Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction and Picks - July 10, 2024

Author: The Viking Last Updated: July 10, 2024 Game Start: 3:30pm EST

Dallas Wings (5-17) vs. Phoenix Mercury (11-10) 

The WNBA betting action continues Wednesday, July 10, 2024, with five games around the league, so we are breaking down the Western Conference showdown from Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona, to get you the best Wings vs. Mercury pick. 

Dallas and Phoenix wrap up their four-game regular-season series, and the Mercury aim for their third straight victory over the Wings. Phoenix is listed as an 8.5-point home fave, while the total sits at 174.5 points.  

Let’s get into your favorite WNBA picks for tonight’s matchup between Dallas and Phoenix.   

The Dallas Wings are coming off a heavy loss

The Dallas Wings have gone 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS over their last five games overall. After dropping three straight contests against the Seattle Storm 97-76 and 95-71, and the Phoenix Mercury 104-96, the Wings beat the Atlanta Dream 85-82 as 4.5-point home favorites on July 5. Last Monday, the Wings lost at the Las Vegas Aces 104-85, failing to cover a 15.5-point spread. 

Dallas couldn’t cope with the Aces, who committed just nine turnovers and shot 14-for-36 from downtown. The Wings went 6-for-20 from deep while posting a 19/13 assist-to-turnover ratio. Odyssey Sims led the way for Dallas with 25 points and five assists, and Natasha Howard had 14 points, eight rebounds, and four dishes. Arike Ogunbowale (23.1 PPG this season) went just 4-for-13 from the field, finishing the game with a line of 13 points, six boards, four dimes, and three steals. 

The Wings are tied with the Los Angeles Sparks for the worst record in the league. Dallas ranks eighth in the WNBA in adjusted offensive efficiency (101.2 points per 100 possessions) and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency (111.5). The Wings are dead last in the league in defensive rebound percentage (72.4%) and opposing 2-point percentage (51.3%). 

The Mercury shoot for their third straight W

The Phoenix Mercury snapped a two-game skid with a 104-96 road victory over the Dallas Wings on July 3. Four days later, the Mercury outlasted the Los Angeles Sparks 84-78 as 4-point road favorites, tallying their second straight SU and ATS victory. 

The Mercury turned the ball over 16 times in LA. However, they held the Sparks to 38.7% shooting from the field and 20.8% from downtown (5-for-24). Phoenix outrebounded Los Angeles 38-29 and made 45.8% of its field goals (7-for-21 from deep). Natasha Cloud accounted for a career-high 31 points, while Kahleah Copper posted a 25-point, 10-rebound double-double. 

Phoenix holds the No. 6 seed in the WNBA. The Mercury score 103.4 points per 100 possessions (5th in the league) while surrendering 105.7 points in return (9th). They are tenth in the league in defensive rebound percentage (74.0%) and 11th in offensive rebound percentage (11th). 

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Best Bets for Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Wings are a bad defensive team. Last Wednesday, the Mercury shot 55.4% from the field and 47.8% from beyond the 3-point line (11-for-23) in that eight-point victory at Dallas. Kahleah Copper tortured the Wings for 34 points on 14-for-20 shooting from the field, and Phoenix committed just nine turnovers. 

The Mercury are not a great defensive team, but they have a ton of offensive firepower and should overwhelm the Wings. I cannot back Dallas because of its defense, so give me Phoenix and points. The Mercury are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, whereas the Wings have only covered once in their previous nine. 

Prediction: Phoenix Mercury -8.5 (-110)

Full-Game Total Pick

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Dallas and Phoenix combined for 200 points last Wednesday, and we saw 57 free throws in total. Each of their previous three encounters this season has gone over the total, so I would ride this betting trend. Moreover, the over has hit in seven of the Wings’ last eight outings at any location. 

Both teams struggle to defend and prefer to play at a fast pace. The Wings register 79.1 possessions per 40 minutes (5th in the WNBA), and the Mercury record 79.3 possessions per 40 minutes (3rd). I expect another high-scoring meeting between Dallas and Phoenix. 

Prediction: Go over 174.5 points (-110)

Author Profile

Viktor Allenson , "The Viking"

Viktor "The Viking" Allenson has been slaying the books for many years now. He has hammered the lines in all sports including basketball, football, soccer, MMA and baseball. The Viking's strength is his versatility and research in all sports. He also has the ability to find soft lines that the public loves and goes the other way.