The Dallas Wings (1-9) and the Phoenix Mercury (6-4) will meet in the Commissioner's Cup in the WNBA on Wednesday in this Wings vs. Mercury prediction. This is their first of four matchups in this WNBA season. Dallas just lost at home to Minnesota 81-65, while Phoenix is coming off an 87-77 home loss to Seattle. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 EST. See below for our Wings vs. Mercury prediction, and keep up with all of our winning WNBA Predictions!
Dallas Rookie Returns
The Dallas Wings are off to a miserable start to their 2025 season in the WNBA, as they only won one of their first ten games, and have had to deal with an injury to their number one overall draft pick coming into the season. Paige Bueckers is the future of the franchise, but she has missed several games with a concussion, and the team has not been able to win without her in the lineup. In their last game, Dallas got 26 points from Arike Ogunbowale in the loss to Minnesota.
Ogunbowale is a veteran scorer in the league as a 5'9 guard, she is leading the team with 16.3 PPG and has been with the team her whole career beginning in 2019. She is also a strong ball handler averaging 4.0 APG while grabbing 3.0 rebounds per game. Ogunbowale is their top outside shooter with 2.2 made threes per game. Bueckers is expected to make her return to the lineup here, she missed four games, but averaged 14.7 PPG and a team-high 6.7 APG in her first six games. DiJonai Carrington is another scoring option as he contributes 12.6 PPG as a 5'11 guard.
Dallas ranks 6th in the league out of 13 teams in scoring with 81.6 points per game, and their defense ranks 11th by giving up 88.1 points per game, signaling their fast pace of play. Dallas is 11th in threes made per game with 6.7 per game.
Mercury Are Second in West
The Phoenix Mercury are battling for position in the West, as their 6-4 record is good enough for second in the conference. The Minnesota Lynx have a stranglehold on the division as they are undefeated, but the rest of the pack is in a tight race for seeding. Phoenix is 4th overall in the league standings, which is more important as only the top eight teams advance to the postseason regardless of conference. In their last game, the Mercury got 22 points from Satou Sabally in the loss to Seattle.
Sabally will be taking on her former team as the 27-year-old forward spent her first five seasons in the league with Dallas. She is averaging a strong 20.5 PPG and 7.7 RPG this season, leading the Mercury in both categories. She is an all-around player, as she also tops the team with 3.0 APG and 1.7 steals per game. Alyssa Thomas is also slated to make her return from injury in this game, she puts up a strong stat line including 15.2 PPG, 8.0 APG and 7.2 RPG as a potential triple-double threat every night. Kitija Laska is their top outside shooter, she makes 1.9 threes per game while adding 8.6 PPG from the perimeter.
Phoenix ranks 10th in the league in scoring with 78.6 points per game, and their defense ranks 4th by giving up 78.1 per game. They are 5th in the league in threes made per game, converting 9.3 attempts from beyond the arc per game.
Best Bets for Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury
Full-Game Side Bet
Insiders Status:
Both teams are welcoming back one of their top players for this matchup, as Dallas is bringing back Paige Bueckers and Phoenix returns Alyssa Thomas. The difference is that Bueckers will be playing just her 7th WNBA game when the ball tips off, while Alyssa Thomas has been one of the best players in the league for nearly a decade. Dallas has been a struggling franchise, and even though Bueckers is back, it does not change much, the team went just 1-5 in her first six games when she was healthy. Sabally will be taking on her former team and has upped her scoring with Thomas out. As Thomas returns, it will form a duo that Dallas cannot keep up with.
Take the Mercury to win and cover.
Full-Game Total Pick
Insiders Status:
There is a difference of styles here, Dallas likes to push the pace and worry about defense later, while Phoenix plays a more grind-it-out style of ball in the halfcourt. Phoenix is at home, and the stronger team, which will allow them to control the tempo and keep this game under the number. Dallas only has two reliable scorers in this game, and one of them is a rookie. Bueckers is a strong prospect, but cannot be relied upon to score 20 plus on any given night at this point in her career. Phoenix is 4th in the league in scoring defense, and will slow the game down even more with Alyssa Thomas looking to create in halfcourt sets. This will be a low scoring game.
Take the under.
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