Upcoming Free Picks

Horse Racing

Expert Who Proclaimed Justify Would Win Triple Crown Back in April Does Complete 180; States: “It's Bombs Away In Preakness”

Preakness Longshot Winner and Exotic Betting Strategies

Horse Racing

May 16th

Here’s what Carlos “The Clocker” has to say:

While I have been the lead driver of the Justify bandwagon for months now, I’ve got to say “Whoa Nellie” on anointing him as the next great thoroughbred after examining the race a little bit further. I’m saying it now: The 143rd Preakness is going to be remembered for blowing up the tote board with big prices. I know, this is a 180 degree turn from what I said before the Derby, but let’s look at some of the facts about Justify and Good Magic, the two favorites.

Immediately after the Derby, Justify’s soundness was called into question when some Sunday morning observers said the horse was lame. Trainer Bob Baffert laughed it off, claiming Justify had what amounted to “horsey diaper rash” on his hind legs. No really - Baffert said it was a rash. Soon after being taken to task over that truly unbelievable comment, Baffert then said the horse had a bruised hoof from walking on gravel that morning. Oh, really? Baffert wants us to believe Justify went from a rash to a bruise in less than 12 hours? The truth is there is some physical issue here. A horseshoe specialist was even flown up from Florida to affix a new shoe on the aforementioned hoof. No official word as to whether Boudreaux’s Butt Paste was credited with clearing up Justify’s diaper rash.

Physical issues aside, a closer look at the running of the Derby itself, specifically the internal fractional times and the way it was run, needs to be mentioned. The Derby pace was the fastest in recent memory with a sub 46 half-mile time. Remember the horses that came back to win the Preakness after running a sub 46 half mile in the Derby? Neither do I, because there are none. This type of physical exertion takes a lot out of a horse. The finishing time of the Derby was one of the slowest in history. A fast early and slow late pace is opposite of what a handicapper wants to see from a horse. Could this be the first sign that the horses close to the pace, like Justify and Good Magic, were feeling the effects of that fast time and taxing track? I think so.

Finally, horses like familiar routines and timing. Running back on two weeks of rest is not a normal routine for a horse. It can disrupt them mentally and physically, especially after an all-out effort like what Justify and Good Magic put out in the Derby.

All of this can be summed up in one four-letter word: Toss! I’m tossing Justify and Good Magic from the win spot to make a lifetime score on other runners. I did the same thing in the Big Brown Belmont Stakes, where foot issues and tough efforts were whispered about Big Brown before the Belmont. He ran out of the money and the track had to back up a Brinks truck to pay bettors who tossed Big Brown, which included yours truly.

Preakness Prediction

Six other horses have a shot to win. The two Derby also-rans certainly have a case to make. Lone Sailor tipped his readiness with a pre-Derby blazing workout, but wasn’t able to showcase his newfound speed and maturity in the Derby on the off track. There were just too many horses to navigate through. Bravazo boasts trainer D Wayne Lukas’ success in the Preakness with Derby also-rans, and Oxbow scored for bettors at 13-1 just a few years ago. The ones I’m interested in are the new shooters Diamond King and Tenfold.

Diamond King has been pointed for this race from early on. He is a horse that likes to win and is nearly fast enough to warrant consideration based on previous speed figures. He has been in Maryland for months and is trained by John Servis , who has a Preakness win with Smarty Jones. Diamond King is improving and the distance is right up his alley. He’s a big win contender at big odds.

The other horse that will run big is Tenfold. Steve Asmussen does not enter horses in big races just to be on TV. He enters when he believes a horse has a legitimate shot to win. Tenfold has that legitimate shot to win because his recent form cycle screams, “I’m going to run the race of my life!” Tested against stout competition in the Arkansas Derby, Tenfold stayed close to the slow pace set by Magnum Moon, but all horses just ran in place in the stretch. The fact that Tenfold was able to hold his position touted his talent, and the workouts since have been superb. Tenfold will outrun his odds.

Here’s the wager. I’m using Tenfold and Diamond King on top of Justify, Good Magic, Bravazo and Lone Sailor in exactas and trifectas. I will make an extra Diamond King and Tenfold exacta box. I’m also going to box Tenfold, Diamond King, Bravazo and Lone Sailor in exacta s and trifectas just in case the two big Derby horses react bigly and run out of the money. If they do, and if I’m right, I hope Pimlico has a Brinks truck with extra cash to pay out the huge winnings on these bets.

Insider's Account Required

With your 100% Free Insider's Membership, you gain access to this and other exclusive content!

Login

Forgot Password?
Forgot your password? Enter your email and we'll send you a reset token:

Return to login
Enter the token from your email and a new password. Don't forget to check your spam folder if you didn't get the email.

Upcoming Free Picks

Bank the Bet Podcast
Thursday, Aug 16
NFL
#401 Eagles
#402 Patriots
7:30pm
View Pick
#403 Jets
#404 Redskins
8:00pm
View Pick
#405 Steelers
#406 Packers
8:00pm
View Pick
MLB
#951 Mets
#952 Phillies
4:05pm
View Pick
#953 Mets
#954 Phillies
7:05pm
View Pick
#955 Cubs -120
#956 Pirates 8.5
7:05pm
View Pick
#957 Nationals 8.5
#958 Cardinals -125
7:15pm
View Pick
#959 Rockies -110
#960 Braves 8.5
7:35pm
View Pick
#965 Angels 11
#966 Rangers -125
8:05pm
View Pick
#967 Tigers 9.5
#968 Twins -165
8:10pm
View Pick
#969 Blue Jays -125
#970 Royals 9
8:15pm
View Pick
#961 Diamondbacks -135
#962 Padres 8
10:10pm
View Pick
Friday, Aug 17
NFL
#407 Giants
#408 Lions
7:00pm
View Pick
#409 Chiefs
#410 Falcons
7:00pm
View Pick
#411 Dolphins
#412 Panthers
7:30pm
View Pick
#413 Bills
#414 Browns
7:30pm
View Pick
#415 Cardinals
#416 Saints
8:00pm
View Pick
MLB
#901 Mets
#902 Phillies
6:05pm
View Pick
#915 Blue Jays
#916 Yankees
7:05pm
View Pick
#909 Rockies
#910 Braves
7:35pm
View Pick
#925 Royals
#926 White Sox
8:10pm
View Pick
#911 Brewers
#912 Cardinals
8:15pm
View Pick
#927 Astros
#928 A's
10:05pm
View Pick
#913 Diamondbacks
#914 Padres
10:10pm
View Pick
Saturday, Aug 18
NFL
#417 Jaguars
#418 Vikings
1:00pm
View Pick
#419 Raiders
#420 Rams
4:00pm
View Pick
#421 Bengals
#422 Cowboys
7:00pm
View Pick
#423 49ers
#424 Texans
8:00pm
View Pick
#425 Buccaneers
#426 Titans
8:00pm
View Pick
#427 Bears
#428 Broncos
9:05pm
View Pick
#429 Seahawks
#430 Chargers
10:00pm
View Pick
Monday, Aug 20
NFL
#431 Ravens
#432 Colts
8:00pm
View Pick