday. Michael Hutchinson (4-2-1 on the year with a 2.42 GAA and a .919 save percentage), though, is expected to start for Toronto tonight, having recorded a 4-4-0 past total against the Calgary Flames with a 2.83 GAA and a .911 save percentage. The Maple Leafs are 5th in most goals scored per game in 2020-21 (3.33), 7th in least goals conceded on average (2.60), 11th in power play (2.29) and 22nd in penalty kill (77.5%).

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The Flames ended a four-game-losing run, triumphing just for the second time in their past 10 games after shutting out Edmonton with a count of 5-0 on Saturday. They were, however, in no small part aided in that win by a rare off-day of the Oilers, who seemed understandably discomposed after attending the one-year memorial of their late colleague Colby Cave earlier that day. Having said that, a contest against the Maple Leafs will be a completely different ball game, even with Toronto skating with no rest. The Leafs have already triumphed in five of their last seven outings played on the second night of their back-to-backs and will have all the motivation to bounce back from a poor performance at the Montreal Canadiens, who ended their 10-game point streak (9-0-1). With six of the past nine defeats of the Flames coming by more than just one snipe, do bet on Toronto to do the job on the puck line here as well! Even more so after the Leafs have already beaten Calgary by exactly two snipes in each of their last three head-to-head meetings.

Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140)

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This series has not been delivering offensive fireworks lately, with 10 of the last 16 head-to-head meetings between the Maple Leafs and the Flames, and seven of their previous eight encounters in Toronto all ending on the low-scoring side. The most recent four road fixtures of Calgary have also gone below the set goal-mark, averaging just 3.50 tallies per matchup, while six of the last nine outings of the Maple Leafs against teams with a losing record have all witnessed just a minimal amount of goals. So, do bank on this one to be decided with no more than five snipes on the scoresheet once again!

Prediction: Under 5.5

Written By Valdis Pans , "Valdis Pans"

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