Los Angeles Sparks (3-7) vs. Las Vegas Aces (4-3)
The 2025 WNBA betting action goes on Wednesday, June 11, with the Commissioner’s Cup clash from Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, and we’ve got you covered with our Sparks vs. Aces prediction.
The Sparks meet the Aces for the second time this season. Last month, the Aces beat the Sparks 96-81 in Las Vegas, covering a 10.5-point spread, and the game flew over the 166.5-point line.
Read more about this Sparks vs. Aces prediction and check out all our WNBA picks for Wednesday’s slate. The tip-off at Michelob ULTRA Arena is set for 10:00 PM ET, and the Aces are listed as 11-point favorites with a total of 166.5 points.
The Sparks are coming off a tough loss
The Los Angeles Sparks have only won one of their last five games overall. After stopping a three-game slide with a 93-79 road victory over the Dallas Wings, the Sparks suffered an 89-81 overtime defeat to the Golden State Valkyries this past Monday.
The Sparks allowed the Valkyries to grab a whopping 17 offensive rebounds. Los Angeles scored just three points in overtime and finished the game with a 38.9 field-goal percentage. Kelsey Plum led the way with 24 points and seven assists, while Dearica Hamby posted a line of 20 points, nine rebounds, and five assists.
Plum is tallying 21.8 points and 5.4 assists per game in her first season with the Sparks. Hamby is posting 18.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest, and Azura Stevens is adding 13.7 points and 8.8 boards a night.
The Sparks rank fifth in the WNBA in adjusted offensive efficiency (104.6 points per 100 possessions) and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency (106.7). They are sixth in both 3-point rate (.386) and 3-point percentage (33.9%).
The Aces hope for a bounce-back performance
The Las Vegas Aces are coming off Saturday’s 95-68 defeat at the Golden State Valkyries. After consecutive wins against the Los Angeles Sparks 96-81 and the Seattle Storm 75-70, the Aces were humiliated in San Francisco.
Las Vegas made just 35.5% of its field goals last Saturday. The Aces posted an ugly 11/13 assist-to-turnover ratio, allowed 22 fast-break points, and were outscored in the paint 38-26. A’ja Wilson had 17 points and six rebounds, going just 5-for-13 from the field, and Chelsea Gray accounted for 16 points.
Jackie Young scored four points against the Valkyries. She’s tallying 16.1 points per game, while Wilson is posting 22.0 points and 9.9 rebounds a night. The Aces desperately need more from Jewell Loyd, who’s averaging 9.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in her first year in Las Vegas.
After the first few weeks of the season, it’s safe to say that Las Vegas’ offense is a huge disappointment. The Aces score 101.7 points per 100 possessions (9th in the WNBA) and surrender 104.1 points in return (9th). They rank fifth in the league in both 3-point rate (.398) and 3-point percentage (34.6%).
Best Bets for Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
Full-Game Side Bet
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A couple of weeks ago, the Aces dominated the Sparks from start to finish. Las Vegas went 12-for-25 from downtown and committed seven fewer turnovers than Los Angeles (18-11). A’ja Wilson tortured the Sparks for 35 points and 13 rebounds, while Kelsey Plum scored 17 points on a poor 6-for-19 shooting from the field.
I expect another dominant performance from Wilson and the Aces. They can only play better than they did against the Valkyries last time out. The Sparks have struggled to defend all season, and this is a nice opportunity for the struggling Las Vegas offense to get things going.
Full-Game Total Pick
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As I mentioned in the intro, the first season meeting between these two teams flew over the 166.5-point line. The Aces took full advantage of the Sparks’ defensive flaws and hit 12 triples while scoring 28 points off turnovers. Interestingly, the Sparks outscored the Aces in the paint 46-32 despite A’ja Wilson’s monster display.
Both Los Angeles and Las Vegas love to get to the free-throw line. Neither side plays at a fast pace, but that won’t stop me from betting the over. Four of their previous five encounters have gone over.
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